[Weds]: The Hightower Report said a more positive tone for the upcoming cash market is a short-term supportive force. “Fears that cattle would back up in the country due to a major slaughterhouse fire in August have failed to materialize,” they said… [Tues]: Boxed beef cutout values this afternoon were lower to sharply lower… Choice fell 85 cents… Select went down $2.66… In negotiated cash sales in Iowa-Minnesota, the USDA reported 11 head sold dressed at $160, with 40 head sold live at $102. In Nebraska, 451 head were sold dressed at $160. "Hopes that the cash market will firm up in the weeks just ahead helped to suport," The Hightower Report said…
Farm Commodity Newsletter/Iowa Farmer Today
Wed 9/18/2019 8:34 AM
Cattle - The Hightower Report said a more positive tone for the upcoming cash market is a short-term supportive force. “Fears that cattle would back up in the country due to a major slaughterhouse fire in August have failed to materialize,” they said.
“Producers are current with marketings and packer margins remain strong,” The Hightower Report said. They expect close-in support for the December cattle contract is at $104.60, with $106.60 and $108.52 as the next resistance points. “Breaks look like buying opportunities.
Reports coming out soon
Friday marks the release of the Cattle on Feed report. Allendale said average guesses for the report are showing cattle on feed down 0.7% from last year, while placements are expected to be down 6.3% and marketings are expected to be down 1.7%.
With that, next Monday’s Cold Storage report is expected to show a 624 mln pound pork stock level for the end of August, Allendale said, compared to the five-year average of 593 mln pounds. Beef stocks are anticipated to come in at 471 mln pounds, above the five-year average of 454 mln pounds.
Tue 9/17/2019 4:31 PM
Boxed beef cutout values this afternoon were lower to sharply lower on light to moderate demand and moderate to heavy offerings, USDA said.
Choice fell 85 cents to $219.77/cwt.
Select went down $2.66 to $193.91.
In negotiated cash sales in Iowa-Minnesota, the USDA reported 11 head sold dressed at $160, with 40 head sold live at $102. In Nebraska, 451 head were sold dressed at $160.
"Hopes that the cash market will firm up in the weeks just ahead helped to suport," The Hightower Report said.
"News this morning that the U.S. and Japan have reached an initial trade agreement was very supportive as most are expecting Japan to gain increased access to U.S. ag products," Stewart-Peterson said. "Beef is likely to be a main beneficiary of the trade deal."
Cattle bounces higher
Cattle saw a big bounce today, as it saw its highest close since the end of August. The market started off with choppy and two-sided selling, The Hightower Report said, but still managed to trade sharply higher on the day.
"We haven't had anything new to feed the bull," Scott Shellady said of the lean hog market. "We didn't have anything come out and we have a decently strong dollar." He said the market is still very volatile about China, but right now the bulls don't have anything in the immediate-term to be excited.
Markets weaker Tuesday
Today saw some "pre-harvest rebalancing" meaning a weaker day in the markets overall, Brian Eley of Andersons Grain said. "Futures seemingly ran out of steam today after last week's rally."
In world news, Saudi Arabia's energy Minster reported their oil supply is back online following the weekend attacks. Crude oil's October contract is down $4.15/barrel.
"There wasn't anything bullish... so you see the market tailing off," Scott Shellady said about the corn market today. After the recent bounce, he said the market is overall starting to fall in sympathy with crude oil, he said. "A nice 22% bounce and now we are retrenching a little bit."
Trade saw the crop progress report as more bearish than expected, Michaela White of CHS Hedging said, as trade expected to see a decline in conditions. Conditions remained unchanged in yesterday's report.
Yesterday's gains were given back after good weather came across much of the U.S., Michaela White of CHS Hedging said. "Additional pressure comes as the market sees a lessening demand for soybeans as African Swine Fever continues to spread, with South Korea now reporting the disease," White said.
"Brazil soybean planting remains delayed due to ongoing dry conditions," Brian Eley of Anderson's Grain said, with Argentina struggling for rain as well. "Weather needs to be watched worldwide," he said.
With rains continuing, spring wheat harvest is "dragging on," Michaela White of CHS Hedging said. Some of the weakness in today's market came as it traded in sympathy with corn and beans as well.
"The dollar was weaker throughout today's session and that may have provided some underlying support," Stewart-Peterson said. "Today's close, in the middle range, really doesn't tell us much technically other than the market failed to follow through for a fourth-consecutive day of higher closes."