African swine fever will influence 2020 global protein markets
Rabobank expects beef demand is set for another year of trend growth in North America.
via BEEF Magazine - Nov 25, 2019
African swine fever (ASF) appears to be the dominating issue in animal production—again in 2020. That was the major news behind the 2020 RaboBank Global Animal Protein Outlook.
Justin Sherrard, global strategist, animal protein at RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness, summarizes what 2020 will bring: “Besides the impact of ASF, many trade disputes and issues are causing uncertainty for global animal protein, with the US-China trade war the most apparent – but not the only – trade uncertainty. In addition, the ongoing rise of alternative proteins also adds to the uncertainty – even though Rabobank has a less bullish view of alternatives than others do.”
The report also covers sustainability developments, which are slightly less prominent than the above issues. However, says Sherrard: “In our view, sustainability is just as important as other areas of uncertainty, as it will shape the growth of animal protein production and consumption through the 2020s.”
Despite the uncertainties, there are also opportunities. “The most obvious area of opportunity in global animal protein is the recovery from ASF, which, in Rabobank’s view, will extend through the 2020s. Winning on sustainability is another opportunity, which can be achieved by harnessing the supply chain and moving ahead of market signals. Finally, investing to secure ongoing trade flows can also be an opportunity, as this can reduce some of the uncertainty and secure continuous market access,” concludes Sherrard.
Rabobank expects production for all species to rise in 2020 – led by pork, followed by poultry, and finally beef. While domestic consumption will grow, exports will need to pick up to manage this production growth.
The Rabobank report shows it expects beef demand is set for another year of trend growth. Although, after four years of consistent growth, North American beef production will ease in 2020. Beef exports should continue growing.
The North American pork and poultry industries continue to grow, while beef production is reaching a peak. Domestic demand remains good but cannot sufficiently absorb the quantity of new product coming to market. Excess production will continue to weigh on North American prices, particularly in pork and chicken.
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