[Weds]: A “short-term peak” may be in place for the cattle market, according to the Hightower Report. “Even if the trend has turned up, the market may be in need of a correction,” they said… [Tues]: Boxed beef cutout values this afternoon were higher… Choice was up $1.03… Select was down $1.06… In negotiated cash sales in Nebraska, there was no reportable trade, the USDA said. In Iowa-Minnesota, there no reported live sales, and 80 head sold dressed for $166… Boxed beef cut-out values jumped, but that is coming off low prices. “The market remains in a short-term overbought condition,” the Hightower Report said…
Farm Commodity Newsletter/Iowa Farmer Today
Wed 10/2/2019 8:34 AM
Cattle - The Hightower Report said to look for December resistance in live cattle at $110.32 today, and support markets to come in around $108.07 and $107.25. With the overbought condition in the short term, “the market looks vulnerable for a set back,” they said.
The feeder market found some selling yesterday, as those prices are “still sharply overbought,” Stewart-Peterson said. While the November contract was able to hold on to support at the 10-day moving average, “momentum is turning lower, and prices are still overbought.”
Cattle may be at short-term peak
In an effort to curb African Swine Fever, South Korea said they are temporarily suspending civilian tours of the border with North Korea, Allendale said. They have suspicions some of their cases of the disease came from North Korea.
A “short-term peak” may be in place for the cattle market, according to the Hightower Report. “Even if the trend has turned up, the market may be in need of a correction,” they said.
Tue 10/1/2019 4:29 PM
Boxed beef cutout values this afternoon were higher on Choice and lower on Select on moderate to good demand and offerings, the USDA said.
Choice was up $1.03 to $213.47/cwt.
Select was down $1.06 to $186.05.
In negotiated cash sales in Nebraska, there was no reportable trade, the USDA said. In Iowa-Minnesota, there no reported live sales, and 80 head sold dressed for $166.
Cattle market analysts were watching weather reports, and what that could mean for weight gain. “Rainy weather in the Plains for the next two weeks should keep weight gain in check, consistent with the past few weeks,” Stewart-Peterson said.
Boxed beef cut-out values jumped, but that is coming off low prices. “The market remains in a short-term overbought condition,” the Hightower Report said. “Boxed-beef cut-out values at mid-session jumped but the bounce came from the lowest beef price since July 26. Mid-day values were at $214.00, up $1.56 on the day.”
Hogs drop on premium to cash
“The (hog) market closed sharply lower on the day and even hit limit down late in the day before closing sharply lower on the day,” the Hightower Report said. “The big premium to the cash market and ideas that the Hogs and Pigs report was bearish enough from a supply perspective to allow for the cash/futures relationship to narrow helped to pressure.”
Cattle were down on overbought conditions and the technical picture. “December cattle experienced an outside-day down from an overbought condition and received a sell signal crossover for slow stochastics,” the Hightower Report said. “February cattle closed moderately lower on the day after first seeing a rally up to the highest level since Aug. 5.”
Prices continue rise
“The ag markets were mostly higher today on leftover fuel from USDA’s stocks data released yesterday,” Ami Heesch, with CHS Hedging, said. “Weather continues to be a concern most everywhere with the US remaining captive of cool wet conditions and South America strapped with mostly dry weather with chances for moisture in the southern areas.”
“Continued rain in the forecast for most of the Midwest the next three days would suggest limited or no harvest pressure during that time,” Stewart-Peterson said. “Additionally, with humid and warm conditions, we hear from producers suggesting the crop is not maturing at a quick pace.”
Corn markets were higher on concerns about the crop. “Corn prices continued their move to higher levels on crop concerns and left over fuel from yesterday,” Ami Heesch, with CHS Hedging, said. “Crop development should continue slowly with the fall season among us and lack of measurable heat units.”
“US farmers have not yet been aggressive sellers of their 2018 inventory, 2019 crop that is in the ground or the carry in futures to the 2020 crop,” Steve Freed, with ADM Investor Services, said. “Most do not want to sell corn until they get into the field and see what their 2019 crop yield is. Some feel that the US 2019 crop could be closer to 13,600 mln bu vs USDA 13,799.”
Soybeans drew support from a variety of sources. “Soybean prices traded higher again on hopes for more Chines soybean business this week and unfavorable weather conditions for resuming harvest activity,” Ami Heesch, with CHS Hedging, said. “Prices drew additional support from yesterday’s USDA stocks data.”
The soybean crop continues to run behind schedule. “Yesterday’s Crop Progress report again confirmed the crop is well behind schedule with 55% dropping leaves versus a 5-year average of 76%,” Stewart-Peterson said. “Harvest at 7% trails the 5-year average of 20%, and with more wet weather on tap, this number will likely continue to fall behind.”
“The wheat market was mixed with Mpls taking second fiddle to the strength in the row crops,” Ami Heesch, with CHS Hedging, said. “KC saw weakness on planting progress and Chicago garnered support from the corn market… The spring wheat harvest may take a while to get going again after the weekend rain and snow events have saturated fields.”
World wheat prices did not see a similar rally. “World wheat prices also did not follow US futures rally which suggest US export prices are a premium to other origins,” Steve Freed, with ADM Investor Services, said.