[Weds]: Lean hog futures posted a triple-digit bounce on Turnaround Tuesday, with Dec up $3.15… [Tues]: National carcass base up $2.28… Iowa-Minnesota carcass base up $2.39… USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon rose 30 cents… The spot pig price in China continues to shoot up, umping up 12.3% today, and now are up 139.2% year to date, The Hightower report said. Production in China is 40-50% down from last year, with the Asian nation opening up its reserves… “While the stock market senses slow progress in the trade negotiations with China, surging pig prices in China show a clear need and the jump in pork product prices in a period of record weekly production totals suggests that China may already be an active buyer of U.S. pork”…
Farm Commodity Newsletter/Iowa Farmer Today
Wed 10/9/2019 8:35 AM
Lean hogs - Pork cut-out values were down .30, Allendale reported.
Lean hog futures posted a triple-digit bounce on Turnaround Tuesday, with Dec up $3.15. “We will revert back to the usual $3 limits today,” Brugler Marketing & Management reported. The CME Lean Hog Index was down a penny to $59.22 on Oct 4. FI hog slaughter for this week through Tuesday was estimated at 973,000 head by the USDA. That is down 6,000 head from last week as Monday’s kill was revised 5,000 head lower but is still 48,000 head above last year.
Cattle prices holding steady
Packers were looking around for any cattle available at steady prices and the pickings were limited to a few head at $107-108, according to The Cattle Report. With box prices turning higher, most cattle owners will stick to higher asking prices of $110. The carcass weights fell last week reminding many that fed supplies are not backing up and as each week passes and we near the re-opening of the Tyson plant, the light late spring placements may turn the leverage and cattle prices might put on a strong rally into year end. Fast food companies are reporting excellent traffic but fine dining or the high end restaurants and reporting a slow down. It is probably not unusual for early fall to feature a slow down before holiday traffic resumes.
With the overbought condition of the market, it may not take much in the way of bearish news to spark some selling, The Hightower Report said.
Tue 10/8/2019 4:47 PM
In weighted average negotiated prices for barrows and gilts, USDA reported;
National carcass base up $2.28 to $52.01/cwt.
National live was up 66 cents, to $39.99
Iowa-Minnesota carcass base up $2.39 to $52.45
USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon rose 30 cents at $77.45/cwt.
The spot pig price in China continues to shoot up, umping up 12.3% today, and now are up 139.2% year to date, The Hightower report said. Production in China is 40-50% down from last year, with the Asian nation opening up its reserves.
Scott Shellady said the deferred months in the hog market has hit a bit of a technical wall. “I wouldn’t get comfortable here if I was long,” he said, adding that producers are looking to protect their downside.
Hogs rebound on expanded limits
Today’s expanded limits saw hogs rebound from limit-down trading yesterday. “While the stock market senses slow progress in the trade negotiations with China, surging pig prices in China show a clear need and the jump in pork product prices in a period of record weekly production totals suggests that China may already be an active buyer of U.S. pork,” The Hightower Report said.
Cattle’s technically overbought condition is limiting buying, leading to a slight decrease in live cattle futures today, The Hightower Report said, despite cash markets surging and providing support.
Freeze bringing higher trade
The forecasted freeze this weekend in parts of the Corn Belt is helping corn trade higher, but soybeans are dealing with trade issues, leading to mixed markets today, Ami L. Heesch of CHS Hedging said.
Kylee Phillips of The Andersons said everyone is looking at the reports as well, as it was a “positive day today.” Phillips said the slow progression through harvest may help the markets, but could hurt the crop.
Crop worries are causing higher prices in corn today, Ami L. Heesch of CHS Hedging said. However, the markets are also preparing for Thursday’s crop production and Supply and Demand reports, which is forcing traders to even up on their positions in anticipation.
In those reports, Steve Freed of ADM Investor Services said there are ideas out that that the crop may be reduced which could help rally prices. Meanwhile corn shipments are at a six-year low, he said, “starting off the new marketing year on an even worse note.”
“The market seems to be in a wait and see mode ahead of the US/Chinese trade talks later this week,” Ami L. Heesch of CHS Hedging said.
A move near $9.40 is possible for soybeans as weather and short-covering might help the market rally, however, Stewart-Peterson said there are some factors working against it. “Keeping prices in check will be harvest pressure as a generally dryer forecast after this storm system and the likelihood of increased farmers’ selling may limit upside potential,” Stewart-Peterson said.
Technical selling didn’t hurt the Chicago and Kansas City markets today. Meanwhile, there are concerns about the quality of the wheat coming in, as supplies tighten, Ami L. Heesch of CHS Hedging said.
The wheat market is not seeing much fundamental support, despite the higher trade today in Chicago. “We expect that Thursday’s Supply and Demand report will again confirm world inventories are adequate, but could show a tightening of stocks slightly,” Stewart-Peterson said.