In this file:†

 

         Fed Cattle Recap | Cash market for fed cattle continues post-fire recovery

Cash trades for fed cattle were mostly $2-$5 higher with much lower numbers of 15-30 day delivery cash sales, meaning nearly all cash trades were available for immediate delivery.

 

         Pressure ahead for fed-cattle markets

The Markets with Deb McMillin, from the September 30, 2019 issue of Canadian Cattlemen

 

 

Fed Cattle Recap | Cash market for fed cattle continues post-fire recovery

Cash trades for fed cattle were mostly $2-$5 higher with much lower numbers of 15-30 day delivery cash sales, meaning nearly all cash trades were available for immediate delivery.

 

Ed Czerwien, BEEF Magazine†

Oct 01, 2019

 

Ed is taking a break this week, so while his audio report is available, letís turn to Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing economist at Oklahoma State University, for a condensed look at the aftermath of the Tyson beef plant fire in Holcomb, Kan.:

 

The fire on August 8, 2019 at the Tyson Finney County, Kan., packing plant caused huge disruptions in markets like a big rock thrown into a pond. With seven weeks passed since then, the impacts and resulting ripple effects are clearer now and are fading as expected.

 

Despite the loss of roughly 5% of steer and heifer slaughter capacity, the packing industry has done a remarkable job of maintaining yearling slaughter while total industry capacity is pushed very near to the limit. In the week after the fire, Monday-Friday yearling slaughter was down 4.6% (a decrease of 22,158 head) but a large Saturday kill resulted in a weekly total slaughter down just 1,002 head from the pre-fire week, a decrease of 0.6%.

 

In the second week after the fire, weekday slaughter was down 3.8% (18,345 head decrease), but a large Saturday kill brought the weekly total up for an increase of 2,423 head compared to the week prior to the fire. In week 3 after the fire, weekday steer and heifer slaughter was down 11,511 head, 2.4% lower, compared to the pre-fire total; but once again a large Saturday total made the weekly yearling slaughter total only 175 head less than the week prior to the fire.

 

In total, steer and heifer slaughter in the four weeks after the fire was 2,016,178 head, an increase year over year of 12,562 head (up 0.6%). This was accomplished as a result of considerable logistical contortions and extra cost, including big Saturday kills and rerouting cattle to other plants farther away.

 

It is clear that no significant backup of finished cattle occurred despite the squeeze on packing capacity after the fire. Any significant backlog of more than 2 million head of slaughter-ready cattle would have pushed carcass weights up. However, in the four weeks after the fire, both steer and heifer carcass weights were down...

 

more, including audio [3:04 min.]†

https://www.beefmagazine.com/market-reports/fed-cattle-recap-cash-market-fed-cattle-continues-post-fire-recovery

 

 

Pressure ahead for fed-cattle markets

The Markets with Deb McMillin, from the September 30, 2019 issue of Canadian Cattlemen

 

By Debbie McMillin, Contributor, Canadian Cattlemen

October 1, 2019

 

Fed cattle

 

Seasonal pressure coupled with leverage loss partly due to the U.S. packing plant fire resulted in smaller weekly kill capacity. Locally, demand is softer following the September long weekend, which is generally the case. In addition, front-end supply is building and packer lift times have lengthened. Over the past five weeks, the fed steer average has dropped $6.57/cwt to a current $140.07/cwt, which is also $2.46/cwt lower than the same week last year.

 

The cash-to-cash basis narrowed in recent weeks as the reduced weekly kill capacity resulting from the Tyson packing plant fire affected the U.S. market more severely than we saw locally. Currently, at a premium to the U.S. market, the basis the first week of September was +5.15/cwt.

 

Packer margins remain profitable and all three large western Canadian packing plants have been working six days per week. Weekly slaughter numbers were high at the end of August with weekly fed kills the highest seen since the summer of 2010. Year-to-date slaughter is higher for both fed steers and heifers. To the end of August 2019, fed steer kill totaled 1,128,684 head, six per cent higher than last year. Heifer slaughter totaled 633,777, also six per cent higher than a year ago. The total number of fed cattle marketings also continues to be higher than a year ago. As the higher domestic kill is just one part of the equation, fed exports (including cows) are 25 per cent higher, with a total for the year-to-date at 296,803 head.

 

Debís outlook for fed cattle: Itís not uncommon for annual fed steer lows to be realized in September. Expect to see pressure on the fed market as front-end supplies of market-ready cattle increase in the near term. Packers will gain leverage while longer-fed, heavier cattle move through the system. In addition, cut-out value decline over the past couple of weeks will likely cut into packer margins and lead to lower bids. Additional packer kill days have helped to manage front-end supply so far. One hopes beef continues to move through the system and feedlots stay current in the coming weeks. Looking further out, beef demand will pick up and supplies tighten moving into the fourth quarter. Holiday demand should lead to a seasonal increase in the cash market.

 

Feeder cattle ...

 

Debís outlook for feeder cattle ...

 

Non-fed cattle ...

 

Debís outlook for non-fed cattle ...

 

more, including links

https://www.canadiancattlemen.ca/2019/10/01/pressure-ahead-for-fed-cattle-markets/