[Mon]: China trade uncertainty has been a major obstacle for hog buyers lately. China seemed to indicate overnight that a Phase 1 deal could be the only trade agreement between the U.S. and China anytime soon, according to Stewart-Peterson… [Fri]: National carcass base down 10 cents… Iowa-Minnesota carcass base down $1.03… USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon fell 41 cents… Hog prices were depressed today as there is concern about the U.S./China trade deal taking extra time, The Hightower Report said. “The jump in weights this week is a concern for the bulls,” they said…
Farm Commodity Newsletter/Iowa Farmer Today
Mon 11/4/2019 8:45 AM
Lean hogs - The USDA pork carcass finished the first day of November down by 41 cents to $75.64. The national average base hog price starts off the new month with a 10 cent dip to $48.95. USDA estimated weekly hog slaughter was 2.669 million head. The 2019 total slaughter estimate was 107.313 million head, according to Brugler Marketing & Management.
China trade uncertainty has been a major obstacle for hog buyers lately. China seemed to indicate overnight that a Phase 1 deal could be the only trade agreement between the U.S. and China anytime soon, according to Stewart-Peterson.
Beef supply meeting demand
This week's cattle slaughter volume moved higher to 655,000 head. This may satisfy some of the pent-up demand for beef, and slow or stop the rise in box prices, according to The Cattle Report.
Retailers are building inventory for the holiday season and employment is good and wages rising. Global meat supplies are short and many of our normal suppliers of imported beef are re-routing beef to China instead of the United States.
Fri 11/1/2019 4:14 PM
In weighted average negotiated prices for barrows and gilts, USDA reported;
National carcass base down 10 cents to $48.95/cwt.
National live was down 65 cents, hitting $38.57
Iowa-Minnesota carcass base down $1.03 to $47.10
USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon fell 41 cents at $75.64/cwt.
Hog prices were depressed today as there is concern about the U.S./China trade deal taking extra time, The Hightower Report said. “The jump in weights this week is a concern for the bulls,” they said.
Stewart-Peterson said the December hog contract is “nearly oversold,” as it fell near the lower third of its trading range. “Momentum is pointing lower in February hogs despite a nearly oversold condition,” they said.
Cattle closes week higher as hogs enter oversold territory
The December live cattle contract traded up $3.45 this week, with that trend continuing today, as the contract hit its highest point since April 25.
Slaughter came in slightly higher for cattle this week, up 15,000 head from last week, to 655,000 head. Lean hogs came in slightly down at 2.669 mln head, a 24,000 decrease from last week.
Delayed harvest may get a break
This morning, Reuters took a look at the delayed harvest affecting farmers, combined with the low commodity prices. They detailed how grain quality is being affected, which will affect many farmers’ bottom lines.
With this morning’s announcement of 132,000 metric tons of soybeans sold to China, beans saw good support to end the week, while wheat also closed higher on the day. “There could have been some money flowing into the markets with the start of a new month and recent weakness across the grain markets,” Ami L. Heesch of CHS Hedging said.
Corn prices were down as traders expect harvest to restart in earnest this weekend, Ami L. Heesch of CHS Hedging said. “Trade ranges were near 5 cents in modest volume.”
“We are continuing to concern ourselves over the percent of mature corn at 93% vs a 5-year average of 99%,” Stewart-Peterson said. In other words, 7% of the crop is considered not mature and what that actually looks like in final yield results, as well as quality, remains a big question mark.”
With news that the U.S. and China may be finding a new spot to sign a trade deal and November soybean deliveries in play, combined with slow farmer selling, prices were up, Steve Freed of ADM Investor Services said.
“Bullish traders have to be disappointed that futures, despite this week’s higher trade, are still trading below where they were just a few weeks ago,” Stewart-Peterson said.
“Chicago prices garnered support from a bout of short covering,” CHS Hedging’s Ami L. Heesch said. “Spring wheat bids on the west coast were said to be significantly higher this week on hopes for improving demand, amidst tight supplies of good quality protein and farmer reluctance to sell.”
Steve Freed of ADM Investor Services said wheat futures may be range bound “until more is known about global 2020 supply.” He said futures may have followed the rise of U.S. stock and energy prices and a lower U.S. dollar.