[Mon]: Cattle owners will look for increased competition this week from the Tyson Kansas plant. While the packers will be slaughtering for a holiday-shortened week, packer margins will stimulate interest in acquiring sufficient inventory for a full week next week. Cattle will be priced on par with December futures, according to The Cattle Report… [Fri]: Boxed beef cutout values this afternoon were sharply lower… Choice fell $2.29… Select went down $2.54… In negotiated cash sales in Nebraska, the USDA reported 40 head sold dressed at $184, with 967 sold live at $115-117. In Iowa/Minnesota, 3,499 head were sold live at $112-119, and 662 head were sold dressed at $182-185… Today's Cattle-on-Feed report was "Neutral-Friendly," according to Mike Zuzolo of Global Commodity Analytics…
Farm Commodity Newsletter/Iowa Farmer Today
Mon 11/25/2019 9:23 AM
Cattle - The Cattle on Feed report showed on feed as of Oct. 1 at 101.2% of last year (101.2% average estimate), placements at 110.2% (111.4% average estimate), and marketings at 99.4% (99.7% average estimate), Allendale said.
February cattle gaped lower on the opening Friday and closed lower on the session, according to The Hightower Report. Talk of increasing weights which could add to the short-term tonnage plus the overbought condition of the market has helped to trigger some long liquidation selling.
Livestock markets in flux
The market seems to have the bearish fundamental news to see at least a major corrective break just ahead or possibly the start of a downtrend, according to The Hightower Report.
Cattle owners will look for increased competition this week from the Tyson Kansas plant. While the packers will be slaughtering for a holiday-shortened week, packer margins will stimulate interest in acquiring sufficient inventory for a full week next week. Cattle will be priced on par with December futures, according to The Cattle Report.
Fri 11/22/2019 4:44 PM
Boxed beef cutout values this afternoon were sharply lower on light demand and moderate offerings, USDA said.
Choice fell $2.29 to $232.57/cwt.
Select went down $2.54 to $211.32.
In negotiated cash sales in Nebraska, the USDA reported 40 head sold dressed at $184, with 967 sold live at $115-117. In Iowa/Minnesota, 3,499 head were sold live at $112-119, and 662 head were sold dressed at $182-185.
With Cattle on Feed releasing after the close of trading today, the futures "rolled over" as funds squared up their positions, Blue Line Futures said. "Cash is steady this week and remains at a decent discount to the deferred contracts," they said. "We have also posted a double top and are nearing a short term bearish seasonal pattern."
The action in cattle was lower today as weights continue to increase, adding to the short-term tonnage, The Hightower Report said. "Plus, the overbought conditions of the market has helped to trigger some long liquidation selling," combined with a weaker beef market in recent days has helped pressure the market.
Cattle-on-Feed releases within expectations
Today's Cattle-on-Feed report was "Neutral-Friendly," according to Mike Zuzolo of Global Commodity Analytics.
Cattle on feed for November 1 came in at 101%, right around estimates for the report. Placements came in at a 11.4% increase, just below the average trade guess and marketings were around 1% lower, also within expectations.
Zuzolo said the on-feed number was low enough that the price level should hold, "especially given that November feeders expired around the $145.50 area."
Trade headlines positive to end week
The USDA said Monday's crop progress report will not be the final report of the year, as harvest delays are continuing to push back schedules, Michaela White of CHS Hedging said.
In today's trade headline, Reuters is reporting there are "positive signals" from both U.S. President Trump and Chinese President Xi on a deal to defuse the ongoing trade war.
Option expiration was the biggest focus of the day, according to Michaela White of CHS Hedging. "Harvest is estimated to be between 85% and 95% complete" when Monday's report comes out, she said, as corn continues to trade in narrow ranges.
"While overall news in the marketplace stayed relatively quiet today, the biggest movement in determining trade may have been Dec options expiring on Friday afternoon," Stewart-Peterson said. "The markets have a tendency to gravitate towards areas of large open interest."
"Talk of favorable South America weather and uncertainty over U.S. and China trade talks may have weighed on soybean prices," ADM Investor Services said. The noted that countries other than China are looking at U.S. for demand.
"Long liquidation has stayed the main factor in the soybean market as prices have continued to break through technical support levels," Stewart-Peterson said. They noted that funds in long positions are liquidating, and right now South American weather has given a "general negative sentiment" for the soybean market.
Chicago wheat brought out the "rally pants" today, according to Michaela White of CHS Hedging. That put December Chicago wheat contract up 12 1/2 cents for the week. Chicago wheat is at a net short of nearly 26,000 contracts today.
Cash winter wheat movement is slow this time of year, ADM Investor Services said, but global export trade tends to pick up. "Russia and Ukraine could see needed rains over the dry parts of their winter wheat crop areas," they noted. Hard red wheat export prices in the U.S. sit around $227, they noted with parts of Europe at $204 and Russia at $208.