In this file:
· Column: U.S. corn exports falter, and soy business could meet same fate
· 2019 Ag Exports Fall Below USDA Expectations
· USDA Report Seen Favoring The Corn 'Bears'
Column: U.S. corn exports falter, and soy business could meet same fate
Karen Braun, Reuters
November 7, 2019
FORT COLLINS, Colo. (Reuters) - It is no secret that overseas demand for U.S. corn has been downright terrible as of late, and relief does not seem likely in the immediate term as purchase commitments remain dismal. Forward sales for U.S. soybeans are nothing to brag about either, but soy exporters have enjoyed more success recently than those for corn.
The United States exported 3.89 million tonnes of soybeans in September, according to data published Tuesday by the U.S. Census Bureau. That is 17% more than in the previous year and the second-largest ever for the month, behind 4.5 million tonnes in 2017.
This follows a string of monthly soybean export records set in June, July, and August, and that was mostly due to heavier activity for China than is typical for the time of year.
Some 966,626 tonnes of soybeans were shipped to top buyer China, making up 25% of the monthly exports, and that was both the lowest monthly volume and share of total since April.
According to weekly export inspection data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, October soybean shipments likely came in just over 5.8 million tonnes, some 7% more than a year earlier and potentially the largest monthly total since December 2017.
About 1.6 million tonnes of the October exports went to China, with the bulk of the activity occurring in the final two weeks of the month. This implies that shipments to all other destinations likely surpassed 4 million tonnes for only the fourth month in history.
But the forward book remains thin compared with previous years. As of Oct. 24, total U.S. soybean sales for the 2019-20 marketing year stood at 19.27 million tonnes, the lowest for the date since 2011. The marketing year began Sept. 1.
Sales to China are up more than five times versus the year-ago volume, but all other purchases are down sharply from last year’s record, when the trade war with China put U.S. soybeans on sale to the rest of the world.
Non-China sales, including unknown buyers, were at 13.1 million tonnes as of Oct. 24, down 36% on the year and the lowest for the date since 2015. Mexico is the largest buyer in that group with 2.5 million tonnes booked as of Oct. 24.
The Oct. 24 export sales report also suggested that 11.3 million tonnes of soybeans purchased for 2019-20 had yet to be shipped, down from around 14 million a year ago. However, the previous four-year average is 21.5 million tonnes.
CORN TROUBLES ...
OTHER SEPTEMBER NOTABLES ...
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2019 Ag Exports Fall Below USDA Expectations
by Jim Wiesemeyer, AgWeb
Nov 06, 2019
U.S. ag exports miss USDA’s forecast for FY 2019. U.S. agriculture exports in September totaled $10.30 billion against imports of $10.08 billion for a monthly surplus of $219.8 million. That put U.S. ag exports for Fiscal Year (FY) 2019 at $135.57 billion against imports of $130.94 billion for a trade surplus of $4.63 billion. USDA’s forecast for exports was too robust at $137 billion while their import outlook was too conservative at $129 billion.
The level of imports still registered a new record even as the September result was the second lowest of FY 2019. But imports topped $11 billion four months in FY 2019 with one of those months seeing imports of more than $12 billion.
The September ag export total was the lowest of FY 2019 and the smallest monthly export total since June 2016...
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USDA Report Seen Favoring The Corn 'Bears'
Soybean Prices Could Get A Lift From Friday's Data Successful Marketing Newsletter Says.
By Bob Linneman, Successful Farming
Agriculture.com - 11/6/2019
In a typical year, the November and December USDA Supply and Demand reports do not warrant high levels of uncertainty. That is, traders have a good idea of what will be said regarding U.S production estimates up to that point.
However, 2019 could easily be an exception. Traders are generally expecting to see the report favor the bears for corn and favor the bulls for soybeans. The slow harvest pace this fall does add some volatility as traders are still not certain how the USDA will handle the estimates.
The U.S. stock market hit new all-time highs this week.
There are many economists and analysts who do not like some of the data from different sectors across the U.S. Some of the data suggests the U.S. is started down the path similar to recent recessions.
However, others would say that a signed trade deal with China will fix those problems. One viable reason the U.S. stock market continues to climb is that foreign investors view the U.S. as the safest option at the moment...