In this file:


·         Censky says U.S.-China ‘phase one’ deal is still on track

·         US hopes to sign China trade deal in weeks

·         China Doubts Long-Term Trade Deal Possible With Trump



Censky says U.S.-China ‘phase one’ deal is still on track


By Ken Anderson, Brownfield 

October 31, 2019


USDA deputy secretary Steve Censky says “all systems are go” for finalizing the “phase one” trade deal between the U.S. and China.


“I do know that those discussions between the United States and China have been continuing this week to try to finalize that agreement,” Censky says, “and so I think that goal of having it finalized by mid-November still remains.”


The cancellation of next month’s economic summit in Chile, where President Trump and China’s president Xi were reportedly going to sign the agreement, has raised some concerns about when it will get done. There are reports...





US hopes to sign China trade deal in weeks



via 9News (AS) - Oct 31, 2019


US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin says it will take time for Chinese purchases of US agricultural goods to "scale up" to the $US40 billion to $US50 billion annual level touted by President Donald Trump if the two sides can seal a "Phase 1" trade deal.


Mnuchin told Reuters in an interview in Saudi Arabia that the $US40 billion to $US50 billion ($A58-$A73 billion) target is "a lot," but is based on "very specific discussions" of product purchase commitments by China.


"This is built on a bottom-up basis of both what we think we can deliver and what they think they need," Mnuchin said on the sidelines of the Future Investment Initiative conference in Riyadh. "It's a one-year target, but obviously it's going to take some time to scale up."


The target is twice the amount of farm goods the United States exported to China in 2017, the last year unaffected by duelling tariffs of the nearly 16-month trade war between the world's two largest economies.


Some people briefed on the talks have said they expect the Phase 1 deal to start with China's agriculture purchases to simply resume at the pre-trade war rates...





China Doubts Long-Term Trade Deal Possible With Trump


o   Stage 1 in the works but Chinese downplay prospect for others

o   APEC cancellation adds another hurdle for a star-crossed deal


Shawn Donnan, Jenny Leonard and Steven Yang, Bloomberg 

October 31, 2019


Chinese officials are casting doubts about reaching a comprehensive long-term trade deal with the U.S. even as the two sides get close to signing a “phase one” agreement.


In private conversations with visitors to Beijing and other interlocutors in recent weeks, Chinese officials have warned they won’t budge on the thorniest issues, according to people familiar with the matter. They remain concerned about President Donald Trump’s impulsive nature and the risk he may back out of even the limited deal both sides say they want to sign in the coming weeks.


Chinese policy makers are gathered in Beijing for a key political meeting that’s set to conclude on Thursday. In meetings ahead of that plenum some officials have relayed low expectations that future negotiations could result in anything meaningful -- unless the U.S. is willing to roll back more of the tariffs. In some cases, they’ve urged American visitors to carry that very message back to Washington, the people said.


Chilean President Sebastian Pinera threw up another hurdle when he announced Wednesday that the country had canceled the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit Nov. 16-17 -- where Trump and China’s Xi Jinping hoped to meet -- because of social unrest in the country.


U.S. stocks futures and government bond yields declined.


A White House spokesman said Wednesday, after the news of the cancellation, that the administration remains committed to “finalizing Phase One of the historic trade deal with China within the same time frame.”


That first step, according to the Trump administration, is meant to lead to a more comprehensive agreement involving more substantial economic reforms than those contained in the proposed initial phase. But Chinese officials are skeptical, saying that would require the U.S. to withdraw tariffs in place on some $360 billion in imports from China -- something many don’t see Trump being ready to do.


The people familiar with China’s position said the tariffs don’t all have to be removed immediately, but they must be part of the next stage. China also wants Trump to cancel a new wave of import taxes due to take effect Dec. 15 on American consumer favorites such as smartphones and toys as part of the phase one deal, the people said.


Beijing is open and willing to continue talks...


Tariff Pressure ...


‘Positive Direction’ ...


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