In this file:

 

·         Sheer numbers of the Chinese hog herd, pre- and post-ASF, are unfathomable.

Relativity in the numbers

 

·         Global ASF crisis deepens

The hard-to-kill virus has threatened 75 percent of the world’s hogs in Europe and Asia, said Brett Stuart of Global AgriTrends, who provides market advice to the Canadian and U.S. livestock industries and makes frequent trips to China to gather market intelligence

 

 

Relativity in the numbers

Sheer numbers of the Chinese hog herd, pre- and post-ASF, are unfathomable.

 

Kevin Schulz, National Hog Farmer 

Nov 27, 2019

 

I've never been able to get my head around really large numbers, such as when talking of what top professional athletes and celebrities make for playing games or singing songs.

 

I do not begrudge Lionel Messi for making $127 million playing soccer, or Taylor Swift for making $185 million for using her vocal chords to entertain endearing crowds. They are both taking full advantage of the talents that God has given them to make a very comfortable living for themselves, and their children, and their grandchildren and their great-grandchildren, and their …. Well, you get the point.

 

Don't get me wrong, I am not jealous (OK, maybe a little), because my wife and I make a decent living, but our children will have to fend for themselves (sorry kids). I just cannot fathom that amount of money that today's celebrities bring in.

 

Same goes for when we discuss any numbers surrounding China. I remember decades ago in my previous news gathering life, the United States was trying to increase exports, and China was seen as a growth market, much as it is today. Back then there was talk of the hopes of increasing ag exports to reach a minuscule percentage of the Chinese populace. A minuscule percentage increase of 1.25 billion consumers would be real nice padding to the U.S. wallet.

 

Now, for the last year or so we have watched from afar as the Chinese hog herd is being decimated by African swine fever. The sheer numbers of the Chinese herd are daunting. Estimates are that 40 to 55% of the Chinese hog herd has either been culled or died from ASF. Those numbers are large percentages, but that becomes even larger when you align numbers of animals to those percentages.

 

Just throwing out general numbers: the Chinese had 400 million hogs, then ASF took 40 to 55%. According to the USDA, as of Sept. 1, there were 77.7 million hogs and pigs on U.S. farms. ASF has diminished the Chinese swine herd by the entire U.S. hog herd and then some.

 

I can't even fathom those kinds of numbers. The Chinese hog herd versus the U.S. swine herd is like the Swift household compared to the Schulz household. I've never hung out with Taylor Swift, and I imagine she feels that she has a pretty nice lifestyle, but I'm happy with mine.

 

Same goes for the Chinese swine herd...

 

more

https://www.nationalhogfarmer.com/business/relativity-numbers

 

 

Global ASF crisis deepens

The hard-to-kill virus has threatened 75 percent of the world’s hogs in Europe and Asia, said Brett Stuart of Global AgriTrends, who provides market advice to the Canadian and U.S. livestock industries and makes frequent trips to China to gather market intelligence

 

By Barbara Duckworth, The Western Producer (Canada) 

November 28, 2019

 

The spread of African swine fever continues to grow with some analysts suspecting China is downplaying the crisis and about half the sow herd there has been lost.

 

“We still to this day do not know how bad it really is,” said Brett Stuart of Global AgriTrends, who provides market advice to the Canadian and U.S. livestock industries and makes frequent trips to China to gather market intelligence.

 

The hard-to-kill virus has threatened 75 percent of the world’s hogs in Europe and Asia, he told the Alberta Pork annual meeting held in Calgary Nov. 21.

 

It has spread throughout China, Vietnam, the Philippines and South Korea. Cases have been found in Belgium and Poland.

 

Germany is under considerable threat. It has about 17 percent of the Chinese pork market and 20 percent goes to South Korea but if one case is found, that business would be lost. The latest case found in Poland was 80 kilometres from the German border.

 

Wild boar carry the disease and are a growing pest throughout Europe because they roam through fields and come in contact with domestic pigs, said Manfred Kern, managing director of Agriexcellence in Germany.

 

“If we have that we are out of the business in the global scenario. If we are blocked out who can close the gap?” he said at the pork meeting.

 

Fearing the threat, Denmark is building a 70-kilometre-long fence along its border with Germany to protect its pork business.

 

The losses in China are starting to affect global markets, said Stuart.

 

About 220 million hogs and 22 million sows have died and the result is high profits for the survivors and food inflation in China.

 

Hog profits are above $300 per head.

 

The Chinese eat about 80 kg of pork per capita but the markets are empty. The government released 30,000 tonnes of frozen pork from storage earlier this fall. They have probably released more but that was not nearly enough to fill store shelves.

 

Consequently, the Chinese consumer faces a 150 percent annual inflation on pork. Beef prices are up 23 percent and poultry is up 33 percent since January. Prices could go even higher for Chinese New Year.

 

A state owned enterprise is managing to book imported pork into the future. Prices are being held at a reasonable level but the Chinese are outbidding other prominent buyers competing for a limited supply of about eight million tonnes valued at $21.3 billion.

 

“They can now outbid Japan for pork and that should be terrifying for the Japanese,” Stuart said.

 

“China now has the ability to outbid everyone. They are a pork magnet,” he said.

 

Market intelligence suggests the Chinese are attempting to rebuild but it could take years to find enough breeding stock and construct new, biosecure barns.

 

“The world is not set up to replace that much breeding stock. It will take years,” he said.

 

They may rebuild 70 percent of their infrastructure in 10 years but that would mean they still need to import about 30 percent of their pork or 16 million tonnes.

 

China has approved Brazil, Ireland, the United Kingdom and Slovenia for export but the gap is too big to fill.

 

The United States, Canada and Brazil would have to double production but that is also unlikely.

 

“We cannot get the permits for six million sows in the U.S.,” he said.

 

Brazil is well suited to expand because it has good interest rates, access to China, building permits and labour. Canada and the U.S. have the potential to expand but they want to see the money first.

 

Further, there is an over supply of pork in the U.S. and prices are poor. Packing plants struggle to take what is offered and hope to export the surplus.

 

“The only way China is affecting us is pulling that demand up. The reality is we are way too heavy on hogs,” he said...

 

more

https://www.producer.com/2019/11/global-asf-crisis-deepens/