[Fri]: China is still “scouring” the world for meat to replace the supply lost by African swine fever, a Reuters report said. The article goes on to discuss the European Union’s impact, as other Asian countries are dealing with losses due to the disease as well… [Thurs]: National carcass base down 23 cents… USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon fell 30 cents… The deferred contracts saw gains in the lean hog markets as news that the U.S. and China are closer to a deal helped prices, but the December contract still came in lower. Exports were down for last week, coming in at 16,600 tonnes, compared to the four-week average of 93,225… 

 

Farm Commodity Newsletter/Iowa Farmer Today

 

Fri 11/8/2019 8:46 AM

 

Lean hogs - Stewart-Peterson said the current premium of futures to cash brought in some selling later in the day. “Prices are moving back towards the lower end of their recent consolidation range,” they said.

 

“The 2020 contracts are in a position to work higher due to the active export pace and improving prospects for a China/U.S. trade agreement,” The Hightower Report said. “Some uncertainties on a deal developed overnight and this could keep the trade choppy.”

 

ASF losses could make an impact soon

 

China is still “scouring” the world for meat to replace the supply lost by African swine fever, a Reuters report said. The article goes on to discuss the European Union’s impact, as other Asian countries are dealing with losses due to the disease as well.

 

Despite the December live cattle trend losing “a bit of momentum,” Stewart-Peterson said tat the trend is still pointing to higher prices. They added that yesterday’s higher close in beef values should allow the cash markets to continue rallying today.

 

Thu 11/7/2019 4:12 PM

 

In weighted average negotiated prices for barrows and gilts, USDA reported;

 

National carcass base down 23 cents to $45.21/cwt.

National live was up $2.20, staying at $35.80

 

USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon fell 30 cents at $80.64/cwt.

 

Hogs started off trade today strong, but pressure limited gains in the market, Oliver Sloup of Blue Line Futures said. Despite volatile trade, Sloup said the market has overall moved sideways.

 

The lean hog contract isn't finding the same support in the front months as soybeans are, Mike Lung of Allendale said this afternoon. "There is a little bearish market," he said.

 

Cattle slower for second day

 

The cattle markets continued their slowdown today, as the December contract finished unchanged today. Export sales are high, The Hightower Report said, and still posted new highs today.

 

The deferred contracts saw gains in the lean hog markets as news that the U.S. and China are closer to a deal helped prices, but the December contract still came in lower. Exports were down for last week, coming in at 16,600 tonnes, compared to the four-week average of 93,225.

 

Exports help soybeans, corn and wheat behind

 

Export sales and stronger cash markets helped support the soybeans today as the other grains fell. Corn and wheat markets are dealing with poor exports and no new news.

 

Meanwhile, Phase 1 negotiations between the U.S. and China are assumed to be moving positively, which also gave a boost to the soybean market.

 

Corn

 

“Technicals have been lackluster,” Oliver Sloup of Blue Line Futures said. “Demand has been lackluster.” He said that demand is the key ingredient for the market moving forward.

 

Pressure came from the light export sales today, as the 488,000 tonnes were expected but below what is needed, Ami L. Heesch of CHS Hedging said. Meanwhile, South Africa is dealing with more warm, dry weather which will delay plantings and create drought-like conditions which may impact markets.

 

Soybeans

 

Overnight reports that the U.S. agreed to walk back on some tariffs with China helped the soybeans today, as they rallied up into double-digit gains, Oliver Sloup of Blue Line Futures said.

 

There could be some resistance coming as Brazil farmers are "active" sellers at the moment, Steve Freed of ADM Investor Services said. Meanwhile, bulls are looking for low numbers in tomorrow's report, while bears are expected to sell any rallies.

 

Wheat

 

Technical weakness and weakness in corn gave presure to the wheat market, Ami L. Heesch of CHS Hedging said. Exports today were "disappointing" she said at 361,000 tonnes.

 

There is hope the USDA will reduce Argentinan and Australian crop numbers which might offer some support, but with Russia and EU numbers expected to rise on tomorrow's report, that would cancel any gains, Steve Freed of ADM Investor Services said.

 

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