[Fri]: Some cancelations of pork sales by China and news of a significant jump in hog weights for the third week in a row were factors which contributed to a sharply lower trade early yesterday, The Hightower Report said… The week’s pork export sales were strong at 30,112 tonnes for 2019 delivery,” Allendale said. This was 38% over last year in the same week. Year to date sales of 1,557,869 tonnes are 43% over last year. However, the new slowdown in buying U.S. pork from China and rumors of possible trade frictions ahead with China are bearish forces… [Thurs]: National carcass base down 36 cents... Iowa-Minnesota carcass base down 68 cents… USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon rose 61 cents… Overnight news that China may be less likely to sign a long-term trade deal than initially expected was harmful to the lean hog market today, Stewart-Peterson said. However, those rumors subsided during the day, and traded back to slightly higher closes…  

 

Farm Commodity Newsletter/Iowa Farmer Today

 

Fri 11/1/2019 8:43 AM

 

Lean hogs - The Hightower Report said, the jump in weights and increased doubts that a longer-term China trade deal could be achieved under the Trump Administration are short-term negatives forces. “However, a turn up in pork produce prices could be a sign of a pick-up in export activity.”

 

Some cancelations of pork sales by China and news of a significant jump in hog weights for the third week in a row were factors which contributed to a sharply lower trade early yesterday, The Hightower Report said.

 

China import actions dominate prices

 

The week’s pork export sales were strong at 30,112 tonnes for 2019 delivery,” Allendale said. This was 38% over last year in the same week. Year to date sales of 1,557,869 tonnes are 43% over last year.

 

However, the new slowdown in buying U.S. pork from China and rumors of possible trade frictions ahead with China are bearish forces which sparked more selling early yesterday with February hogs down to the lowest level since Oct. 8, The Hightower Report said.

 

USDA reported weekly beef export sales of 15,737 tonnes for 2019 delivery were noted. “This was 38% under last year’s unusually large number of 25,311 tonnes in this specific week,” Allendale said.

 

Thu 10/31/2019 4:34 PM

 

In weighted average negotiated prices for barrows and gilts, USDA reported;

 

National carcass base down 36 cents to $49.07/cwt.

National live was down 94 cents to $39.80

Iowa-Minnesota carcass base down 68 cents to $48.27

 

USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon rose 61 cents at $76.05/cwt.

 

Hogs have tightened up in a range as volatility is not as present, Oliver Sloup of Blue Line Futures said. “If we close on the weaker end, I wouldn’t be surprised to see that gap get filled and tested from Sept. 11, and that doesn’t come until $61.50,” he said. “At that point, we like to be ready, willing and able to be long in this market going forward.”

 

The early selling in hogs pushed the market down to its Oct. 8 marks, but closed near the highs made today. At one point, the December contract was down nearly 200 points. Part of the pressure is news of a jump in hog weights for the third week in a row, The Hightower Report said.

 

Weakness in cattle may signal correction

 

Today’s “weaker day” in cattle may be healthy for the market, Oliver Sloup of Blue Line Futures said. “A potentially healthy correction is in store,” he said. He said weakness tomorrow to round out the week may put a damper on the trade to open the new month.

 

Overnight news that China may be less likely to sign a long-term trade deal than initially expected was harmful to the lean hog market today, Stewart-Peterson said. However, those rumors subsided during the day, and traded back to slightly higher closes.

 

Grains quiet on Halloween

 

Halloween trade was quiet in the grains, Ami L. Heesch of CHS Hedging said. Farmers are working as they can in the fields and producers are “mostly unwilling sellers” at the current price points, she said.

 

The next Supply and Demand report will release next Friday, November 8. “There are many unknowns with this year’s corn crop, which hopes are that there will be at least some clarity with the release of next week’s USDA data,” Heesch said.

 

Corn

 

Despite snow falling on parts of the Midwest, corn prices were weaker today as forecasts are showing better weather ahead, Ami L. Heesch of CHS Hedging said. Export sales fell in line with expectations, at 549,000 tonnes.

 

A lack of positive news is keeping prices from making much of an advance, Stewart-Peterson said. “Less-than-ideal weather with snow in parts of the Midwest is keeping harvest at a minimum and so is the dry-down time which farmers are telling us is taking longer than usual, and consequently, fieldwork is falling further behind.”

 

Soybeans

 

Soybean hit a support pocket today at the 200-day moving average. “As long as the bulls can defend this on a closing basis, they remain in control,” Oliver Sloup of Blue Line Futures said, saying the resistance point is at $9.40-$9.41.

 

Stewart-Peterson said they don’t anticipate a big push for farmer selling this harvest year, with crop yields expected to be lower than recent years and the constant delays. “Today’s technical hook reversal in beans might suggest that the market is growing somewhat leary of additional selling and buyers took advantage of this morning’s weaker values.”

 

Wheat

 

A strong U.S. dollar and competition from other world players is weighing on the market, Ami L. Heesch of CHS Hedging said. Export sales were “OK” at 494,000 tonnes, Heesch said, coming in at the higher end of estimates.

 

Kansas City may have more buying opportunities than Chicago wheat contracts, Oliver Sloup of Blue Line Futures said. “We are more pessimistic on Chicago, and if the bulls can’t reclaim ground above $5.15 ½, we could see a head and shoulders taking place,” he said.

 

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