[Tues]: … if China does need to import 3 million metric tons of pork in 2020 (many analysts think the total could be 4 million), this could mean 250,000 metric tons per month, said The Hightower Report. “If this is the case, the market will have to get used to report imports in the months ahead”… [Mon]: National carcass base down 18 cents… Iowa-Minnesota carcass base up 10 cents… USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon rose 54 cents… A major decline is expected in U.S. hog production this quarter, Stewart-Peterson said, which should help tighten supplies, “especially if China becomes a major buyer of U.S. pork.” They said without an “overly bullish” fundamental picture, “today’s stabilization appears to be mostly technical in nature”…  

 

Farm Commodity Newsletter/Iowa Farmer Today

 

Tue 1/7/2020 9:00 AM

 

Lean hogs - Chinese hog and pork prices have started to rebound sharply ahead of the coming Lunar New Year demand period, Allendale reported. This price increase could create a strong incentive to get a trade deal done sooner than later.

 

The technical action is sluggish, but the market seems to have the supply and especially the demand fundamentals to see the trend turn up, said The Hightower Report. “The market seems to have the supply and demand fundamentals to trade higher this month.”

 

Cattle market strong

 

The cattle market rallied sharply yesterday; a very strong performance continues in the cattle market, said Joe Vaclavik of Standard Grain. “It’s been a long time since we’ve seen any setback there.”

 

Also, if China does need to import 3 million metric tons of pork in 2020 (many analysts think the total could be 4 million), this could mean 250,000 metric tons per month, said The Hightower Report. “If this is the case, the market will have to get used to report imports in the months ahead.”

 

Mon 1/6/2020 4:50 PM

 

In weighted average negotiated prices for barrows and gilts, USDA reported;

 

National carcass base down 18 cents to $50.33/cwt.

National live was up 49 cents to $40.22

Iowa-Minnesota carcass base up 10 cents to $50.65

 

USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon rose 54 cents to $74.76/cwt.

 

A major decline is expected in U.S. hog production this quarter, Stewart-Peterson said, which should help tighten supplies, “especially if China becomes a major buyer of U.S. pork.” They said without an “overly bullish” fundamental picture, “today’s stabilization appears to be mostly technical in nature.”

 

“There’s still more potential in the hogs long-term,” Oliver Sloup of Blue Line Futures said after Friday’s sharp drop in future prices. That drop came on fears the Iran tensions would hurt the markets. “The chart looks pretty constructive,” he said. “We just need to see consecutive closes here above $70 and we should be in pretty good shape.”

 

Cattle rebound with big day

 

The cattle market was sharply higher today, hitting its highest points since December 16, The Hightower Report said. With strength in the cash market last week, the market has ideas that the basis is more in line with normal basis levels which helps boost speculative buying, they noted.

 

Hogs caught late buying to help support the market as traders found bargains when the early low hit $74.04, The Hightower Report said. “The market seems to have the supply and demand fundamentals to trade higher into late this month.”

 

Markets mixed to open week

 

Grains are starting to trade “with a mixed bag” Oliver Sloup of Blue Line Futures said. Much of the volatility from Iran news Friday carried over to today’s trade, he said, as there’s a possibility it could throw a wrench into a deal with China.

 

Markets are awaiting the upcoming final production numbers from Friday’s USDA report, Ami L. Heesch of CHS Hedging said.

 

Corn

 

Oliver Sloup of Blue Line Futures said he is “more optimistic” on the corn market, but Friday’s failure was a technical breakdown. He said the market has been dripping below the support level of $3.85, and closing below there might push things to around $3.77.

 

Wheat weakness hurt the corn market today as there is no new news, Ami L. Heesch of CHS Hedging said. “The Middle East situation has investors taking a bit of risk out of their portfolios,” she said.

 

Soybeans

 

Prices rose today as there is new hopes of Chinese buying of U.S. soybeans after next week, Ami L. Heesch of CHS Hedging said.

 

A rally at the midsession in the market held above Friday’s low, which made for an inside trading session, ADM Investor Services said. “Meal was also able to benefit from carryover strength in soybean, and overcome news that Argentina will suspend their export tax increase.”

 

Wheat

 

Wheat prices dealt with profit-taking and technical selling today, Ami L. Heesch said. “There was a fair amount of wheat sold by the farmer last week as they were taking care of year-end business needs,” she said.

 

“Kansas City wheat was able to hold its ground in positive territory as it finished with a modest gain, while Minneapolis wheat fell back in the final half-hour to close with a modest loss,” ADM Investor Services said. “There were forecasts for heavy snow over Chinese and Mongolian wheat-growing regions that provided the market with early support.”

 

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