In this file:
· China’s pigs to take half a decade to recover from killer virus
· China reshapes global meat markets as swine fever rages
· China’s pig herd will not recover until 2025 – Rabobank
China’s pigs to take half a decade to recover from killer virus
Agnieszka de Sousa, Bloomberg
via The Detroit News - Nov. 8, 2019
China’s pig herd will take more than half a decade to recover from a deadly virus, and even then the nation’s meat consumption won’t be the same as before, according to Rabobank International.
The world’s biggest pork market won’t stabilize from the damage inflicted by African swine fever until 2025 and meat imports can’t make up the shortfall, the bank said. China’s hog herd has more than halved to less than 200 million since the first case was reported in August last year, the bank said.
“It isn’t fully appreciated that the market will take years probably half a decade to rebalance,” Chenjun Pan, an analyst at Rabobank, said in a statement on Friday. “Even when the market does rebalance, it’s going to be a different meat environment in China.”
China is desperately trying to increase production and import more pork and other meats like beef and chicken to satisfy domestic demand. Local retail prices have surged, indicating that shortages are starting to bite. Rabobank expects the virus to kill a quarter of the word’s pig population, and the bank sees the recovery taking longer than Chinese officials have signaled.
During a recent visit to major livestock provinces of Shandong, Hebei and Henan, Chinese Vice Premier Hu Chunhua urged local governments to resume pig production as soon possible, with a target of returning to normal levels next year.
The crisis will have long-lasting effects on China’s meat industry, according to Rabobank. When the market recovers, pork will remain the country’s protein of choice, but its share of meat consumption will fall to 53% from a recent 63%, it said. Poultry’s share of demand is forecast to increase to 30% by 2025.
“For China, and the global market, this will be the new normal,” Pan said. The Chinese will consume more chilled, frozen and processed meat rather than the preferred fresh warm pork, she said...
China reshapes global meat markets as swine fever rages
By Nigel Hunt, Reuters
via WKZO - November 08, 2019
LONDON/BEIJING (Reuters) - China is scouring the world for meat to replace the millions of pigs killed by African swine fever (ASF), boosting prices, business and profits for European and South American meatpackers as it re-shapes global markets for pork, beef and chicken.
The European Union, the world's second largest pork producer after China, has ramped up sales to the Asian giant although it can only fill part of the shortfall caused by ASF. Argentina and Brazil have approved new export plants to meet demand and are selling beef and chickens, as well as pork, to fill the gap. U.S. producers, however, have been hampered due to tariffs imposed by Beijing.
Other Asian countries are also ready to step up imports as they, too, deal with outbreaks of ASF. Vietnam, the Philippines, North and South Korea, Laos, Myanmar and Cambodia are all struggling to contain outbreaks of the disease, which is deadly to pigs although not harmful to humans.
"It is very good news for those involved in processing and have licenses for exports to China," said Justin Sherrard, global strategist, animal protein at Rabobank.
Major EU pork processors include Danish Crown, Tonnies Group and Vion Food Group although the market is fragmented with many small- and medium-size players.
Shortages in the world's top pork consumer have been exacerbated by the upcoming Lunar New Year celebrations in late January, when pork, and pork dumplings in particular, play a central role in the food on offer.
One of the biggest European players Danish Crown said there had been a very clear jump in demand from China in the run-up to the Lunar New Year and it was bullish on the outlook for 2020.
China's state-owned agriculture conglomerate COFCO said this week it had agreed to buy $100 million of pork from Danish Crown in 2020 to help ease the domestic shortage.
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China’s pig herd will not recover until 2025 – Rabobank
By Alistair Driver, Pig World (UK)
November 8, 2019
China’s pig herd will take ‘over five years’ to recover from the damage wreaked by African swine fever (ASF), according to Rabobank.
However, when the herd does recover it is likely to be a very different market, with pork shortages and higher prices forcing a significant and permanent shift away from pork consumption in China.
When China’ first case of ASF was reported in August 2018, its pig herd stood at over 430m, accounting for half the world’s pigs. Such has been the scale of the devastation that the herd now stands at under 200m pigs.
Chinese Government and industry officials have spoken optimistically recently about a recovery in the pig herd, driven by growth in large pig herds. Yang Zhenhai, from China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, predicted the herd would ‘bottom out’ this year and could return to normal levels in 2020.
But Rabobank analysts are forecasting a much longer road to recovery, given the scale of the devastation so far. Rabobank has predicted that ASF will kill a quarter of the word’s pig population.
The focus next year and in 2021 will be on small-scale restocking and large-scale importing before hog production increases in the years to 2025, when the market should rebalance and prices stabilise, they predict. However, even then the total herd is unlikely to return to the 2018 peak, analysts predict.
The report, China’s Recovery from African Swine Fever, Rebuilding, Relocating and Restructuring, says China will be unable to import enough pork to make up for the production shortfall in the coming years, causing high global prices.
The change in the market will also prompt consumers to change habits. Rabobank predicts China’s population will consume more chilled, frozen and processed meat – rather than the preferred fresh warm pork – while poultry consumption will rise to make up some 30% of the market by 2025.
As a result of ASF, China’s pork market will be changed forever, with pork’s share of the market declining from the recent 63% to 53%, the bank’s analysts forecast.
Chenjun Pan, animal protein senior analyst at Rabobank, said: “Everybody recognises that China’s pig population has been decimated but it isn’t fully appreciated that the market will take years – probably half a decade – to rebalance due to the huge restocking required and the fact that global imports simply cannot make up the shortfall.
“The recovery will likely start taking shape...