[Thurs] China’s hog herd has fallen by half in the first eight months of 2019, according to Allendale… [Weds]: National carcass base was 66 cents higher… Iowa-Minnesota carcass base was up $1.52… USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon were down $1.17… There were multiple factors working against hog markets. “Carryover selling pressure from the bearish Hogs and Pigs report last week and weakness in the US stock market helped to pressure as traders are having a rough time rationalizing the stiff premium to the cash market,” the Hightower Report said. The lack of fresh supportive news on trade with China also pressured hog markets. “There is no news out of China, no more information coming,” Virginia McGathey, with McGathey Commodities, said…

 

Farm Commodity Newsletter/Iowa Farmer Today

 

Thu 10/3/2019 9:19 AM

 

Lean hogs - December hogs closed lower yesterday but are far above the lows and there is a large premium to the cash market for December hogs, according to The Hightower Report.

 

The Iowa/Southern Minnesota hog weight report showed market hog weights last week in that region at 281.9 lbs., a figure 1.4 lbs. over last year, according to Allendale.

 

Futures Markets Vulnerable to a Set-Back

 

Both the cattle and hog markets are strong but are appear technically overbought and vulnerable to a set-back, according to The Hightower Report.

 

China’s hog herd has fallen by half in the first eight months of 2019, according to Allendale.

 

Wed 10/2/2019 4:42 PM

 

In weighted average negotiated prices for barrows and gilts, USDA reported;

 

•           National carcass base was 66 cents higher to $50.13/cwt.

•           National live was 2 cents lower to $39.06

•           Iowa-Minnesota carcass base was up $1.52 to $51.25

 

USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon were down $1.17 to $74.12/cwt.

 

There were multiple factors working against hog markets. “Carryover selling pressure from the bearish Hogs and Pigs report last week and weakness in the US stock market helped to pressure as traders are having a rough time rationalizing the stiff premium to the cash market,” the Hightower Report said.

 

The lack of fresh supportive news on trade with China also pressured hog markets. “There is no news out of China, no more information coming,” Virginia McGathey, with McGathey Commodities, said. “Hopes for additional purchases have kind of dried up right now… The uncertainty is what brings on volatility.”

 

Cattle bounces back higher

 

“December cattle closed moderately higher on the day with an outside-day session and a move to the highest level since Aug. 9,” the Hightower Report said. “The market traded lower and under yesterday's lows early today, but managed to hold minor support and traded moderately higher on the day into the mid-session. The bounce is impressive given the 500 point drop in the Dow.”

 

The hog market was lower, but avoided bottoming out. The weakness in the stock market and the Hogs and Pigs report provided pressure. “December hogs closed lower on the day but up about 150 points from the lows,” the Hightower Report said. “The market traded sharply lower on the day early but managed to hold above Monday's lows.”

 

Grains slide back after recent gains

 

“Weakness was seen throughout the grain, energy, currency and equity markets today,” Ami Heesch, with CHS Hedging, said. “Technical selling was noted in most of the grain markets, despite the friendly stocks report on Monday. Weather looks tot improve for much of the US Midwest, once we get through this weekend’s rain events.”

 

A number of factors were weighing on soybean prices. “A normal Brazil 30 day weather outlook may be weighing on soybean prices,” Steve Freed, with ADM Investor Services, said. “No new word on US and China trade talks could also be weighing on prices. US stock market continues to slide lower. Some of this is follow through after weak US manufacturing data.”

 

Corn

 

Harvest weather and progress could have an impact on corn prices during the fall. “Some premium had been put into corn prices due to a wet October weather outlook,” Steve Freed, with ADM Investor Services, said. “This drier trend could help speed up harvest. Harvest pressure could send prices even lower.”

 

“Corn prices trade lower on technical selling with losses limited from the smaller than expected grains stocks number that the USDA released on Monday,” Ami Heesch, with CHS Hedging, said. “The December contract pushed high enough to fill the August gap from $3.88-$3.92 ¾ but failed to rocket its way to $4 or higher, which allowed prices to settle back a bit.”

 

Soybeans

 

“Soybeans prices traded lower on a bout of profit taking after recent strength,” Ami Heesch, with CHS Hedging, said. “Additional pressure came from a round of technical selling after the November contract failed to trade above yesterday’s high of $9.20. support in the Nov 19 contract sits near its 200-Day moving average of $9.11.”

 

The U.S. dollar and soybean crop estimates also helped push soybean markets lower. “The fact the US Dollar is near recent highs could also be weighing on commodity and grain prices,” Steve Freed, with ADM Investor Services, said. “One private group estimate of the US 2019 soybean crop near 3,648 vs USDA 3,633 may also be weighing on prices.”

 

Wheat

 

“Soybeans prices traded lower on a bout of profit taking after recent strength,” Ami Heesch, with CHS Hedging, said. “Additional pressure came from a round of technical selling after the November contract failed to trade above yesterday’s high of $9.20. support in the Nov 19 contract sits near its 200-Day moving average of $9.11.”

 

The U.S. dollar and soybean crop estimates also helped push soybean markets lower. “The fact the US Dollar is near recent highs could also be weighing on commodity and grain prices,” Steve Freed, with ADM Investor Services, said. “One private group estimate of the US 2019 soybean crop near 3,648 vs USDA 3,633 may also be weighing on prices.”

 

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