In this file:

 

·         Focusing On ASF and China? Analyst Says to Look at Domestic Herd

… Payne says U.S. producers have expanded so much that it’s pushing summer prices “at the highs they were a year ago already”... “[The slaughter numbers] are at 2.5 million [hogs] a week to 2.7 million [hogs] a week, that is bringing on a lot of supply and somebody has to buy that and the U.S. consumer is not,” said Payne…

 

·         U.S. livestock: Lean hog futures retreat as interim China trade deal delayed

… The developments sparked worry that U.S. pork shipments, which have fallen short of market expectations so far this year, are not ramping up quickly enough to absorb excess supplies from an historically large U.S. hog herd…

 

 

Focusing On ASF and China? Analyst Says to Look at Domestic Herd

 

AgDay TV

via FarmJournal's Pork - November 6, 2019

 

Most lean hog contracts traded in the red Wednesday. It’s just one example that the market has been a rollercoaster.

 

“It’s been a difficult, difficult run,” said John Payne of Daniels Trading.

 

However, most producers look at two different stories to figure out price.

 

The first is African Swine Fever (ASF). The second thing is the possibility of a Chinese trade deal.

 

“China is the biggest producer of pork,” said John Payne of Daniels Trading. “They are the biggest end-user of pork. They are also the biggest grower of pork. As we know, their herd is down.”

 

However, producers may want to look at what’s going on domestically, too. Payne says the U.S. domestic herd is a different story with increasing expansion.

 

“I think from someone who has to manage risk, the risk is there,” said Payne. “We are seeing feeder pig prices in Northwest Iowa and in the Dakotas bare bones which is telling us there is no place to put these things.”

 

Payne says U.S. producers have expanded so much that it’s pushing summer prices “at the highs they were a year ago already.”

 

“We are seeing the front-month [contract] spill off into the lows,” said Payne.

 

“[The slaughter numbers] are at 2.5 million [hogs] a week to 2.7 million [hogs] a week, that is bringing on a lot of supply and somebody has to buy that and the U.S. consumer is not,” said Payne…

 

more, including video report [2:45 min.]  

https://www.porkbusiness.com/article/focusing-asf-and-china-analyst-says-look-domestic-herd

 

 

U.S. livestock: Lean hog futures retreat as interim China trade deal delayed

 

By Karl Plume, Reuters

via Canadian Cattlemen - November 6, 2019

 

Chicago | Reuters – U.S. lean hog futures retreated on Wednesday, surrendering nearly all of the prior session’s strong gains on worries about U.S. pork exports to China after a senior White House official said a “phase one” trade deal with the world’s top pork consumer could be delayed.

 

The delay followed news that Canada is set to resume pork exports to China following a four-month halt amid diplomatic tensions and a deal by China’s COFCO to buy $100 million of European pork.

 

The developments sparked worry that U.S. pork shipments, which have fallen short of market expectations so far this year, are not ramping up quickly enough to absorb excess supplies from an historically large U.S. hog herd.

 

A meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping to sign a long-awaited interim trade deal could be delayed until December as discussions continue over terms and venue, a senior official of the Trump administration told Reuters on Wednesday.

 

Trump and Xi had been expected to meet at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum in Chile this month before that event was canceled.

 

“That would be a bearish factor if you were counting on exports picking up soon after the original APEC date in November,” said Alan Brugler, president of Brugler Marketing & Management.

 

Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) December lean hog futures tumbled 2.500 cents to 64.775 cents per pound. February futures fell 0.975 to 72.775 cents per pound.

 

Losses in deferred-month contracts were lessened by expectations that pork exports to China would eventually ramp up after the deadly hog disease African swine fever decimated its industry.

 

A report released by the U.S. pork industry on Wednesday forecast rising pork imports through 2022.

 

CME live cattle futures finished mostly lower in a profit-taking pullback...

 

more

https://www.canadiancattlemen.ca/daily/u-s-livestock-lean-hog-futures-retreat-as-interim-china-trade-deal-delayed/