[Tues]: With improving outlook for exports in the next six months and very strong pork values for this time of year, the market looks set for a solid rally ahead as supply slowly declines from the peak, which is normally late November to early December, The Hightower Report said… [Mon]: National carcass base down 3 cents… Iowa-Minnesota carcass base down 34 cents… USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon rose 94 cents… The market is “continuing to struggle” with the fact that tariffs on U.S. pork going to China are still high, The Hightower report said. “A record large weekly slaughter last week added to the negative tone,” they said…  According to Goldman Sachs, global pork production is expected to fall 16% in 2020 due to African swine fever and other factors, Stewart-Peterson said. “If the U.S. and China can work out a Phase 1 deal, the U.S. should export more pork and prices should rally,” Stewart-Peterson said…   

 

Farm Commodity Newsletter/Iowa Farmer Today

 

Tue 11/26/2019 8:54 AM

 

Lean hogs - With improving outlook for exports in the next six months and very strong pork values for this time of year, the market looks set for a solid rally ahead as supply slowly declines from the peak, which is normally late November to early December, The Hightower Report said.

 

The USDA published a revision to their FAS terminology, essentially clarifying the specifics of what muscle cuts are, and that the category does includes carcasses, Brugler Marketing said. USDA estimates FI hog slaughter for Monday to be 491,000 head.

 

USDA shedding light on hog sales

 

USDA said commodity exporters must disclose sales of hog carcasses, giving officials and traders more insight into a surge of Chinese pork buying, according to Allendale. "These changes will help to provide transparency and eliminate confusion for the industry," said meat packer Tyson Foods Inc.

 

The cattle market was up yesterday following a Cattle on Feed report that was considered to be slightly friendly, Joe Vaclavik of Standard Grain said.

 

Mon 11/25/2019 4:37 PM

 

In weighted average negotiated prices for barrows and gilts, USDA reported;

 

National carcass base down 3 cents to $41.78/cwt.

National live was down 3 cents to at $34.61

Iowa-Minnesota carcass base down 34 cents to $41.37

 

USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon rose 94 cents at $84.01/cwt.

 

“The best traded February contract made an inside session today and only managed slightly higher closes,” Stewart-Peterson said. “April futures saw similar price action, though April did break below Friday’s lows. Both contracts are oversold technically and could find some speculative buyer interest, especially if the market can get word of more solid export sales.”

 

The market is “continuing to struggle” with the fact that tariffs on U.S. pork going to China are still high, The Hightower report said. “A record large weekly slaughter last week added to the negative tone,” they said.

 

Cattle higher after better-than-expected report

 

While Friday’s high placements mark in the Cattle-on-Feed report is “bearish on face value,” Stewart-Petersons aid that it came in below estimates which eases sentiment. That helped lead to a day of triple-digit gains in the cattle markets.

 

According to Goldman Sachs, global pork production is expected to fall 16% in 2020 due to African swine fever and other factors, Stewart-Peterson said. “If the U.S. and China can work out a Phase 1 deal, the U.S. should export more pork and prices should rally,” Stewart-Peterson said.

 

Wheat jumps, but other grains don't follow

 

Despite strength from wheat today, the row crops struggled to open a short week, Ami L. Heesch of CHS Hedging said. Conditions are expected to be less favorable across the U.S. this week, and Heesch expects more choppy trade “as folks get their positions aligned ahead of the Thanksgiving Holiday.”

 

In today’s crop progress report, corn harvested in the U.S. was marked at 84% complete, an increase of eight points from last week, but is still lagging behind the five-year average of 96%. Soybeans are back near average with a 94% harvested mark, only three points behind the five-year average.

 

Today was originally scheduled to be the final crop progress report of the year, but with the excessive delays this year, USDA will be continuing them for the time being.

 

Corn

 

Despite the initial boost in conjunction with wheat, corn failed to hold on to its higher levels on the day, Ami L. Heesch of CHS Hedging said. Hopes for additional export demand is bringing some optimism to the U.S. as Brazil has seen “robust” sales for the past few weeks, she said.

 

Corn is also finding a little support from large managed funds “rolling out” of the December contract before first-notice day, ADM Investor Services said, in addition to a strong U.S. cash basis.

 

Soybeans

 

No trade deal continues to be the thorn in the side of the soybean market, Ami L. Heesch of CHS Hedging said. “Favorable weather conditions in SA this week provided additional pressure on the soybean market.”

 

“With South American forecasts being relatively favorable, it’s difficult for the bean market to gain traction and potentially dealing with another South American supply,” Stewart-Peterson said. “The soybean market was also being supported by a more improved tone between U.S./Chinese trade negotiations that a limited agreement could be reached in the near term, but with the on-again-off-again mentality of the newswire, the market is going to truly be in a show-me-first mentality.”

 

Wheat

 

With snow expected across the U.S. and other adverse conditions around the world, wheat saw some sizable gains today, Ami L. Heesch of CHS Hedging said. She said wheat prices are also stronger overall in the world, which is supportive to the market.

 

A possible tight Chicago and Kansas City delivery situation gave support to the wheat market today, ADM Investor Services said.

 

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