In this file:


·         China reshapes global meat markets as swine fever rages

·         China’s pigs to take half a decade to recover from killer virus



China reshapes global meat markets as swine fever rages


By Nigel Hunt, Reuters

via WKZO - November 08, 2019


LONDON/BEIJING (Reuters) - China is scouring the world for meat to replace the millions of pigs killed by African swine fever (ASF), boosting prices, business and profits for European and South American meatpackers as it re-shapes global markets for pork, beef and chicken.


The European Union, the world's second largest pork producer after China, has ramped up sales to the Asian giant although it can only fill part of the shortfall caused by ASF. Argentina and Brazil have approved new export plants to meet demand and are selling beef and chickens, as well as pork, to fill the gap. U.S. producers, however, have been hampered due to tariffs imposed by Beijing.


Other Asian countries are also ready to step up imports as they, too, deal with outbreaks of ASF. Vietnam, the Philippines, North and South Korea, Laos, Myanmar and Cambodia are all struggling to contain outbreaks of the disease, which is deadly to pigs although not harmful to humans.


"It is very good news for those involved in processing and have licenses for exports to China," said Justin Sherrard, global strategist, animal protein at Rabobank.


Major EU pork processors include Danish Crown, Tonnies Group and Vion Food Group although the market is fragmented with many small- and medium-size players.


Shortages in the world's top pork consumer have been exacerbated by the upcoming Lunar New Year celebrations in late January, when pork, and pork dumplings in particular, play a central role in the food on offer.


One of the biggest European players Danish Crown said there had been a very clear jump in demand from China in the run-up to the Lunar New Year and it was bullish on the outlook for 2020.


China's state-owned agriculture conglomerate COFCO said this week it had agreed to buy $100 million of pork from Danish Crown in 2020 to help ease the domestic shortage.











China’s pigs to take half a decade to recover from killer virus


Agnieszka de Sousa, Bloomberg

via The Detroit News - Nov. 8, 2019


China’s pig herd will take more than half a decade to recover from a deadly virus, and even then the nation’s meat consumption won’t be the same as before, according to Rabobank International.


The world’s biggest pork market won’t stabilize from the damage inflicted by African swine fever until 2025 and meat imports can’t make up the shortfall, the bank said. China’s hog herd has more than halved to less than 200 million since the first case was reported in August last year, the bank said.


“It isn’t fully appreciated that the market will take years probably half a decade to rebalance,” Chenjun Pan, an analyst at Rabobank, said in a statement on Friday. “Even when the market does rebalance, it’s going to be a different meat environment in China.”


China is desperately trying to increase production and import more pork and other meats like beef and chicken to satisfy domestic demand. Local retail prices have surged, indicating that shortages are starting to bite. Rabobank expects the virus to kill a quarter of the word’s pig population, and the bank sees the recovery taking longer than Chinese officials have signaled.


During a recent visit to major livestock provinces of Shandong, Hebei and Henan, Chinese Vice Premier Hu Chunhua urged local governments to resume pig production as soon possible, with a target of returning to normal levels next year.


The crisis will have long-lasting effects on China’s meat industry, according to Rabobank. When the market recovers, pork will remain the country’s protein of choice, but its share of meat consumption will fall to 53% from a recent 63%, it said. Poultry’s share of demand is forecast to increase to 30% by 2025.


“For China, and the global market, this will be the new normal,” Pan said. The Chinese will consume more chilled, frozen and processed meat rather than the preferred fresh warm pork, she said...