Pork Commentary

 

Jim Long, President-CEO, Genesus Inc.

January 13th, 2020

 

First Week of January

 

Our Observations

U.S. hog slaughter continued unabated with 2,713,000 last week, jumping up from the two holiday-shortened weeks previous. We do expect weekly hog marketings to drop soon and/or hog weights to decline rapidly.

U.S. average cash early weans were steady at $61.46 while 40 lb feeder pigs jumped $6.00, up to $67.60. The canary in the coal mine is small pigs, a reflection of supply and demand. They have shown a 70% increase in the last few weeks.

U.S. pork exports in November were the best ever.

 

         Up 26% from a year ago.

         Up 11% from the previous high in July 2019

 

November Pork exports of 259,812 metric tonnes are over 3 million hog equivalent. China/Hong Kong lead way with 86,213 metric tonnes, up 284% from a year ago. We need to export and we are.

Last week (January 3rd) the German Ministry of Agriculture confirmed that African Swine Fever (ASF) was present in Poland 20-30 km (12-20 miles) from the German border. If ASF gets into Germany could be game-changer. China is importing approximately 16-18% of pork imports from Germany. Up until now, China has not been accepting any Pork from ASF countries i.e. Russia, Poland, Romania, Ukraine, etc.

The Phase 1 tariff agreement between the USA and China is reported to be signed on January 15th when a Senior Chinese delegation comes to Washington. Pork and Ag is supposedly a key component. We should see details after the signing is completed. Clarification could lead to a boost to Pork prices.

genesus.com