[Thurs]: Of the 465 million pounds of September pork exports in the Census data, 14.53% went to China, Alan Brugler reported… Reuters reported that global meat shippers have three years to make the most of the outbreak of a fatal pig disease in China before Chinese pork imports peak… [Weds]: National carcass base was 80 cents lower… Iowa-Minnesota carcass base fell $1.62… The USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon were up $1.44… “Export sales lately have not met expectations, though yesterday’s sharp jump in pork values may be hinting at a large purchase,” Stewart-Peterson said. “December hogs are trading at a large premium to the cash market, which is a limiting factor though the downtrend in the index may be stabilizing”…
Farm Commodity Newsletter/Iowa Farmer Today
Thu 11/7/2019 8:40 AM
Lean hogs - Of the 465 million pounds of September pork exports in the Census data, 14.53% went to China, Alan Brugler reported. China has received 539.806 million pounds of U.S. pork already this year, which is 37.84% higher than 2018’s entire yearly total, with three months to add more.
Cost of live hogs in Vietnam has pushed to an all-time high, according to The Hightower Report.
Pork market geared for upswing
Reuters reported that global meat shippers have three years to make the most of the outbreak of a fatal pig disease in China before Chinese pork imports peak, according to a report released by the U.S. pork industry, which is competing for sales against Europe and South America.
Fed cattle activity has been show to non-existent so far this week. Packers have little to gain by pushing the market each day and will likely wait and conclude purchases all at once rather than chase prices higher daily, according to The Cattle Report.
Wed 11/6/2019 4:25 PM
In weighted average negotiated prices for barrows and gilts, USDA reported:
National carcass base was 80 cents lower to $45.15/cwt.
National live was down 88 cents to $38.14
Iowa-Minnesota carcass base fell $1.62 to $44.00
The USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon were up $1.44 to $80.94/cwt.
Analysts were watching pork export values, among other factors.
“Export sales lately have not met expectations, though yesterday’s sharp jump in pork values may be hinting at a large purchase,” Stewart-Peterson said. “December hogs are trading at a large premium to the cash market, which is a limiting factor though the downtrend in the index may be stabilizing.”
“The inability of the pork cut-out values to continue to rally into late yesterday added to the bearish tone,” the Hightower Report said. “Cash hogs are also drifting lower this week and that leaves December hogs at a stiff premium to the cash market.”
Rumors of delayed deal spark selling pressure
“December cattle closed moderately lower on the day but well up from the lows,” the Hightower Report said. “Some weakness in beef cut-out values kept the market under pressure, and news of a delay until December for a trade deal with China was enough to spark some long liquidation selling pressure.”
December hogs closed sharply lower on the day and the nearby contract led the market lower, according to the Hightower Report.
“An executive with the Trump administration indicated that the U.S.-China trade deal could be delayed until December as discussions continue over the terms and venue,” the report said.
'Marking time' ahead of report
Soybean markets are anticipating a trade deal between the U.S. and China getting closer, although they’re not taking off just yet.
“Despite the markets feeling that the U.S. and China are growing closer and closer to signing the Phase 1 trade deal, speculators appear somewhat hesitant to take beans higher on this speculation,” Stewart-Peterson said.
Overall, it was a fairly quiet day for grain markets as traders waited for more fresh information. “Quiet day in the grain markets as the trade marks time ahead of Friday’s USDA report,” Ami Heesch, with CHS Hedging, said. “Producers are not willing sellers at current price levels as the focus is on getting the crop harvested rather than getting the crop marketed.”
“Corn prices were slightly stronger on delays in the harvest progress from moisture holding above 20% in many areas,” Ami Heesch, with CHS Hedging, said. “This year’s corn export demand is much lower than what is needed to achieve the USDA’s target. There could be a fair number of acres that have corn standing well into winter, if not all the way to next spring.”
“Corn prices are drifting due to a continued lack of anything positive on the export front as well as position-taking ahead of Friday’s Supply and Demand report,” Stewart-Peterson said. “The demand side of the balance sheet is likely to get smaller once again on Friday morning, more than likely overwhelming any production declines the corn market may or may not see.”
Soybeans were lower on a few factors, including slow progress on a U.S. and China trade deal.
“The soybean market traded lower on harvest pressure and disappointment from the ongoing Phase I talks between the US and China,” Ami Heesch, with CHS Hedging, said. “Chatter today was that the deal could get rolled back to December.”
Soybean analysts and traders were looking ahead to the next USDA report.
“Traders are anticipating tomorrow’s USDA weekly report to indicate soybean oil export sales to range from 5,000-25,000 MT,” Barchart.com said. “A Reuters survey ahead of Friday’s USDA report indicated traders are expecting world ending stocks of soybeans to be 93.85 MMT.”
“The wheat market traded mixed with light buying interest emerging in Chicago from ongoing crop concerns in Argentina and Australia,” Ami Heesch, with CHS Hedging, said. “Producers are unwilling sellers at current price levels, as they are more engaged in the row crop harvest. The winter wheat is set to get a pretty good shot of moisture with little or no concerns about damage to the crop.”
“Talk of lower Australian crop may have offered support,” Steve Freed, with ADM Investor Services, said. “Lower corn and soybean price action may have weighed on prices. Brazil said they will allow 700 mt duty free wheat to be imported. They usually import 5.0 mmt annually and most of that is from Argentina.”