In this file:
· Lighter Carcass Weights Likely to Result in Lower Beef Production in 2020- Higher Poultry Output in the Pipeline
· CME: Estimates for 2020 Beef Production Revised Down Slightly
Lighter Carcass Weights Likely to Result in Lower Beef Production in 2020- Higher Poultry Output in the Pipeline
Oklahoma Farm Report
13 Jan 2020
The total red meat and poultry production forecast for 2020 increased modestly from last month as higher broiler production more than offsets lower expected beef, pork, and turkey production, USDA said in its monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report this past Friday.
The 2019 total red meat and poultry production estimate is reduced from last month as lower pork and turkey production more than offset higher beef production.
The beef production estimate is raised on the pace of late-year slaughter. The pork production estimate is reduced on the slower pace of slaughter in late 2019. The broiler production estimate is unchanged from the previous month, but the turkey production estimate is lowered or recent production data.
The 2020 beef production forecast is reduced on lighter expected carcass weights. However, quarterly beef production was increased in the first half of the year and reduced in the second half of the year due to higher-than-expected cattle placements in late 2019 and a reduced placement forecast for early 2020.
The beef import forecast is increased for 2019 on recent trade data. No change is made to the 2020 import forecast. The 2019 beef export forecast is reduced to reflect a slower export pace late in the year, but no change is made to the 2020 beef export forecast.
For 2020, the first-quarter cattle price is raised, reflecting current early-year price strength.
The pork production forecast for 2020 is reduced from the previous month. USDA’s Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report estimated the 2019 September-November pig crop 2 percent higher than the prior year which supports a higher first-half 2020 slaughter and production forecast.
The report also indicated producers intend to expand...
more, including link to the complete WASDE report
CME: Estimates for 2020 Beef Production Revised Down Slightly
via The Cattle Site - 14 January 2020
US - On 10 January 2020, USDA released a slew of reports and this DLR will highlight a few key points from select reports, writes Steiner Consulting Group, DLR Division, Inc.
Particularly the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report was released which is estimating beef production at 27.2 billion pounds for 2019, up marginally from last month. The revision is revised based on the pace of slaughter in late 2019. Estimates for 2020 production were revised down slightly for both beef and pork. Beef is expected lower due to lighter weights.
Beef and pork exports are estimated at 3.024 and 6.296 billion pounds, respectively, for 2019. Based on recently released trade data through November, this implies that December beef and pork exports are slated to be 257.2 and 655.6 million pounds, respectively. No changes were made to the 2020 beef and pork export forecasts.
Also in USDA’s WASDE report were estimates for harvested corn and soybean acres which are both down slightly to 81.5 and 75.0 million acres, respectively for the 2019/20 crop year. Yield estimates for both crops were revised up to 168.0 and 47.4 bushels per acre, respectively, which gives production forecasts of 13.692 and 3.558 billion bushels. Both production forecasts are marginally higher than last months.
USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) also released the crop production report with survey results for the US hay stocks as of 1 December 2019. National and state data were reported. For the US in total, stocks were above a year earlier (rising 5.4 million tons or by 6.9 percent). The national stock was similar to two years ago (1 December 2018). National hay disappearance between 1 May 2019 (beginning of the new crop-year) and 1 December was 59.3 million tons, that was 0.6 million tons (1.0 percent) less than a year earlier...
more, including hay stocks map, cattle-hog market data table