In this file:
· US Media: China Is Importing a Record Amount of Meat
… Purchases this year are likely to be 5 million tons and increase even more next year, said Wang Bin, a vice director at the nation’s commerce ministry… Despite the push to buy more from abroad, Beijing has said there isn’t enough pork available in the world to fill the supply gap...
· China Media: China Rolls out Favourable Policies to Drive Pork Price to Drop
… Since August, pork purchases in the canteens of enterprises and public institutions in Beijing have dropped by about 30% on month-on-month basis. Individual consumer purchases of pork have dropped nearly 30 percent since October…
· China ASF Driving Pork Trade
The pork shortage in China caused by African swine fever continues to overcome high import tariffs for U.S. pork heading to the Chinese market…
China Is Importing a Record Amount of Meat
November 6, 2019
China’s meat imports will hit record levels this year and next, as the nation diversifies suppliers to cope with the ravages of African swine fever in the pork market.
Purchases this year are likely to be 5 million tons and increase even more next year, said Wang Bin, a vice director at the nation’s commerce ministry. Still, domestic pork supply should recover in the second half of 2020 as China stabilizes its pig production and as long as swine fever doesn’t return in a big way, he said.
With swine fever expected to cut China’s hog herd in half to about 200 million pigs, the country has opened the door to greater imports of not only pork but substitutes like beef and chicken. That’s had a knock-on effect on the global market, with meat prices rising to the highest in almost five years.
Still, with pork prices continuing to hit record levels in China, demand for the meat could collapse by 50%, according to the farm ministry’s Institute of Food and Nutrition Development in Beijing.
Households are now switching to other sources, pushing up the price of alternates like beef and poultry, alarming the government and giving the central bank an inflation headache. Even egg futures hit a record last week.
Despite the push to buy more from abroad, Beijing has said there isn’t enough pork available in the world to fill the supply gap...
more, including links, chart
China Rolls out Favourable Policies to Drive Pork Price to Drop
Xianfeng Li, Business Times (China)
Nov 07, 2019
As the Chinese central and local reserves of meat will be continuously put into market, along with the import of pork and beef increase significantly, the growth of pork price will fall thanks to the favorable policies and stable epidemic situation.
High pork prices have had a noticeable dampening effect on demand, with experts finding out that consumers are adjusting their menus to other meats as costs rise.
"The country's pig production capacity is showing signs of recovery, and the current rise in pork prices is not sustainable. "Zhu Zengyong, an associate researcher at the institute of agricultural information under the Chinese academy of agricultural sciences, told The Economic Daily.
On October 31, the average wholesale price of pig carcass in Beijing Xinfandi Agricultural Products Wholesale Market was RMB48.26(USD6.89)/kg, up 53.21% from RMB31.5(USD4.5)/kg on October 1.
Since August, pork purchases in the canteens of enterprises and public institutions in Beijing have dropped by about 30% on month-on-month basis. Individual consumer purchases of pork have dropped nearly 30 percent since October. Merchants at the Xinfadi Agricultural Wholesale Market in Beijing said they sold 10 pieces of pig carcass a day in August, and they sell only seven pieces now, that is far cry from 14 during the same period last year.
"Although the daily market volume of pig carcass in Xinfadi Agricultural Wholesale Market has dropped a lot compared with the same period last year, some of them are still returned to the factory because they are unsalable. "Beijing Xinfadi Agricultural Products Wholesale Market statistics department manager Liu Tong said .
As pig prices continue to rise, many farmers are reluctant to sell. Monitoring data showed that in October, the live weight of hogs from Shandong Province and other major producing areas have increased from 120 kg to more than 140 kg under normal conditions. In view of the central and local level of reserve meat will continue to release, pork imports and beef imports have increased significantly, the increase in pork prices will fall.
Meanwhile, favourable policies will lead to the pork price decrease. The enthusiasm of bolting and increasing production around the country is obviously improved, which is expected to drive the recovery of pig production capacity.
Since September, with the implementation of various favorable policies of relevant departments to support pig production, the enthusiasm of farmers to supplement and increase production has been significantly improved. Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs data showed that the second half of pig farm capacity has been restored. So far, more than 20 provinces have introduced policies to support pig production. Under the policy support, the recent large-scale pig farm production recovery is fast.
