[Fri]: The Hightower Report said, that if October placements were 15 to 20 % above last year, and November placements stay high, sellers could get active for April cattle… [Thurs]: Boxed beef cutout values this afternoon were sharply higher… Choice rose $2.13… Select went down 18 cents… In negotiated cash sales in Iowa/Minnesota, the USDA reported 1,682 head sold live at $110-113, with 119 head sold dressed at $173. There were no reported sales in Nebraska… Today’s “weaker day” in cattle may be healthy for the market, Oliver Sloup of Blue Line Futures said…
Farm Commodity Newsletter/Iowa Farmer Today
Fri 11/1/2019 8:43 AM
Cattle - October live cattle futures expired Thursday with a $1.70 loss, said Brugler Marketing. “The active December and February were down 62 to 92 cents. There was some net new selling interest, with preliminary open interest rising 5,178 contracts on a weaker price.”
In a longer view, The Hightower Report said, that if October placements were 15 to 20 % above last year, and November placements stay high, sellers could get active for April cattle.
Actual Slaughter reported steer weights fell by 1 lb. to 900. Heifer weights rose by 3 lbs. to 831. “Our focus is the year to year comparison. Compared with last year weights remained at up 0.5%,” Allendale said.
China import actions dominate prices
The week’s pork export sales were strong at 30,112 tonnes for 2019 delivery,” Allendale said. This was 38% over last year in the same week. Year to date sales of 1,557,869 tonnes are 43% over last year.
However, the new slowdown in buying U.S. pork from China and rumors of possible trade frictions ahead with China are bearish forces which sparked more selling early yesterday with February hogs down to the lowest level since Oct. 8, The Hightower Report said.
USDA reported weekly beef export sales of 15,737 tonnes for 2019 delivery were noted. “This was 38% under last year’s unusually large number of 25,311 tonnes in this specific week,” Allendale said.
Thu 10/31/2019 4:34 PM
Boxed beef cutout values this afternoon were sharply higher on Choice and steady on Select on moderate to good demand and moderate offerings, USDA said.
Choice rose $2.13 to $232.18/cwt.
Select went down 18 cents to $206.49.
In negotiated cash sales in Iowa/Minnesota, the USDA reported 1,682 head sold live at $110-113, with 119 head sold dressed at $173. There were no reported sales in Nebraska.
“While it is not clear yet if today’s selloff is the start of a correction, there was not much technical damage done,” Stewart-Peterson said. “Today’s session was an inside day, and did not constitute a bearish key reversal or bearish hook reversal.”
The market was quick to give back all of yesterday’s gains, The Hightower Report said. “The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication,” they said. There are ideas that cattle weights are on the rise, which would spark higher production in November.
Weakness in cattle may signal correction
Today’s “weaker day” in cattle may be healthy for the market, Oliver Sloup of Blue Line Futures said. “A potentially healthy correction is in store,” he said. He said weakness tomorrow to round out the week may put a damper on the trade to open the new month.
Overnight news that China may be less likely to sign a long-term trade deal than initially expected was harmful to the lean hog market today, Stewart-Peterson said. However, those rumors subsided during the day, and traded back to slightly higher closes.
Grains quiet on Halloween
Halloween trade was quiet in the grains, Ami L. Heesch of CHS Hedging said. Farmers are working as they can in the fields and producers are “mostly unwilling sellers” at the current price points, she said.
The next Supply and Demand report will release next Friday, November 8. “There are many unknowns with this year’s corn crop, which hopes are that there will be at least some clarity with the release of next week’s USDA data,” Heesch said.
Despite snow falling on parts of the Midwest, corn prices were weaker today as forecasts are showing better weather ahead, Ami L. Heesch of CHS Hedging said. Export sales fell in line with expectations, at 549,000 tonnes.
A lack of positive news is keeping prices from making much of an advance, Stewart-Peterson said. “Less-than-ideal weather with snow in parts of the Midwest is keeping harvest at a minimum and so is the dry-down time which farmers are telling us is taking longer than usual, and consequently, fieldwork is falling further behind.”
Soybean hit a support pocket today at the 200-day moving average. “As long as the bulls can defend this on a closing basis, they remain in control,” Oliver Sloup of Blue Line Futures said, saying the resistance point is at $9.40-$9.41.
Stewart-Peterson said they don’t anticipate a big push for farmer selling this harvest year, with crop yields expected to be lower than recent years and the constant delays. “Today’s technical hook reversal in beans might suggest that the market is growing somewhat leary of additional selling and buyers took advantage of this morning’s weaker values.”
A strong U.S. dollar and competition from other world players is weighing on the market, Ami L. Heesch of CHS Hedging said. Export sales were “OK” at 494,000 tonnes, Heesch said, coming in at the higher end of estimates.
Kansas City may have more buying opportunities than Chicago wheat contracts, Oliver Sloup of Blue Line Futures said. “We are more pessimistic on Chicago, and if the bulls can’t reclaim ground above $5.15 ½, we could see a head and shoulders taking place,” he said.