[Mon]: China’s hog population plunged more 40 percent in October… [Fri]: Daily cash prices were not available from the USDA as of 2 p.m. Lean hogs saw early selling to hit early September lows, The Hightower Report said. However, buyers helped pull the contract off their lows as selling “dried up” during the day. Chinese demand is continuing to grow, Stewart-Peterson said… The lean hog short term cash news remains bearish, but "supply is peaking, exports should improve soon and traders remain optimistic on demand," The Hightower Report said…
Farm Commodity Newsletter/Iowa Farmer Today
Mon 12/2/2019 9:15 AM
Lean Hogs - China’s hog population plunged more 40 percent in October, compared to the year earlier due to African Swine fever, according to The Hightower Report. But there are signs that the pace of the decline is slowing.
Chinese Vice Premier Hu Chunhua said the country must resolutely work to achieve the target of recovering pig production numbers, and stabilize pork supply for the upcoming holidays, the official Xinhua News Agency reported.
Livestock markets heats up after holiday
China's Securities Times newspaper reported that Fang Xinghai, vice chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), said China will launch a new pig futures contract as soon as possible given the importance of pork to the Chinese diet. The report did not give a target date for launching the futures.
Brugler Marketing said live cattle futures fell on Friday by 22 to 50 cents, but still managed to gain 2.13% on the week. Feeder cattle futures followed Thanksgiving’s break with losses in the nearby contracts, futures finished $0.65 to $1.50 on the day, but had a $3.00 gain over the week.
Fri 11/29/2019 2:31 PM
Daily cash prices were not available from the USDA as of 2 p.m.
Lean hogs saw early selling to hit early September lows, The Hightower Report said. However, buyers helped pull the contract off their lows as selling “dried up” during the day.
Chinese demand is continuing to grow, Stewart-Peterson said, but some short covering came into the market today after a small rally to end the week. “The contract has been pushing into oversold levels and may be poised for a bit of a corrective bounce as speculative fund positioning is moving to a near or possibly short position on this week’s Commitment of Traders report,” they said.
Cattle hits contract high
The cattle markets hit a contract high today, but selling after that point may be a technical sign “that a major technical top is in place,” The Hightower Report said.
Slaughter this week was limited by the shortened holiday week, but was sharply down from last year’s market. Cattle posted estimated marks of 556,000 head, down from 641,000 head last week. Lean hogs had an estimated 2.343 mln head slaughtered with 2.530 mln head this time last year.
Markets slow on Black Friday
Farm machinery makers John Deere are working on private financing in Brazil after slumping sales have put the public financing the company is receiving in danger of running out next year, Reuters reported
Price action today was affected by low-volume trade as a shortened trade day after Thanksgiving.
Corn moved higher today on some seasonal action as ADM Investor Services said cash sales may slow. “Futures may be oversold as managed funds added to weakness linked to slow US export demand,” he said.
“With ethanol production continuing to ramp up, the argument may be perceiving that corn demand may be improving,” Stewart-Peterson said. “With this morning’s push, prices are showing some technical improvement, which could bring some short-covering and an oversold market.”
Joe Lardy of CHS Hedging said that while South America had some dry spots, “in general, it’s a non-event.” He did notice that Argentina’s forecast is turning drier however.
Sentiment remains negative as traders look at U.S./China trade issues. If prices today were able to make it off the lows posted this morning, Stewart-Peterson said it could be a key in changing the direction.
Chicago wheat was the stellar performer for the week gaining 23.25 cents,” Joe Lardy of CHS Hedging said. “Thin trade coupled with month end allowed the market to trip stops and make a strong technical push higher.”
Wheat benefited today for from some low holiday trade with “limited interest in selling,” ADM Investor Services said. “Some link the buying to talk of lower Russia supplies, lower South Hemisphere supplies, some concern about EU plantings and following corn in a historical rally in December,” they said.
Fri 11/29/2019 9:13 AM
"China's commerce ministry expects imports of pork and pork byproducts to exceed 3 million tonnes this year, said an official on Thursday, while total meat imports will be more than 6 million tonnes," Allendale said.
Despite peaking U.S. supply, the possibility of added demand through trade may hold off from a typical depression in the market. "However, there remains significant uncertainty on when phase one will be complete and tariffs will come down on U.S. pork to China," The Hightower Report said.
Cattle prices appear vulnerable
Declining beef prices, higher weights and placements being higher make the cattle market possibly vulnerable to long liquidation selling ahead, The Hightower Report said. "However funds are still buying and there is no technical sign of a peak."
The lean hog short term cash news remains bearish, but "supply is peaking, exports should improve soon and traders remain optimistic on demand," The Hightower Report said.