In this file:
· USDA raises 2020 beef, pork production outlooks
· USDA Releases February World Supply and Demand Report
USDA raises 2020 beef, pork production outlooks
By John Perkins, Brownfield
February 11, 2020
The USDA has increased 2020 production projections for most major proteins.
Beef was up 40 million pounds at 24.480 billion on higher rates of slaughter and heavier weights, but the kill pace is expected to decline in the second half of the year because of tighter market ready numbers. The USDA lowered exports slightly, increased per capita beef consumption slightly, and sees the average steer price at $117 per hundredweight, $.50 less than in January.
Pork production was 240 million pounds above a month ago at 28.885 billion on expectations for higher slaughter rates and heavier carcass weights, also increasing exports by 275 million pounds to 7.375 billion, while cutting imports and per capita pork consumption. The average barrow and gilt price is pegged at $49 per hundredweight, a drop of $5.50 on the month.
Broiler production was 375 million pounds higher at 45.775 billion with the USDA citing recent hatchery data and also raising the per capita consumption projection, while increasing the price outlook a half a penny to $.87 per pound.
USDA Releases February World Supply and Demand Report
via Andy Eubank, Hoosier Ag Today - Feb 11, 2020
LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY:
The 2020 forecast for total red meat and poultry production is raised from last month on higher forecast beef, pork, and broiler production.
The beef production forecast is raised from the previous month on higher cattle slaughter and heavier cattle weights in the first half of the year. However, the forecasts for second half beef production is reduced on lower anticipated steer and heifer slaughter in the second half of the year. This reflects a smaller number of cattle outside feedlots implied by the January 1 Cattle report which results in lower placements during 2020.
Pork production is raised on higher expected hog slaughter and heavier carcass weights. Broiler production is raised on recent hatchery data which shows continued growth in the laying flock. The turkey production forecast is decreased as hatchery data points toward slower expected production growth. Forecast egg production is increased. Estimates of 2019 red meat, poultry, and egg production are adjusted to reflect December data.
For 2020, the beef export forecast is lowered slightly reflecting weakness in several markets, but no change is made to the beef import forecast.
The pork export forecast is raised from last month on expected robust global demand.
The turkey export forecast is reduced from last month. Broiler and egg trade forecasts are unchanged for 2020. Livestock, poultry and egg trade estimates for 2019 are adjusted to reflect December trade data.
Fed-cattle prices for the first quarter of 2020 are lowered from last month on recent prices.
Hog price forecasts are reduced from last month on increased production. Broiler, turkey, and egg price forecasts are raised from the previous month as demand remains strong.
The milk production forecast for 2020 is unchanged from last month. The 2020 fat basis export and import forecasts are unchanged from the previous month. On a skim-solids basis, the import forecast is unchanged while the export forecast is raised on the strength of international demand for nonfat dry milk/skim milk powder. Dairy supply and use estimates for 2019 are adjusted to reflect December data.
Annual product price forecasts for cheese and butter are lowered from the previous month as demand remains relatively weak. The 2020 nonfat dry milk forecast is unchanged while the whey price forecast is raised from last month. The Class III price is reduced on the lower cheese price forecast while the Class IV price is reduced, reflecting a lower butter price forecast. The 2020 all milk price forecast is reduced to $18.85 per cwt.
This month’s 2019/20 U.S. corn outlook is little changed relative to last month, with offsetting changes to exports and corn used for ethanol. Exports are lowered 50 million bushels, reflecting the slow pace of shipments through January. Offsetting is a 50 million bushel increase in corn used for ethanol, based on Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production data through December and the robust pace of weekly ethanol production data as reported by the Energy Information Administration during the month of January. With no other use changes, U.S. corn ending stocks are unchanged from last month. The season average corn price received by producers is also unchanged at $3.85 per bushel.
Global coarse grain production for 2019/20 is projected 0.9 million tons higher to 1,402.7 million. This month’s foreign coarse grain outlook is for larger production and consumption, and lower stocks relative to last month. Global corn production is raised 0.8 million tons, with increases for South Africa, Moldova, and Ukraine more than offsetting a reduction for Vietnam. For South Africa, production is higher as timely rainfall during the month of January improves yield prospects.
Major global trade changes for 2019/20 include higher projected corn exports for South Africa, Ukraine, and the EU, with a largely offsetting reduction for the United States. Corn imports are raised for Turkey and Brazil, with the latter reflecting larger-than-expected shipments to livestock production areas in the southern part of the country. Foreign corn ending stocks are down from last month, mostly reflecting reductions for Vietnam, Brazil, Paraguay, and the EU. Global corn ending stocks, at 296.8 million tons, are down 1.0 million from last month.