[Mon]: The Hightower Report said slow sales during the holidays and “ideas that the short-term supply is burdensome” is adding pressure to the lean hog trade. “Sales to China have been strong and could increase in the months just ahead, but sluggish action for the U.S. cash market is seen as a bearish force”… [Fri]: National carcass base down 43 cents… Iowa-Minnesota carcass base down $1.94… USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon fell 33 cents… Exports for lean hogs were steady week over week at 26,793 tonnes, but down from the four-week average of 35,864 tonnes, the lowest weekly total since Oct. 31. “That isn’t two surprising given the past two weeks have been interrupted by holidays,” The Hightower Report said…
Farm Commodity Newsletter/Iowa Farmer Today
Mon 1/13/2020 9:17 AM
Lean hogs - The Hightower Report said slow sales during the holidays and “ideas that the short-term supply is burdensome” is adding pressure to the lean hog trade. “Sales to China have been strong and could increase in the months just ahead, but sluggish action for the U.S. cash market is seen as a bearish force.”
A close under $74.55 in the April hog contract moved the chart pattern bearish, The Hightower Report said, suggesting “a test of the December lows and a swing objective of $69.25.”
Swine fever picking up headlines
African swine fever fears continue to garner headlines, as Germany’s government said it is concerned about wild boars in Poland that may be spreading the disease, Allendale said. “Poland has recorded 55 outbreaks of ASF in wild boars in December,” they said.
Slaughter for last week came in at 640,000 head for cattle, a 9,000 head increase from this same stretch last year, the USDA said. Hogs were pegged at a slaughter of 2.713 mln head, a 159,000 head increase from this time last year.
Fri 1/10/2020 4:35 PM
In weighted average negotiated prices for barrows and gilts, USDA reported;
National carcass base down 43 cents to $50.43/cwt.
National live rose 32 cents to $38.99
Iowa-Minnesota carcass base down $1.94 to $40.63
USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon fell 33 cents at $72.50/cwt.
Exports for lean hogs were steady week over week at 26,793 tonnes, but down from the four-week average of 35,864 tonnes, the lowest weekly total since Oct. 31. “That isn’t two surprising given the past two weeks have been interrupted by holidays,” The Hightower Report said.
Trade optimism helped the lean hog market rebound from its lows, Virginia McGathey of McGathey Commodities said. “I think the consolidation at this low level has everyone holding their breath that this deal is going to get signed,” she added.
Cash remains strong in cattle
Cattle contracts closed up near their highs today, as the markets wait for more news from the cash markets, The Hightower Report said. Export sales (8,096 tonnes) were up from last week, but well down from the four-week average (13,472 tonnes).
The lean hog market closed mostly lower on the day with a few contracts finding slightly higher closes. The day was another inside trading session, but the lowest close since Dec. 9 “is a bearish technical development,” The Hightower Report said.
Markets move slightly higher on reports
The USDA crop reports came out today, with not too many surprises. U.S. crop production for corn was pegged at 13.692 bln bushels, while soybeans were marked at 3.558 bln bushels and wheat at 1.920 bln bushels.
Grain stocks were also in line with expectations, as corn sits at 11.389 bln bushels, soybeans at 3.252 bln bushels and wheat at 1.834 bln bushels.
After the reports released, corn, soybeans and wheat all broke and then turned higher to close.
Today’s USDA report came and went today with “not a lot of fanfare,” Ami L. Heesch of CHS Hedging. She noted that with the reports, farmers in North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, Michigan and Wisconsin will be resurveyed due to delayed harvest. With the reports out of the way, “the market now looks forward to January 15 Phase One signing ceremony next week.”
Today’s report raised corn yield (168 bpa) and raised acreage (81.5 mln acres) for corn, but carryout remained largely the same, John Payne of Daniels Trading said. “The bottom line is they dropped export numbers like we thought they would, and they dropped ethanol numbers somewhat, but they raised feed residual use by 250 mln. The confirmation is huge we are feeding the heck out of the corn crop.
Overall, the lower than expected estimate of Dec. 1 corn stocks offered support to the market, ADM Investor Services said. “It offset the fact they did not lower the U.S. 2019 corn crop as much as the bulls were hoping for,” they added.
U.S. carryout numbers from today’s USDA report came in at 1.892 bln bushels for corn, slightly above the average trade guess of 1.757 bln bushels. World carryout is at 297.81 mmt.
“It was a surprise they raised the bean yields and dropped the acreage,” John Payne of Daniels Trading said. Overall, there wasn’t a big change, he said, as the report “didn’t touch on Chinese intentions.
However, continued ideas of increased demand will support soybeans despite what Ami L. Heesch of CHS Hedging called a “neutral/negative” USDA report today. “Export and below trade estimates,” she added.
U.S. carryout numbers from today’s USDA report came in at 475 mln bushels for soybeans, slightly above the average trade guess of 424 mln bushels. World carryout is at 96.67 mmt.
There are bigger than expected wheat seedings today and lower grain stocks helped the market be mixed today, Ami L. Heesch of CHS Hedging said. “The wheat rallied significantly ahead of the USDA report on crop concerns in Australia, Ukraine and Russia and low winter wheat acres in the U.S.,” she said.
In the wheat crop, funds “continue to support” ADM Investor Services said this afternoon. There has been a net long Chicago wheat position overall, and they said most fundamentalist traders “are looking for a rally in Q1 2020 to sell.”
U.S. carryout numbers from today’s USDA report came in at 965 mln bushels for wheat, slightly above the average trade guess of 1.757 bln bushels. World carryout is at 288.08 mmt.