[Mon]: … coronavirus has delayed the launch of new pig breeding facilities in China, putting “even more pressure on China’s pork supplies and prices,” according to officials in the country, Allendale said. “China has released 10,000 tonnes of frozen pork from its strategic reserve. They are also aiming to raise imports to alleviate shortages”… [Fri]: National carcass base was 18 cents lower… USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon were down 54 cents… “Hogs are the big story today,” Virginia McGathey, McGathey Commodities, said. “They rallied again. The exports to China are finally on the rise… Hopes are back on the table now that African Swine Fever issues are starting to really be realized, and we’re going to start to move some of the pork overseas”…

 

Farm Commodity Newsletter/Iowa Farmer Today

 

Mon 2/10/2020 8:42 AM

 

Lean hogs - The outbreak of the coronavirus has delayed the launch of new pig breeding facilities in China, putting “even more pressure on China’s pork supplies and prices,” according to officials in the country, Allendale said. “China has released 10,000 tonnes of frozen pork from its strategic reserve. They are also aiming to raise imports to alleviate shortages.”

 

The Hightower Report noted the pressure on Chinese prices, as the average spot pig price was up 2.75% over the weekend, up 6.32% for the month and 14.1% up for the year to date. “The market is still being supported by very strong monthly exports for the month of December and a huge sales book for 2020 for China,” they said.

 

Hogs staying optimistic

 

Despite some weakness in the stock market, hog strength seemed to offset trade on Friday, The Hightower Report said, with hopes for the Chinese market to step in soon. Production in the pork industry is up 8.1% from last year, they said, making it difficult for the market to absorb the supply in the domestic market.

 

African Swine Fever infections has now spread to the south of the Philippines, Allendale said, into areas that produce roughly one-third of the 12.8 mln pigs from the country.

 

Fri 2/7/2020 4:49 PM

 

In weighted average negotiated prices for barrows and gilts, USDA reported;

 

National carcass base was 18 cents lower to $50.01/cwt.

National live was down 52 cents to $38.67

Iowa-Minnesota carcass base was $48.71, with no comparison from the prior day.

 

USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon were down 54 cents from $64.81/cwt.

 

“Hogs are the big story today,” Virginia McGathey, McGathey Commodities, said. “They rallied again. The exports to China are finally on the rise… Hopes are back on the table now that African Swine Fever issues are starting to really be realized, and we’re going to start to move some of the pork overseas.”

 

“Weekly export sales data was pretty neutral yesterday but the sales commitments to China for 2020 have reached 308,880 tons as compared with the five-year average for this time of the year at 27,577 tonnes,” the Hightower Report said. “China prices are high enough and US supply big enough and US price low enough to expect active sales ahead.”

 

Cattle choppy, hogs higher

 

Cattle markets were choppy, with forces acting on both sides. “April cattle closed just slightly higher on the day after choppy and two-sided trade,” the Hightower Report said. “Strength in the hog market helped to offset weakness in the stock market and concerns over short-term demand for beef given the expanding virus issues around the world.”

 

Strong export numbers helped drive hog markets higher Friday. “April hogs closed sharply higher on the day and pushed up to the highest level since Jan. 30,” the Hightower Report said. “The market is still being supported by very strong monthly exports for the month of December and a huge sales book for 2020 for China.”

 

Market watching weather, coronavirus

 

“The grain markets have been trading rangebound from non-threatening weather in South America and the ongoing spread of the coronavirus throughout the Chinese provinces,” Ami Heesch, with CHS Hedging, said. “While China allegedly pledges to honor the increased purchases of US goods, they have not yet stepped up to the plate.”

 

“The U.S. Agriculture Department's closely watched monthly supply and demand forecast will not include Phase 1 trade details about China's purchase commitments from the recently inked deal, the agency's top economist said,” ADM Investor Services said. “USDA analysts have not been told buying targets for each farm product included in the trade deal.”

 

Corn

 

“The corn market traded in positive territory on a bout of short covering ahead of the weekend,” Ami Heesch, with CHS Hedging, said. “The March contract traded in a nine-cent trading range this week. Fresh news was light and optimism over Phase One Trade Agreement purchases swayed back and forth all week. Non-threatening weather in South America weighed on prices.”

 

Corn sales were running behind last year’s pace and the USDA’s projections, as analysts watched for fresh positive news to support corn markets. “For the week ended Jan. 30, U.S. Corn sales are running 29% behind a year ago, shipments 42% behind with the USDA forecasting a 14% decline,” ADM Investor Services said.

 

Soybeans

 

"Soybean prices turned higher on a bout of technical buying and short covering,” Ami Heesch, with CHS Hedging, said. “The March contract saw a nine-two cent drop from Jan 2 to Feb 3 (9.61-8.68 ¾). The soybeans appear to be stuck in a 10-20 cent range from near record to record harvest in Brazil to Chinese optimism (that they will prove true on their trade deal).”

 

“The South American weather forecast for Brazil has rainfall amounts differing for growing regions over the next 6 to 10 days,” ADM Investor Services said. “The Argentine weather forecast has things quiet into much of next week with another front seen bringing light to moderate rainfall to most growing regions by the end of next week.”

 

Wheat

 

“For the week ended Jan. 30, U.S. all wheat sales are running 19% ahead of a year ago, shipments up 29% with the USDA forecasting a 4% increase on the year,” ADM Investor Services said. "By class, HRW wheat sales are up 41%, shipments 61% ahead with a USDA forecast of a 16% increase.”

 

"The wheat market traded higher on a bout of short covering ahead of the weekend,” Ami Heesch, with CHS Hedging, said. “It has been a tough go for the wheat market this week. Demand is slow, optimism is waning over possible Chinese demand for US wheat and the winter wheat crop is getting beneficial moisture.”

 

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