[Weds]: “More weakness in the cash market, combined with a significant drop in beef prices has added to the bearish tone,” The Hightower Report said. There are also worries about demand, as restaurants have seen a sharp reduction in demand as well as less travel in the wake of coronavirus spreading… [Tues]: Boxed beef cutout values this afternoon were lower on Choice and higher on Select… Choice was down $1.08… Select was up 83 cents… In negotiated cash sales in Nebraska, the USDA reported 2,262 head sold live for $119-120, and 200 head sold dressed for $190. In Iowa-Minnesota, there were no reported live sales, and 83 head sold dressed for $190-193… From a technical perspective, cattle markets were oversold and due to tick back up, but it will likely take a rise in the beef market to sustain such a move… 

 

Farm Commodity Newsletter/Iowa Farmer Today

 

Wed 2/12/2020 8:30 AM

 

Cattle - “More weakness in the cash market, combined with a significant drop in beef prices has added to the bearish tone,” The Hightower Report said. There are also worries about demand, as restaurants have seen a sharp reduction in demand as well as less travel in the wake of coronavirus spreading.

 

“It will take a bounce in the beef market in order to spark some buying,” The Hightower Report said. Expect support for April’s cattle contract around $116.70, with resistance at $118.87 and $119.42.

 

Livestock looking for price bounce

 

While oversold, the cattle market is dealing with a lower cash market and weak beef prices, as they continue to watch the long liquidation trend continue, The Hightower Report said.

 

Supply continues to be an issue for lean hogs as well, as The Hightower Report noted that the hog market “continues to struggle to absorb short-term burdensome supply.” They said sellers in the hog market will stay active as futures move down closer to the cash prices.

 

Tue 2/11/2020 4:35 PM

 

Boxed beef cutout values this afternoon were lower on Choice and higher on Select on light to moderate demand and offerings, the USDA said.

 

Choice was down $1.08 to $207.83/cwt.

Select was up 83 cents to $204.53.

 

In negotiated cash sales in Nebraska, the USDA reported 2,262 head sold live for $119-120, and 200 head sold dressed for $190. In Iowa-Minnesota, there were no reported live sales, and 83 head sold dressed for $190-193.

 

“Concerns that coronavirus will have a negative impact on the global economy are still widespread,” Stewart-Peterson said. “If travel and restaurant demand pull back, there could be an even greater oversupply in the near term. Today’s USDA Supply and Demand report increased Q1 and Q2 beef production but reduced Q3 and Q4 production.”

 

From a technical perspective, cattle markets were oversold and due to tick back up, but it will likely take a rise in the beef market to sustain such a move. “The market is technically oversold, but it will take a bounce in the beef market in order to spark some buying,” the Hightower Report said.

 

Cattle closes near lows

 

"April cattle closed sharply lower on the day and closed near the lows,” the Hightower Report said. “This was the lowest close since Sept. 24. Continued concerns with sluggish demand for beef short-term, along with the outlook for very heavy supplies into the second quarter, have helped hold the market in a long liquidation selling trend.”

 

“April hogs closed moderately lower on the session but well up from the lows,” the Hightower Report said. “The market seems to have the short term supply fundamentals to see at least a little less burdensome supply on the US market, especially if the export market gets even more active.”

 

February WASDE uneventful

 

“Typically the February corn report is a non-event and today certainly proved that to once again be the case,” Stewart-Peterson said. “…The gist of the report is that it was neutral. Specifically, projected carryout from January was unchanged at 1.892 bln bushels. The market may have been looking for slightly less with the average estimate of 1.856.”

 

“Today was pretty mundane for having a USDA monthly supply and demand report out,” Ami Heesch, with CHS Hedging, said. “There were cuts to the soybean and wheat ending stocks, but the cuts did not appear to impress the trade. Trade has been slow since the trade war began and does not seem to have picked up since the Phase One Trade Agreement was signed."

 

Corn

 

“Corn prices fell on weakness in the wheat market and a reduction in exports from the USDA supply and demand report out this morning,” Ami Heesch, with CHS Hedging, said. “The South American crop is expected to be of decent size, allowing for ample amount of supplies for exports.”

 

“Corn futures traded marginally lower,” Steve Freed, with ADM Investor Services, said. “Talk that Argentina corn prices for export are now a discount to US offered resistance. Fact USDA left US 2029/20 carryout unchanged from January offered some resistance. USDA lowered US 2019/20 corn exports 50 mln bu. and raised ethanol use 50 mln bu.”

 

Soybeans

 

“Much like the corn market, today’s report and reaction was absolutely a non-event,” Stewart-Peterson said. “…Today’s projected carryout came in at 424 mln bushels, below the pre-report estimate of 448 mln and down from the January estimate of 475 mln. This was supportive but a 125 mln metric tonne forecast for the Brazilian crop was larger than expected.”

 

"Soybean prices garnered support after the release of the USDA’s monthly supply and demand report,” Ami Heesch, with CHS Hedging, said. “Gains were limited from ideas of a record bean harvest in Brazil and a decent crop expected out of Argentina. Prices drew additional support from talk that the number of corona virus cases has begun to slow down.”

 

Wheat

 

“Wheat prices were on the defensive, despite a reduction in ending stocks and a hike in exports for most all classes of wheat,” Ami Heesch, with CHS Hedging, said. “Egypt bought another slug of wheat from the Black Sea Region… We may have seen a haircut to the ending stocks, but the world is not hurting for supplies of wheat.”

 

“Wheat futures traded lower led by Chicago,” Steve Freed, with ADM Investor Services said. “Talk commercials may be shipping spring wheat to Chicago for delivery plus fact Egypt bought Russia and Romanian wheat in their tender offered resistance. USDA lowered US 2019/20 wheat carryout 25 mln bu. due to higher exports. Exports were increased, mostly in spring wheat.”

 

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