[Tues]: Hogs continue to confound most observers as the world situation is of developing shortages due to African swine fever,
but U.S. supplies remain record high, said Jody Lawrence of Strategic Trading Advisors… A total of 93.352 million pounds of pork was shipped to China during August, which was 18.4% of the total shipments, according to Dean Cluck… [Mon]: National carcass base up 53 cents… Iowa-Minnesota carcass base up 34 cents… USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon rose $2.58… “The extremely heavy short term supply is too much for the markets to cope with right now, even despite expectations for surging exports down the road,” Stewart-Peterson said…
Farm Commodity Newsletter/Iowa Farmer Today
Tue 10/8/2019 8:35 AM
Lean hogs - Hogs continue to confound most observers as the world situation is of developing shortages due to African swine fever,
but U.S. supplies remain record high, said Jody Lawrence of Strategic Trading Advisors.
USDA updated its August export sales at 509 million pounds (16% over last year), Allendale said. In contrast, last week’s slaughter and pork production was seen at the highest numbers of the year (slaughter at 5.8% over last year and production at 6.4% over last year).
Hogs trade on expanded limits
A total of 93.352 million pounds of pork was shipped to China during August, which was 18.4% of the total shipments, according to Dean Cluck.
Lean hogs will have expanded trading limits of $4.50 today, said Michaela White of CHS Hedging.
There was a big improvement in the cash cattle market last week, Joe Vaclavik of Standard Grain said. “We’re back to a normal-type setup,” he said.
Mon 10/7/2019 4:40 PM
In weighted average negotiated prices for barrows and gilts, USDA reported;
National carcass base up 53 cents to $49.68/cwt.
National live was up 16 cents to $39.84
Iowa-Minnesota carcass base up 34 cents to $50.06
USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon rose $2.58to $77.75/cwt.
“Some indications that trade talks may not proceed as favorable as believed late last week helped to spark selling pressure today,” The Hightower Report said.
“The extremely heavy short term supply is too much for the markets to cope with right now, even despite expectations for surging exports down the road,” Stewart-Peterson said.
Hogs tumble on trade fears
Lean hog selling was active early today as the December contract closed at limit down levels for multiple contracts, The Hightower Report said.
Cash cattle continues to support the upcoming contracts, as December lives pushed up to their highest level since August 9 today, and closed nearly 40 cents higher.
Harvest well behind average
Mixed trade was the news today, as traders deal with uncertainty regarding trade, the upcoming Supply and Demand report and fears of a freeze in the Corn Belt forecast for the upcoming weekend, CHS Hedging’s Ami L. Heesch said.
This afternoon’s crop progress report showed 15% of the corn has been harvested as of Oct. 6, below the five-year average of 27%. Corn’s condition is rated at 56% Good/Excellent.
Soybeans are at 14% harvested (5-year average is 34%), with a rated condition of 53% Good/Excellent.
The frost concerns helped corn move higher today, as snow is expected across the Dakotas and Minnesota this week,” Ami L. Heesch of CHS Hedging said. “Position evening was noted as market participants ready themselves Thursday’s USDA crop production and S&D report.”
Keeping an eye on the weather for corn, Mike Zuzulo of Global Commodity Analytics said tomorrow is a “very crucial model-run day” as traders will look for confirmation for the weekend’s forecasts.
There are concerns a trade deal with China may not be reached this week, ADM Investor Services said. “In a week, without a deal U.S. could impose an additional 5% tariff on $250 billion of China goods that currently have a 25% tariff,” they said.
A two percentage point drop in soybean conditions was notable, John Payne of Daniel’s Trading said. “Keep that in your mind as you try to bet on yields going forward,” he said.
Weather is also dealing a blow to wheat producers, which is creating some tightening of supplies. “There is a fair amount of wheat left to harvest in the Canadian Prairies and the unharvested wheat in North Dakota and Montana is expected to be poor quality and may not ever get harvested,” Ami L. Heesch of CHS Hedging said.
Today’s run up for Chicago wheat futures was linked “in part due to good demand for storage and lower crop supplies,” ADM Investor Services said. Minnesota wheat has a big premium over Chicago and Kansas City due to weather concerns.