In this file:
· U.S. Poised for Pork Exports as ASF Impacts Vietnam and Philippines
· Pork Trade Expands, Market Volatility Climbs
· China’s hog herd may drop by 55% due to fatal swine fever, says Rabobank
U.S. Poised for Pork Exports as ASF Impacts Vietnam and Philippines
Brittany Bowman, FarmJournal's Pork
October 1, 2019
U.S. pork suppliers recently met with local Vietnamese and Filipino further processing companies, building relationships as the U.S. prepares to export pork products to countries impacted by African swine fever (ASF).
While the Philippines is just beginning to understand the full impact of ASF recently found in the country, Vietnam has already experienced widespread destruction amongst its hog industry, says Travis Arp, senior director of technical services and market access for the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF).
“Companies who might traditionally use many domestic pork products for their further processed finished products are now looking to import raw materials,” says Arp while describing his travels with the U.S. pork suppliers. . “The U.S. is very well positioned to be a good, consistent supplier for their businesses.”
Meanwhile, recent arrival of ASF to the Philippines has concerned domestic Filipino hog processing companies...
Pork Trade Expands, Market Volatility Climbs
Jennifer Shike, FarmJournal's Pork
October 2, 2019
From feed costs and capacity disruptions, to trade flows and political disruptions, the already volatile U.S. animal protein markets continued to grow more volatile in the third quarter, says the latest report from the CoBank Knowledge Exchange division.
The ripple effect of African swine fever (ASF) on global pork supplies is hitting the U.S. Not only have prices been on a rollercoaster ride this year, but trade volume is finally expanding. Expanding trade volume, along with signing important trade agreements this summer with Japan and Mexico, will also aid in improving sluggish trade flows so far this year, the report said.
Analysts expect the U.S. animal protein supply growth to slow in 2019, but the cool, wet spring weather might mean the growth in 2019 will actually match last year’s 2.5% growth.
“As cool weather helped livestock convert feed into mass more easily, livestock weights across the sector rose, driving increased protein supplies through the summer. Live weights for hogs and chickens this summer have climbed to all-time highs seasonally, increasing supply by 1% to 1.5%,” the report said.
Spring conditions added 1.8% and 1.1% during June and July, respectively, to hog live weights. Increased weights coupled with reduced porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome have increased pork supplies more than 4% through July over last year. CoBank said these factors are driving their new forecast for U.S. pork production growth to 4% in 2019, up from their previous forecast of 3%.
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China’s hog herd may drop by 55% due to fatal swine fever, says Rabobank
· Rabobank said in a report it expects China’s pork production to fall by 10% to 15% in 2020, on top of a 25% drop in 2019.
· The country’s pig herd fell by half in the first eight months of 2019, and will likely shrink by 55% by year end, it said.
· China’s total consumption of animal feed such as soy will drop by 17% in 2019 due to the decline in hogs, according to Rabobank.
via CNBC - Oct 2 2019
China’s hog herd fell by half in the first eight months of 2019 due to a devastating outbreak of African swine fever and will likely shrink by 55% by the end of the year, analysts at Rabobank said on Wednesday.
The pace of herd losses will likely slow in the coming months due to reduced farm numbers and Chinese government measures to control the pig disease in the world’s largest pork consumer, according to a report by Rabobank. However, the bank said relatively unstable market conditions will likely persist for the next three to five years.
Though not harmful to humans, African swine fever is deadly to hogs, with no vaccine available. It surfaced for the first time in Asia more than a year ago, in China, and has now spread to over 50 countries, according to the World Organization of Animal Health — including those that account for 75% of global pork production.
Rabobank said in the report it expects China’s pork production to fall by 10% to 15% in 2020, on top of a 25% drop in 2019.
China’s total consumption of animal feed such as soy will drop by 17% in 2019 due to the decline in hogs, according to Rabobank. But feed consumption will rebound by 8% in 2020 as hog herds are rebuilt and farmers produce other proteins like chicken, the bank said...
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