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· China's pork prices rebound as consumption picks up in cold weather
… Prices have been volatile but analysts say they could now be starting on an uptrend again as consumption will rise during winter through to the Lunar New Year holiday in late January, when meat consumption traditionally peaks… On Monday, wholesale pork prices rose 1.1% from Friday, reaching 42.53 yuan per kilo, according to data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs. "The pig supply gap is still quite big," said Shu Anli, analyst at China-America Commodity Data Analytics…
· The Sizzling Rally in Chinese Pork Prices Cools as Imports Rise
· China’s pork crisis may be easing but price rises are still in the cards
· China says 2019 pork imports to exceed 3 million tonnes
China's pork prices rebound as consumption picks up in cold weather
By Hallie Gu and Dominique Patton, Reuters
via Nasdaq - Dec 2, 2019
BEIJING, Dec 2 (Reuters) - China's pork prices rose on Monday, the first meaningful rebound in more than a month, as consumption increased with colder weather while supplies remained short in the world's top consumer of the meat.
Prices have been volatile but analysts say they could now be starting on an uptrend again as consumption will rise during winter through to the Lunar New Year holiday in late January, when meat consumption traditionally peaks.
Chinese pork prices jumped in October to almost three times the prior year's level after millions of pigs died from African swine fever over the past year and the country's huge hog herd shrank by more than 40%.
But after topping 52 yuan ($7.39) per kilogramme, prices unexpectedly plunged 20% last month as consumers cut back on the pricy meat and more supplies of frozen pork were released to the market.
On Monday, wholesale pork prices rose 1.1% from Friday, reaching 42.53 yuan per kilo, according to data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs.
"The pig supply gap is still quite big," said Shu Anli, analyst at China-America Commodity Data Analytics. "Consumption also rose as the temperature fell," she said.
After high pork prices pushed China's consumer price index (CPI) up 3.8% in October, the most in almost eight years, Beijing stepped in to keep prices in check, launching inspections of cold storage facilities and releasing pork from state reserves, according to analysts.
"The government said on November 4 that it will carry out inspections on slaughterhouses nationwide and will destroy any meat with African swine fever virus, then the cold storage facilities panic-sold their meat, which triggered the price fall," said Meng Jinhui, analyst with Shengda Futures.
Six provinces in southern China including major pork consumption regions Guangdong and Guangxi also decided in early November to ban the import of live hogs from other provinces from Nov. 30 to help curb the spread of disease.
Many farmers, worried about a future decline in demand, rushed to send their pigs to slaughterhouses before the policy took effect, cooling prices. Some farmers also panicked on reports of new outbreaks of African swine fever that pushed them to sell their hogs. That increased supply but only temporarily as the market is still squeezed after so many pigs died over the last year.
"Supplies are already tight, now the number of pigs ready for slaughter is even smaller," said Yao Guiling, agriculture analyst at China Securities Futures.
Pork prices are expected to rise further as consumption continues to pick up through to the Lunar New Year holiday…
The Sizzling Rally in Chinese Pork Prices Cools as Imports Rise
James Poole, Bloomberg
via Yahoo Finance - November 27, 2019
(Bloomberg) -- China’s scorching rally in pork prices, which pushed the country’s inflation to the highest level in seven years, is cooling.
The market has slumped about 16% this month from a record. Surging meat imports, higher production of poultry and eggs, and the prospect of more frequent inventory sales have helped to curb the advance.
Overseas pork purchases jumped almost 50% in the first 10 months of the year, while inbound beef shipments surged 55%.
China also plans to reinvigorate its own hog production...
more, including chart
China’s pork crisis may be easing but price rises are still in the cards
via KTVZ (OR) - November 28, 2019
China says the worst of its pork crisis might be over, but some analysts say it’s still too soon to give the all-clear.
The number of breeding pigs in China picked up slightly in October compared to the month before, according to data released by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs last week. It was the first increase since April 2018, a few months before African swine fever began ravaging farms across the country.
The illness not only killed pigs, but also made farmers reluctant to restock pigs after they were slaughtered out of fear they would catch the disease. That caused the total pig population to shrink by around 130 million, or more than 40%, as of September, according to a CNN Business analysis of official data.
The latest data on breeding pigs indicates that the problem has “basically reached a bottom,” the agricultural ministry said during a press conference last week. That’s because it shows that farmers are now more willing to raise pigs.
Yang Zhenhai, the ministry’s director for livestock and veterinarians, said the total pig population could stop declining by the end of this year. The ministry’s own targets are aggressive, too: It expects China’s pig herd to recover to 80% of pre-crisis levels by the end of 2020.
That would be particularly good news for consumers, who have had to absorb massive pork price increases caused by the meat shortage. Pork is a staple of the country’s diet, making the problem a major pain point.
While prices are still high — more than double what they were at this time last year — the cost of pork is now dropping, according to data released Tuesday by the Ministry of Commerce. Pork prices fell nearly 9% last week, the third straight week of declines.
But analysts warn that the crisis might not be bottoming out just yet. China’s most important holiday season, Chinese New Year, is still a couple of months away. Rising pork prices are “inevitable” before then, said Xie Zhiyou, an agricultural industry analyst for China Galaxy Securities.
“A peak season for pork consumption is coming,” he said, adding that he expects prices to continue increasing until at least the middle of next year.
The government has tried to curb the soaring prices by increasing imports. China expects to import more than three million tons of pork this year, a spokesman for the Ministry of Commerce said Thursday. That’s 40% more than last year.
Xie also said he found it “impossible” for China’s pig herd to rebound significantly until a vaccine for African swine fever hits the market.
China says 2019 pork imports to exceed 3 million tonnes
Reporting by Stella Qiu and Dominique Patton; Editing by Shri Navaratnam, Reuters
November 28, 2019
BEIJING (Reuters) - China’s commerce ministry expects imports of pork and pork byproducts to exceed 3 million tonnes this year, said an official on Thursday, while total meat imports will be more than 6 million tonnes.
The estimate is in line with a forecast by Rabobank, which is predicting imports of 3.1 million and 3.3 million tonnes this year, exceeding the record reached in 2016.
China’s meat imports are surging...