[Thurs]: The short-term cash fundamental news shows weak pork product prices which clashes with what looks to be a potential surge in exports in the months ahead says The Hightower Report. Since cash and futures are moving in opposite directions, “it will be important to see a turn up in pork product prices soon,” The Report said… [Weds]: National carcass base down 29 cents… Iowa-Minnesota carcass base down 39 cents… USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon fell 10 cents… There is heavy hog production in the pipeline at the moment, Virginia McGathey of McGathey Commodities said. She said it is a little surprising to see the market not react as much to African Swine Fever news. “I really expected the market would rally a lot more or add to the uptrend,” she said… South Korea reported its second case of African Swine fever, as more hogs are expected to be culled. “The government raised its warning to the highest level and put a 48 hour lockdown on all farm across the country,” ADM Investor Services said… 

 

Farm Commodity Newsletter/Iowa Farmer Today

 

Thu 9/19/2019 9:05 AM

 

Lean hogs - Allendale says the USDA report coming on Friday at 2 p.m. is expected to show Cold Storage at 624 million lb. total pork stock level for the end of August.

 

The short-term cash fundamental news shows weak pork product prices which clashes with what looks to be a potential surge in exports in the months ahead says The Hightower Report. Since cash and futures are moving in opposite directions, “it will be important to see a turn up in pork product prices soon,” The Report said.

 

China turning to Argentina for pork

 

Reuters reported that China's customs office said on Thursday it granted export licences to some Argentine meat-processing plants, as the Asian country looks to plug a supply gap after an African swine fever outbreak decimated China's pig herds.

 

With trade negotiations restarting this week and a major need from China for imports, The Hightower Report sees “exports picking up steam” and pork prices on the rise.”

 

Back in July, Tim Horton's restaurants said they would offer Beyond Meat (alt-meat) products in its breakfast lineup in 4,000 restaurants in Canada and the U.S. Yesterday afternoon, the chain noted this promotion had ended at all locations except in Ontario and British Columbia, Allendale says. “It remains to be seen if the promotion will return.”

 

Wed 9/18/2019 4:35 PM

 

In weighted average negotiated prices for barrows and gilts, USDA reported;

 

National carcass base down 29 cents to $44.80/cwt.

National live was down 44 cents, to $36.38

Iowa-Minnesota carcass base down 39 cents to $45.01

 

USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon fell 10 cents at $68.11/cwt.

 

Lean hogs is trading higher on ideas that December is holding a “very large premium to the cash market,” which may have sparked some selling. The October contract finished 70 cents off its highs.

 

There is heavy hog production in the pipeline at the moment, Virginia McGathey of McGathey Commodities said. She said it is a little surprising to see the market not react as much to African Swine Fever news. “I really expected the market would rally a lot more or add to the uptrend,” she said.

 

More ASF in South Korea

 

South Korea reported its second case of African Swine fever, as more hogs are expected to be culled. “The government raised its warning to the highest level and put a 48 hour lockdown on all farm across the country,” ADM Investor Services said.

 

Cattle trade is following much of the same thoughts as yesterday: producers are current with marketings and august placements may be lower, The Hightower Report said. The led to a slightly higher day in the cattle market.

 

Fed cuts interest rates

 

As expected this morning, the Fed cut interest rates 25 basis points after global economic concerns, Ami L. Heesch of CHS Hedging said. One more cut is expected by the end of 2019.

 

Greg Johnson of The Andersons said there is no sign of frost through the first week of October according to the latest forecasts, adding pressure to some of the trade today.

 

Corn

 

Borrowed strength from the wheat market and short covering helped the corn market today, but Ami L. Heesch of CHS Hedging said gains were limited due to the non-threatening weather across the Midwest. “This year’s crop might just make it to maturity if the big, hard freeze stays away for a while longer,” she said.

 

Greg Johnson of The Andersons said slow economic activity globally, with a strong U.S. dollar and trade wars “all contributes to a lack of demand for U.S. ag products,” which offsets low yield reports. “The market feels comfortable with lower yield estimates we are starting to hear,” he said.

 

Soybeans

 

The weather was a factor in the soybean trade today, Ami L. Heesch of CHS Hedging said. There is also “uncertainty about whether the U.S. will see future soybean purchases from China,” she said.

 

Meanwhile, meal is continuing to be a “drag on the complex” after the South Korea African Swine fever news, ADM Investor Services said.

 

Wheat

 

The wheat trade was supported by “strong calendar spreads as well as a flurry of export business,” ADM Investor Services said.

 

Wheat is seeing an increase in demand, Ami L. Heesch of CHS Hedging said. “Prices saw additional strength from technical buying and a bout of short covering,” she said. “Spring wheat harvest began again this week, with reports of disappointing quality.”

 

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