[Tues]: Price action moving lower in the cash cattle markets last week was “not too much of a surprise,” Allendale said, moving only $1 lower… Demand issues continue to be the thorn in the paw of the cattle market, The Hightower Report said. Any sort of recovery bounce could be limited by an oversupply, and second-quarter beef supply “looks burdensome,” they said… [Mon]: Boxed beef cutout values this afternoon were lower on Choice and steady on Select… Choice was down $1.21… Select fell 19 cents… In negotiated cash sales in Nebraska, there was no reportable trade, the USDA said. In Iowa-Minnesota, there were no reported live sales, and 38 head sold dressed for $190. “Most traders are concerned over short-term beef demand, especially with beef values falling to their lowest level since early to mid-January,” Stewart-Peterson said. “Cash cattle drifted lower last week and beef production was higher. Still, packers are making money and export sales totals lately have been strong”… 

 

Farm Commodity Newsletter/Iowa Farmer Today

 

Tue 2/11/2020 8:31 AM

 

Cattle - Price action moving lower in the cash cattle markets last week was “not too much of a surprise,” Allendale said, moving only $1 lower. “There is now a little distance from the $124 peak from last month.”

 

Demand issues continue to be the thorn in the paw of the cattle market, The Hightower Report said. Any sort of recovery bounce could be limited by an oversupply, and second-quarter beef supply “looks burdensome,” they said.

 

Cattle 'vulnerable' to liquidation, hogs probing for low

 

April cattle contracts “look vulnerable to some additional long liquidation selling,” The Hightower Report said, as there is no sign of strength in the beef market. The market continues to be oversold, but traders can’t seem to shake the pressure of the long liquidation trend amidst uncertain demand.

 

The hog market “is probing for a short term low” at the moment, The Hightower Report said. Production continues to weight on the markets, despite Chinese prices continuing to rise “mainly from the inability of buyers to get product to their location,” The Hightower Report said.

 

Mon 2/10/2020 4:40 PM

 

Boxed beef cutout values this afternoon were lower on Choice and steady on Select on light to moderate demand and moderate to heavy offerings, the USDA said.

 

Choice was down $1.21 to $208.91/cwt.

Select fell 19 cents to $203.70.

 

In negotiated cash sales in Nebraska, there was no reportable trade, the USDA said. In Iowa-Minnesota, there were no reported live sales, and 38 head sold dressed for $190.

 

“Most traders are concerned over short-term beef demand, especially with beef values falling to their lowest level since early to mid-January,” Stewart-Peterson said. “Cash cattle drifted lower last week and beef production was higher. Still, packers are making money and export sales totals lately have been strong.”

 

On the technical picture, cattle appear oversold.

 

“April live cattle are sharply oversold according to stochastics but cannot seem to attract any buyers at current levels,” Stewart-Peterson said. “March feeder cattle are testing their 10-day moving average resistance level, and a close above would be the first since Feb. 4 and only the second since Jan. 14.”

 

Hogs down on high production

 

“April cattle closed sharply lower on the day and experienced the lowest close since Oct. 1,” the Hightower Report said. “While the market is oversold and may be due for some type of a technical bounce, the lower and sloppy action in the beef market, plus continued concerns of a slowdown in restaurant business and travel, has helped to pressure the market.”

 

Hogs were down on production concerns.

 

“April hogs closed sharply lower on the session and back down near Friday’s lows,” the Hightower Report said. “Weakness in pork cut-out values continues to be a drag, as the market attempts to absorb much higher than expected pork production in the U.S.”

 

Soybeans gain on quiet day

 

“Quiet day in the ag markets ahead of the USDA’s monthly Supply and Demand report tomorrow at 11 a.m.,” Ami Heesch, with CHS Hedging, said Monday afternoon.

 

While the U.S. dollar continued to show decent strength since the start of February, Heesch reported the news Monday was the U.S. and China said they would honor their respective commitments in the phase one trade agreement.

 

“Soybeans and soymeal traded higher,” Steve Freed, with ADM Investor Services, said. “There were rumors that China may have bought 2-3 cargoes of U.S. new-crop soybeans. Word that the world’s largest shipper of soymeal filed for bankruptcy in Argentina may have also helped soymeal gain on soy oil."

 

Corn

 

Corn markets drifted lower on Monday as traders waited for fresh good news to lift them.

 

“Corn prices traded lower on a bout of profit taking after last week’s strength,” Ami Heesch, with CHS Hedging, said. “The corn market appears to be rangebound and in need of some fresh supportive news.”

 

“South American weather has been non-threatening, the U.S. dollar is trading at its highest level since Oct. 10, and the Brazilian real made new all-time lows this morning,” Stewart-Peterson reported. “Many traders are also worried that while U.S. corn ending stocks may come in a bit lower on tomorrow’s report, global ending stocks are expected to grow.”

 

Soybeans

 

Soybean prices shook off midsession pressure and climbed up to a new one and a half week high, but lost momentum late in the day to finish Monday's trading session with only a modest gain, the Hightower Report said.

 

“Reports of Chinese officials telling the U.S. that they will meet their phase one ag purchase targets after delay provided the soy complex with support,” the Hightower Report said.

 

Improving demand for soybeans helped push the market higher, Ami Heesch, with CHS Hedging, said.

 

“Prices drew support from China’s announcement that they would look to reduce current tariff rates on some U.S. ag products, including soybeans, by the end of this week,” she said.

 

Wheat

 

“Wheat prices trade on the defensive without a lot of fresh supportive news,” Ami Heesch, with CHS Hedging, said. “There seems to be enough routine business around to keep exports doing fairly well, despite the fact that China has reportedly been a big buyer of Canadian, Australian and French wheat over the past weeks.”

 

Overall wheat exports for the season were running ahead of last year’s pace, Steve Freed, with ADM Investor Services, said.

 

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