[Mon]: China’s pig herd fell 0.6% in October (3% drop last month). This is the smallest month-on-month contraction in a year, Allendale reported. They did not disclose the year-on-year decline in October, but in September it had dropped 41% on the year. China's stock of breeding sows rose 0.6% in October, the first monthly increase since April 2018, official figures showed, signaling China’s pig production may soon start to recover… [Fri]: National carcass base down 66 cents… Iowa-Minnesota carcass base down 62 cents… USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon rose $1.60… "Very aggressive import purchases" from China this week have helped support the market, The Hightower Report said, despite concerns about the lack of a trade deal with the Asian nation… "Record high China hog prices has raised talk producers will increase hog numbers," ADM Investor Services said. "This week prices eased after China sold pork from their reserves"… 

 

Farm Commodity Newsletter/Iowa Farmer Today

 

Mon 11/25/2019 9:23 AM

 

Lean hogs - China’s pig herd fell 0.6% in October (3% drop last month). This is the smallest month-on-month contraction in a year, Allendale reported. They did not disclose the year-on-year decline in October, but in September it had dropped 41% on the year. China's stock of breeding sows rose 0.6% in October, the first monthly increase since April 2018, official figures showed, signaling China’s pig production may soon start to recover.

 

The USDA Cold Storage data was released on Friday afternoon and showed frozen pork stocks at an all-time October record of 614.508 million lbs. That was a 7.64% increase over last year, and 35.17% above the 10-year average for the month, Brugler Marketing reported.

 

Livestock markets in flux

 

The market seems to have the bearish fundamental news to see at least a major corrective break just ahead or possibly the start of a downtrend, according to The Hightower Report.

 

Cattle owners will look for increased competition this week from the Tyson Kansas plant. While the packers will be slaughtering for a holiday-shortened week, packer margins will stimulate interest in acquiring sufficient inventory for a full week next week. Cattle will be priced on par with December futures, according to The Cattle Report.

 

Fri 11/22/2019 4:44 PM

 

In weighted average negotiated prices for barrows and gilts, USDA reported;

 

National carcass base down 66 cents to $41.91/cwt.

National live was up 11 cents, to $35.46

Iowa-Minnesota carcass base down 62 cents to $41.80

 

USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon rose $1.60 to $83.07/cwt.

 

"Very aggressive import purchases" from China this week have helped support the market, The Hightower Report said, despite concerns about the lack of a trade deal with the Asian nation. "Cumulative sales for the year are really picking up steam," they said.

 

"Record high China hog prices has raised talk producers will increase hog numbers," ADM Investor Services said. "This week prices eased after China sold pork from their reserves."

 

Cattle-on-Feed releases within expectations

 

Today's Cattle-on-Feed report was "Neutral-Friendly," according to Mike Zuzolo of Global Commodity Analytics.

 

Cattle on feed for November 1 came in at 101%, right around estimates for the report. Placements came in at a 11.4% increase, just below the average trade guess and marketings were around 1% lower, also within expectations.

 

Zuzolo said the on-feed number was low enough that the price level should hold, "especially given that November feeders expired around the $145.50 area."

 

Trade headlines positive to end week

 

The USDA said Monday's crop progress report will not be the final report of the year, as harvest delays are continuing to push back schedules, Michaela White of CHS Hedging said.

 

In today's trade headline, Reuters is reporting there are "positive signals" from both U.S. President Trump and Chinese President Xi on a deal to defuse the ongoing trade war.

 

Corn

 

Option expiration was the biggest focus of the day, according to Michaela White of CHS Hedging. "Harvest is estimated to be between 85% and 95% complete" when Monday's report comes out, she said, as corn continues to trade in narrow ranges.

 

"While overall news in the marketplace stayed relatively quiet today, the biggest movement in determining trade may have been Dec options expiring on Friday afternoon," Stewart-Peterson said. "The markets have a tendency to gravitate towards areas of large open interest."

 

Soybeans

 

"Talk of favorable South America weather and uncertainty over U.S. and China trade talks may have weighed on soybean prices," ADM Investor Services said. The noted that countries other than China are looking at U.S. for demand.

 

"Long liquidation has stayed the main factor in the soybean market as prices have continued to break through technical support levels," Stewart-Peterson said. They noted that funds in long positions are liquidating, and right now South American weather has given a "general negative sentiment" for the soybean market.

 

Wheat

 

Chicago wheat brought out the "rally pants" today, according to Michaela White of CHS Hedging. That put December Chicago wheat contract up 12 1/2 cents for the week. Chicago wheat is at a net short of nearly 26,000 contracts today.

 

Cash winter wheat movement is slow this time of year, ADM Investor Services said, but global export trade tends to pick up. "Russia and Ukraine could see needed rains over the dry parts of their winter wheat crop areas," they noted. Hard red wheat export prices in the U.S. sit around $227, they noted with parts of Europe at $204 and Russia at $208.

 

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