[Fri]: The beef market “remains strong,” The Hightower Report said, but they note a warning flag may be waving. Steer weights jumped six pounds in just one week, which creates caution for some traders… [Thurs]: Boxed beef cutout values this afternoon were higher… Choice rose $1.15… Select went up $1.49… In negotiated cash sales in Nebraska, the USDA reported 8,497 head sold dressed at $181-182, with 149 sold live at $114. In Iowa/Minnesota, 1,704 head were sold live at $112-116, and 2,101 head were sold dressed at $177-182…
Farm Commodity Newsletter/Iowa Farmer Today
Fri 11/8/2019 8:46 AM
Cattle - The beef market “remains strong,” The Hightower Report said, but they note a warning flag may be waving. Steer weights jumped six pounds in just one week, which creates caution for some traders.
“Futures are extremely overbought basis stochastic indicators which have given off sell signals and a turn down in open interest might suggest that fund buying is slowing,” The Hightower Report said.
ASF losses could make an impact soon
China is still “scouring” the world for meat to replace the supply lost by African swine fever, a Reuters report said. The article goes on to discuss the European Union’s impact, as other Asian countries are dealing with losses due to the disease as well.
Despite the December live cattle trend losing “a bit of momentum,” Stewart-Peterson said tat the trend is still pointing to higher prices. They added that yesterday’s higher close in beef values should allow the cash markets to continue rallying today.
Thu 11/7/2019 4:12 PM
Boxed beef cutout values this afternoon were higher on moderate to fairly good demand and moderate offerings, USDA said.
Choice rose $1.15 to $238.29/cwt.
Select went up $1.49 to $213.02.
In negotiated cash sales in Nebraska, the USDA reported 8,497 head sold dressed at $181-182, with 149 sold live at $114. In Iowa/Minnesota, 1,704 head were sold live at $112-116, and 2,101 head were sold dressed at $177-182.
The market may be “a little bit tired,” Oliver Sloup of Blue Line Futures said, as the market has been overbought “for over a month straight.” He said it looks like buyers are starting to step away, and the potential for long liquidation is around.
The cattle markets are dealing with uncertainty right now, Mike Lung of Allendale said. The rally from early September has the market well bought.
Cattle slower for second day
The cattle markets continued their slowdown today, as the December contract finished unchanged today. Export sales are high, The Hightower Report said, and still posted new highs today.
The deferred contracts saw gains in the lean hog markets as news that the U.S. and China are closer to a deal helped prices, but the December contract still came in lower. Exports were down for last week, coming in at 16,600 tonnes, compared to the four-week average of 93,225.
Exports help soybeans, corn and wheat behind
Export sales and stronger cash markets helped support the soybeans today as the other grains fell. Corn and wheat markets are dealing with poor exports and no new news.
Meanwhile, Phase 1 negotiations between the U.S. and China are assumed to be moving positively, which also gave a boost to the soybean market.
“Technicals have been lackluster,” Oliver Sloup of Blue Line Futures said. “Demand has been lackluster.” He said that demand is the key ingredient for the market moving forward.
Pressure came from the light export sales today, as the 488,000 tonnes were expected but below what is needed, Ami L. Heesch of CHS Hedging said. Meanwhile, South Africa is dealing with more warm, dry weather which will delay plantings and create drought-like conditions which may impact markets.
Overnight reports that the U.S. agreed to walk back on some tariffs with China helped the soybeans today, as they rallied up into double-digit gains, Oliver Sloup of Blue Line Futures said.
There could be some resistance coming as Brazil farmers are "active" sellers at the moment, Steve Freed of ADM Investor Services said. Meanwhile, bulls are looking for low numbers in tomorrow's report, while bears are expected to sell any rallies.
Technical weakness and weakness in corn gave presure to the wheat market, Ami L. Heesch of CHS Hedging said. Exports today were "disappointing" she said at 361,000 tonnes.
There is hope the USDA will reduce Argentinan and Australian crop numbers which might offer some support, but with Russia and EU numbers expected to rise on tomorrow's report, that would cancel any gains, Steve Freed of ADM Investor Services said.