In September, the number of pigs in China's large-scale pig farms with an annual output of more than 5,000 pigs increased by 0.6% on a month-on-month basis, among which the number of breeding sows increased by 3.7% on a month-on-month basis.
Pig feed production and sales overall rebound also confirmed the recovery of pig capacity. In September, the output of pig feed increased by 10%...
China ASF Driving Pork Trade
By Chris Clayton, DTN Ag Policy Editor
via Ohio's Country Journal - November 6, 2019
OMAHA (DTN) — The pork shortage in China caused by African swine fever continues to overcome high import tariffs for U.S. pork heading to the Chinese market.
Dan Halstrom, president and CEO of the U.S Meat Export Federation, said on a call Tuesday he was “feeling pretty upbeat about our export markets right now” as beef, pork and lamb are picking up momentum.
Overall, beef exports are expected to end 2019 largely even in exports compared to 2018, but USMEF projects 5% growth in 2020. Pork exports are up a minimum 10% compared to 2018. Pork exports in 2020 are projected to grow another 13%. Halstrom said those figures could be conservative for pork exports.
USMEF provided an update on Tuesday before kicking off its strategic planning conference in Arizona. Updated data for September meat exports will be released by USDA on Wednesday then will be summarized by USMEF on its website as well.
The USMEF update also came as Canadian officials announced Tuesday that China would resume imports of Canadian beef and pork. Even as pork prices have escalated for Chinese consumers, the Chinese government had banned imports of Canadian beef and pork since June over what the Chinese government alleged were forged export certificates.
CHINA DEMAND FROM ASF
The demand for pork in China right now leads to questions over just when the U.S. and China will reach “phase one” of a trade deal centered on agricultural sales to China. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross and others in the Trump administration have expressed confidence that a deal will be signed this month.
“We’re in good shape, we’re making good progress, and there’s no natural reason why it couldn’t be,” Ross said on Bloomberg Television over the weekend.
Despite retaliatory tariffs from China now at 72% against U.S. pork, sales to China were still at record levels in July and August. USMEF expects that kind of growth to continue into 2020. The U.S. is competing with countries that have just 12% export duties going into China. The U.S. has about 13% of the China pork import market.
Joel Haggard, senior vice president for the USMEF Asian Pacific market, said pork exports are growing, but could grow much more rapidly without the punishing 72% tariff.
African swine fever (ASF) led to the rapid slaughter of millions of hogs in late 2018 and early 2019 across China. For months, Chinese consumers were taking advantage of that high slaughter volume because ASF is not a food-safety issue for humans. Since late summer, however, domestic pork supplies have fallen dramatically. Pork prices at retail have gone up 80% in parts of China just since August, Haggard said.
For the first nine months of 2019, Chinese officials reported that total meat and poultry imports were 4.3 million metric tons, an increase of 1.1 million metric tons from the same time period in 2018. Still, China now is facing as much as a 10 mmt shortfall.
“They are having difficulty filling this shortfall,” Haggard said, adding that prices for European pork going into China have spiked as well. “That’s a sign of the strain of the global supply chain to be able to supply China with what they need.”
So there is great expectation that demand for all meat proteins going into China will be high in 2020. This leads to the question of just when the U.S. agreement with China will get done and what that will mean for those tariffs on pork and other proteins.
The need in China “makes U.S. pork still viable even with a 72% duty, but we are the supply of last resort because of that duty,” Haggard said. He added, “So we are the supplier of last resort, but we could grow.”
If all of the barriers against U.S. pork were removed in a best-case scenario, Haggard set a high number and suggested the U.S. could export as much 1.6 mmt of pork to China in 2020. In comparison, the U.S. sent 220,000 metric tons in 2018. That would translate into more than 725% growth in pork sales to China over a two-year stretch.
China is also the world’s largest beef importer, but the U.S. now has just a 1% market share. Haggard said beef exports are challenged not only by tariffs, but also China’s tough restrictions on growth hormones.
Through Oct. 24, USDA had reported 241,000 metric tons of pork sales to China for 2019.
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