In this file:
· FAO sees cereal boom, protein pinch and banana risks
… World meat production is expected to decline in 2019 for the first time in more than two decades…
· China's pork output to fall by at least 20% in 2019: FAO
… doubling the decline it had expected six months ago…
FAO sees cereal boom, protein pinch and banana risks
Food Outlook report assesses market trends around the world
Source: UN FAO
7 November 2019
Rome -World meat production is expected to decline in 2019 for the first time in more than two decades, as the African Swine Fever outbreak in China decimates pig herds, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.
Production of bovine, ovine, poultry and pig meats is forecast to total 335 million tonnes in carcass weight equivalent, 1.0 percent lower than the previous year, according to the Food Outlook published today.
The drop is driven by an anticipated contraction of at least 20 percent for pigmeat output in China, which usually accounts for close to half the world's production. Poultry output in China, by contrast, had been rapidly ramped up and is expected to grow by 17 percent year-on-year, containing the country's total meat output decline to 8 percent.
Pigmeat typically accounts for more than a third of worldwide meat output, poultry for 39 percent and bovine meat for 21 percent.
Global production of poultry - which accounts for a larger share of all meat than pigmeat - as well as that of bovine and ovine meat is expected to grow this year, with increases anticipated Argentina, Brazil, the European Union and the United States of America, Global trade in meat products is forecast to grow by 6.7 percent this year, compared to a slowing trend observed for many food commodities.
Food Outlook assesses market and production trends for a wide array of food commodities, including cereals, fish, sugar, oilcrops and milk as well as meat. The current edition also has a special report on the threat to global banana markets posed by Fusarium Wilt Tropical Race 4 (TR4), which was recently detected for the first time in Latin America.
Food use of staple cereals expands ...
Banana vigilance ...
more, including links
China's pork output to fall by at least 20% in 2019: FAO
Reporting by Sybille de La Hamaide; editing by Jason Neely, Reuters
Nov 7, 2019
PARIS (Reuters) - African swine fever (ASF) will cut pork output in China, the world’s largest producer, by at least 20% in 2019, the United Nations’ food agency said on Thursday, doubling the decline it had expected six months ago.
The disease has slashed China’s hog herd since August 2018, pushing Chinese pork prices to record highs, while reshaping global meat and feed markets.
With the disease also spreading to neighboring countries, notably Vietnam, Laos, Mongolia and Cambodia, the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) expects world pigmeat production to fall 8.5% this year to 110.5 million tonnes (carcass weight equivalent).
In May, the FAO had forecast that Chinese pigmeat output would fall by at least 10%.
The World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE) forecast last week that African swine fever would spread further across Asia where it has devastated herds. It said no country is immune from being hit by the deadly animal virus.
The fall in pork production in Asia would impact maize and oilseed use for feed, the FAO said.
“World trade in meat and meat products is forecast at 36.0 million tonnes in 2019, up 6.7% from 2018, principally driven by increased imports by China...