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· USDA Won’t Account for Phase 1 Deal in Friday's Reports
· Bullish USDA report expected Friday
USDA Won’t Account for Phase 1 Deal in Friday's Reports
by Tyne Morgan, AgWeb
Jan 09, 2020
USDA is set to release a slew of reports on Friday. From an updated look at 2019 crop production, to a fresh take on stocks, the reports have the potential to create big moves in the markets.
“There’s a lot of uncertainty and then add to that all the difficulties we've had from start to finish on this crop,” says Chip Nellinger of Blue Reef Agri-Marketing. “There's still a lot of crop in the field in the in the northern portions of the Corn Belt.”
The unharvested crop will be counted as on-farm storage by USDA. That’s created chatter heading into Friday, but much of the market talk leading up to the reports are about the possibility of USDA lowering the national corn yield, while also lowering corn exports.
“I think there's a definite risk of USDA lowering the export figure for corn in January, simply because we probably only had 280 million bushels of corn exports in the first quarter; last year, we were over 600 million,” says Alan Brugler of Brugler Marketing “That's a big drop off, that's not fully reflected in their table. And they can't account for Chinese business before it happens. That's not part of their methodology. So they they're going to have to lower the corn exports. The question is, what do they offset enough on the production side?”
So, what if USDA raises yields? Nellinger says that’s a possibility, and a bearish reaction is always a concern heading into big reports like this.
“That's the fear,” Nellinger says. “Personally, I would think...
more, including links, video report [4:21 min.]
Bullish USDA report expected Friday
By Mark Dorenkamp, Brownfield
January 9, 2020
Most analysts anticipate a bullish USDA crop report Friday.
Naomi Blohm is senior market adviser with Total Farm Marketing.
“Based on what producers have been telling us all along, we still think the yield numbers for corn and soybeans needs to come down a little bit.”
The USDA will release its final corn and soybean yields for 2019, and update demand projections...
more, including audio [4:26 min.]