[Fri]: Hightower says there is “a general sense that the hog market is cheap enough to clean up short-term burdensome supply, and that China demand will be strong enough to provide underlined support.” Pork production is higher than most anticipated, and traders believe U.S. supplies should begin to lessen… [Thurs]: National carcass base up 28 cents… Iowa-Minnesota carcass down 21 cents… USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon were up 5 cents… April lean hogs were limit up today, closing at $64.87 Thursday. Hightower says “ideas that pork production will gradually decline in the weeks ahead at the same time China pork buying turns more active” helped boost buying. Pork cutout values were up nearly $2, Hightower says…
Farm Commodity Newsletter/Iowa Farmer Today
Fri 2/7/2020 8:58 AM
Lean hogs - Hightower says there is “a general sense that the hog market is cheap enough to clean up short-term burdensome supply, and that China demand will be strong enough to provide underlined support.” Pork production is higher than most anticipated, and traders believe U.S. supplies should begin to lessen over the near-term.
Total Farm Marketing says “technically, hog markets are still oversold, and speculators could be able to move hogs higher to begin filling overhead gaps left on the charts during the recent price plunge.”
Recovery bounce could happen in cattle
A hook reversal from oversold cattle could spark a recovery bounce, says The Hightower Report. “The reversal action could help support a short-term bounce in the cattle market,” Hightower said. “However, demand issues remain a significant concern.” A stronger tone in the market may be necessary to see much of a recovery.
Hog futures are expected to be higher again today, according to Total Farm Marketing. They said “global optimism regarding coronavirus containment, as well as China’s willingness to work with the U.S. on ag purchases, could continue to push prices higher.
Thu 2/6/2020 4:48 PM
In weighted average negotiated prices for barrows and gilts, USDA reported;
National carcass base up 28 cents to $50.29/cwt.
National live down 58 cents to $39.65/cwt.
Iowa-Minnesota carcass down 21 cents to $39.74/cwt.
USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon were up 5 cents to $65.35/cwt.
April lean hogs were limit up today, closing at $64.87 Thursday. Hightower says “ideas that pork production will gradually decline in the weeks ahead at the same time China pork buying turns more active” helped boost buying. Pork cutout values were up nearly $2, Hightower says.
Lower Chinese tariffs also had a positive impact on hog prices, says Stewart-Peterson. “Hog markets are also sharply oversold, which means futures are increasingly sensitive to positive news,” they said. More pork sent to China should provide an even bigger bounce.”
Hog futures close limit up
After opening lower this morning, a steady flow of buying helped lean hog prices close limit up at the end of trading. The Hightower Report says weekly export sales continue to bring positive news to the market, and December export data was seen as supportive.
Stewart-Peterson says while packer margins are currently positive, but many expect beef supplies to continue to grow into the second quarter. Those estimates are likely curbing much of the enthusiasm in the live cattle market.
China tariff cuts support beans
Corn prices moved off a three-week low, but still closed down Thursday. Hightower says Brazil’s second season crop is seeing strong growing conditions, providing pressure to the market. Argentina’s corn planting is at nearly 99 percent, up from 97 percent last week
Headlines that China was reducing tariffs for certain U.S. goods offered support for the bean market. ADM Ag Market View says soybean exports for the week were higher than expected at 703 MT.
March corn closed down 1 ½ cents at $3.79, with May corn down 2 cents at $3.84 ½. Hightower says “ongoing reports indicated that the coronavirus has yet to be contained, which diminishes the chances for U.S. exports of corn and DDGs during the first half of 2020.”
ADM Ag Market View says talk of China buying corn from Ukraine and other countries is likely pressuring prices. “This could be part of an existing agreement, but would be counted as part of their TRQ deal,” they said.
March soybeans were up 1 cent to $8.81, while May beans closed at $8.94 ¾, up 1 ¼ cents. Hightower says bean prices were strong early Thursday, but couldn’t hang on to gains. Meal prices had a positive price reversal with a modest gain, while oil prices fell back from a new one-week high.
Barchart.com says good weather in South America and talk of a bigger U.S. crop in 2020 is limiting any upside in bean futures. Exports remain decent, with Egypt and the Netherlands among the biggest buyers of soybeans.
March wheat finished down 5 ¾ cents to $5.56 ¼, with May wheat down 5 ½ cents to $5.53 ½. Kansas City wheat fell back from a new high, says Hightower. Losses were modest in Minneapolis. Improving weather in Russia and Ukraine has also pressured wheat prices.
Wheat bookings from the weekly update to USDA’s export sales report were 338,559 MT for the week ending Jan. 30. Barchart.com says that represents nearly a 48 percent decrease from last week and over a 45 percent decrease from a year ago.