[Tues]: The Hightower Report says that the surge higher in pork values yesterday is “significant” and if there is some follow through higher, it could be a sign that imports, mainly China, are getting more “aggressive”… [Mon]: National carcass base fell $1.67… Iowa-Minnesota carcass base up 52 cents… USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon rose $3.11… Part of the drop in hog markets today had to do with China’s spot pig price dropping 0.78% overnight, and overall down 1.94% for the month, Stewart-Peterson said. However, prices are still up 200% compared to this time last year… Lean hog contracts are dealing with an overall weakness in pork product prices, which saw many contracts finish in the red today, The Hightower Report said. “The upside daily closing price reversal gives the market a bullish tilt,” they added… 

 

Farm Commodity Newsletter/Iowa Farmer Today

 

Tue 11/5/2019 8:56 AM

 

Lean hogs - The Hightower Report says that the surge higher in pork values yesterday is “significant” and if there is some follow through higher, it could be a sign that imports, mainly China, are getting more “aggressive”.

 

“The jump in pork values to the highest since August is a bullish demand development and suggests elevated export levels,” The Hightower Report said.

 

China looking to control ASF

 

China's ag ministry said it will reduce the number of small-scale slaughterhouses to better prevent and control African swine fever, Allendale said. “There are too many small slaughterhouses in some places in China, equipped with old facilities and backward production techniques, and checks on the pork quality are not done properly, the Ministry of Ag and Rural Affairs said.”

 

Here in the U.S., there’s still no sign of a peak on beef prices having been reached, and pork prices surged upward yesterday, The Hightower Report said.

 

Mon 11/4/2019 4:37 PM

 

In weighted average negotiated prices for barrows and gilts, USDA reported;

 

National carcass base fell $1.67 to $46.81/cwt.

National live was down 15 cents, to $39.09

Iowa-Minnesota carcass base up 52 cents to $46.47

 

USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon rose $3.11 to $78.75/cwt.

 

Part of the drop in hog markets today had to do with China’s spot pig price dropping 0.78% overnight, and overall down 1.94% for the month, Stewart-Peterson said. However, prices are still up 200% compared to this time last year.

 

There is a “bearish cloud” hanging over the futures market, Virginia McGathey of McGathey Commodities said. “The trend remains sideways to a little lower right now,” she added, saying that everyone is watching trade negotiations.

 

Cattle fights overbought condition

 

Cattle markets held on to their rally today despite some two-sided trade early on. “This jump was made possible by strong packer margins stemming from strong retail demand for holiday beef supplies,” Stewart-Peterson said.

 

Lean hog contracts are dealing with an overall weakness in pork product prices, which saw many contracts finish in the red today, The Hightower Report said. “The upside daily closing price reversal gives the market a bullish tilt,” they added.

 

Crop progress continues to lag behind

 

Allendale’s Monica Moehring said trade is primarily following the possible signing of Phase 1 of the U.S./China trade deal, and it may be signed in Iowa by the end of the month, according to some reports.

 

This afternoon’s crop progress report showed corn at 52% harvested, compared the five-year average of 75%. That is up from last week’s mark of 41%.

 

Soybeans moved up to 75% harvested this week, up from 62% last week. That is behind the five-year average of 87%.

 

Corn

 

Corn prices are dealing with pressure from drier weather forecasts and spillover weakness from the wheat market, CHS Hedging said. “Weekly export inspections and sales continue to be disappointing, with this week’s inspections well below what the trade was looking for.”

 

With Friday marking a new Supply and Demand report, the market is expected to remain choppy going into it, according to Stewart-Peterson. “An improvement of weather this week as forecasts over the next 10-15 days see cold but dry weather which could help advance harvest also added selling pressure into the corn market.”

 

Soybeans

 

There is continued hope that China will continue to buy U.S. soybeans, and that exports are going to be above pace to reach the USDA goal, Steve Freed of ADM Investor Services said.

 

“As we move towards Friday’s supply and demand numbers, a lot of questions remain in front of the marketplace regarding the impact of weather, the late-season snowstorm across the northern Plains, and the overall quantity and quality of this year’s crop,” Stewart-Peterson said. “The market will likely stay choppy as we move into Friday’s numbers.”

 

Wheat

 

“The wheat market was on the defensive from lack of fresh supportive news, plentiful supplies, and dismal demand,” Ami L. Heesch of CHS Hedging said. “Spring wheat is basically harvested, and the winter wheat is basically planted.”

 

Wheat is also dealing with some pressure from “new Russian trade rules” at a world wheat conference, Steve Freed of ADM Investor Services said. That, combined with lower EU and Russian prices and a higher U.S. dollar limited action.

 

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