[Mon]: Friday’s close shows indications of cash holding onto its upward momentum… despite cash trade being very slow… [Fri]: Boxed beef cutout values this afternoon were steady… Choice rose 8 cents… Select went down 13 cents… In negotiated cash sales in Nebraska, the USDA reported 1,677 head sold dressed at $200, with 400 sold live at $124. In Iowa/Minnesota, 3,247 head were sold dressed at $197-200 while 4,681 head were sold live at $124-126.25. The cattle market was “a little higher” today as there are hopes wholesale prices will continue, Virginia McGathey of McGathey Commodities said. Meanwhile she noted that a strong cash market has feeders in a firm trade at the moment…
Farm Commodity Newsletter/Iowa Farmer Today
Mon 1/13/2020 9:17 AM
Cattle - Technical action “remains positive” for the cattle market as traders are holding onto their long positions “even with the high premium to the cash market,” The Hightower Report said.
Friday’s close shows indications of cash holding onto its upward momentum, they added, despite cash trade being very slow. “The market seems too overbought and vulnerable to long liquidation selling if support levels are violated,” they noted.
Swine fever picking up headlines
African swine fever fears continue to garner headlines, as Germany’s government said it is concerned about wild boars in Poland that may be spreading the disease, Allendale said. “Poland has recorded 55 outbreaks of ASF in wild boars in December,” they said.
Slaughter for last week came in at 640,000 head for cattle, a 9,000 head increase from this same stretch last year, the USDA said. Hogs were pegged at a slaughter of 2.713 mln head, a 159,000 head increase from this time last year.
Fri 1/10/2020 4:35 PM
Boxed beef cutout values this afternoon were steady on moderate demand and heavy offerings, USDA said.
Choice rose 8 cents to $210.04/cwt.
Select went down 13 cents to $206.55.
In negotiated cash sales in Nebraska, the USDA reported 1,677 head sold dressed at $200, with 400 sold live at $124. In Iowa/Minnesota, 3,247 head were sold dressed at $197-200 while 4,681 head were sold live at $124-126.25.
The cattle market was “a little higher” today as there are hopes wholesale prices will continue, Virginia McGathey of McGathey Commodities said. Meanwhile she noted that a strong cash market has feeders in a firm trade at the moment. “The market still looks pretty strong and steadfast in holding those higher prices,” she said.
The February live cattle contracts made its second highest close over the life of the contract today, Stewart-Peterson said. “This may have turned the trend higher, though Stochastics have begun to poke into overbought levels once again.”
Cash remains strong in cattle
Cattle contracts closed up near their highs today, as the markets wait for more news from the cash markets, The Hightower Report said. Export sales (8,096 tonnes) were up from last week, but well down from the four-week average (13,472 tonnes).
The lean hog market closed mostly lower on the day with a few contracts finding slightly higher closes. The day was another inside trading session, but the lowest close since Dec. 9 “is a bearish technical development,” The Hightower Report said.
Markets move slightly higher on reports
The USDA crop reports came out today, with not too many surprises. U.S. crop production for corn was pegged at 13.692 bln bushels, while soybeans were marked at 3.558 bln bushels and wheat at 1.920 bln bushels.
Grain stocks were also in line with expectations, as corn sits at 11.389 bln bushels, soybeans at 3.252 bln bushels and wheat at 1.834 bln bushels.
After the reports released, corn, soybeans and wheat all broke and then turned higher to close.
Today’s USDA report came and went today with “not a lot of fanfare,” Ami L. Heesch of CHS Hedging. She noted that with the reports, farmers in North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, Michigan and Wisconsin will be resurveyed due to delayed harvest. With the reports out of the way, “the market now looks forward to January 15 Phase One signing ceremony next week.”
Today’s report raised corn yield (168 bpa) and raised acreage (81.5 mln acres) for corn, but carryout remained largely the same, John Payne of Daniels Trading said. “The bottom line is they dropped export numbers like we thought they would, and they dropped ethanol numbers somewhat, but they raised feed residual use by 250 mln. The confirmation is huge we are feeding the heck out of the corn crop.
Overall, the lower than expected estimate of Dec. 1 corn stocks offered support to the market, ADM Investor Services said. “It offset the fact they did not lower the U.S. 2019 corn crop as much as the bulls were hoping for,” they added.
U.S. carryout numbers from today’s USDA report came in at 1.892 bln bushels for corn, slightly above the average trade guess of 1.757 bln bushels. World carryout is at 297.81 mmt.
“It was a surprise they raised the bean yields and dropped the acreage,” John Payne of Daniels Trading said. Overall, there wasn’t a big change, he said, as the report “didn’t touch on Chinese intentions.
However, continued ideas of increased demand will support soybeans despite what Ami L. Heesch of CHS Hedging called a “neutral/negative” USDA report today. “Export and below trade estimates,” she added.
U.S. carryout numbers from today’s USDA report came in at 475 mln bushels for soybeans, slightly above the average trade guess of 424 mln bushels. World carryout is at 96.67 mmt.
There are bigger than expected wheat seedings today and lower grain stocks helped the market be mixed today, Ami L. Heesch of CHS Hedging said. “The wheat rallied significantly ahead of the USDA report on crop concerns in Australia, Ukraine and Russia and low winter wheat acres in the U.S.,” she said.
In the wheat crop, funds “continue to support” ADM Investor Services said this afternoon. There has been a net long Chicago wheat position overall, and they said most fundamentalist traders “are looking for a rally in Q1 2020 to sell.”
U.S. carryout numbers from today’s USDA report came in at 965 mln bushels for wheat, slightly above the average trade guess of 1.757 bln bushels. World carryout is at 288.08 mmt.