Best Ever Period of North American Hog Sector Profitability Forecast Dependent on ASF Status


Joseph Kerns - Kerns and Associates

Farmscape for October 3, 2019


An economist with Kerns and Associates says, if the North American hog sector can remain free of African Swine Fever, it can expect the best run of profitability ever.


Hog Sector Economics, Key Factors to Consider will be among the topics discussed as part of Saskatchewan Pork Industry Symposium 2019 set for November 12th and 13th in Saskatoon.


Joe Kerns, the President of Kerns and Associates, says with hog numbers expanding the real driver of profitability right now is on the revenue side, how much am I being paid?


Clip-Joseph Kerns-Kerns and Associates:


We've seen a nice little appreciation in the hog market recently in front of the Chinese talks that has offered very handsome profits for 2020 and we've been here a couple of times before.


We had the run up in the spring of this year that was somewhat ill-fated then again in the summer with the July time frame that offered some great profits and here we are again.


As we enter the first portion of October with traditionally more animals coming into the market place, we're setting some new contract highs for the 2020 contracts.


It makes for a good problem for the pork producer.


Do I say yes to some very handsome profits in 2020 or do I hold off under the anticipation that the devastation of ASF, in China specifically, is going to mandate exports from countries that remain clear of ASF and offer even better profits right now?


It's a very interesting time for a pork producer.