In this file:
· ‘By 2030, the US dairy and cattle industry will have collapsed,’ as microbial protein factories take over, predicts think tank
· The epitome of guilt-free eating? Meat alternatives entice two-thirds of US consumers, reports Innova Market Insights
‘By 2030, the US dairy and cattle industry will have collapsed,’ as microbial protein factories take over, predicts think tank
By Elaine Watson, Food Navigator USA
“By 2030, the US dairy and cattle industry will have collapsed,” as ‘precision fermentation’ – producing animal proteins more efficiently via microbes – disrupts food production as we know it, predicts think tank RethinkX, which critics argue is living in “a vegan fantasyland.”
A new wave of companies using a suite of engineered microorganisms (yeast, bacteria, fungi) capable of producing everything from collagen and gelatin (Geltor) to egg proteins (Clara Foods), heme proteins that can be used in plant-based meat (Impossible Foods, Triton Algae Innovations), milk proteins (Perfect Day, New Culture), proteins found in human breast milk (Triton), or a combination of these (Motif FoodWorks) in big fermentation tanks, could change the food industry as we know it, predicts RethinkX.*
“Precision fermentation is a process that enables the programming of micro-organisms to produce almost any complex organic molecule,” said the think tank, which was founded by Silicon Valley entrepreneur Tony Seba and tech investor Jamie Arbib to explore technologies with the potential to disrupt established industries.
“Due to rapid improvements in underlying biological and information technologies, the cost of precision fermentation development and production is dropping exponentially – from $1m per kilo in 2000 to about $100 today. Assuming existing technologies and using well-established cost curves, the report projects that these costs will fall to $10/kilo by 2023-25, and that these proteins will be five times cheaper than traditional animal proteins by 2030 and 10 times cheaper by 2035.”
Death by a thousand cuts?
By 2030, argues the report ‘Rethinking Food and Agriculture 2020-2030: The Second Domestication of Plants and Animals, the Disruption of the Cow, and the Collapse of Industrial Livestock Farming,’ “modern food products will cost less than half as much to produce as the animal-derived products they replace.
“By 2030 the market for ground beef by volume will have shrunk by 70%, steak market by 30% and dairy market by almost 90%. The markets for other cow products (leather, collagen, etc.) are likely to decline more than 90%. All together, demand for cow products will fall by more than 50%.”
Instead of growing a whole cow to break it down into products, precision fermentation designs the most efficient process to produce just the parts we need, which can be produced from a distibuted network of local production facilities using a fraction of the land, water, and inputs required to raise, feed and slaughter animals, it explained.
The resulting ingredients have the added appeal of consistent quality, a lack of price volatility, and security of supply, it added. "By 2030, we expect almost 90% of US dairy protein demand to come from precision fermentation alternatives."
A death spiral
As leather, collagen, milk and meat face competition from nature-identical analogs produced via microbial fermentation, demand for cow products will decrease, claim the authors, “triggering a death spiral of increasing prices for the industrial livestock industry, decreasing demand and reversing economies of scale.”
As for cell-cultured meat, “Industrial cattle farming industry will collapse long before we see modern technologies produce the ‘perfect’ cellular steak at a competitive price,” they argue.
“Projections are just that,” acknowledged RethinkX co-founder Jamie Arbib. “But we believe our framework, methodology and findings are more accurate than those produced by linear models, which risk locking in expensive, obsolete, and uncompetitive assets, technologies and skill sets.”
New Crop Capital, Unovis Partners: No accident that Tyson is calling itself a 'protein' company
So what do industry stakeholders and other commentators make of these bold predictions?
Dan Altschuler Malek, managing partner at Unovis Partners’ New Crop Capital venture fund – which has invested in companies in plant-based, cell-cultured or ‘cultivated’ meat, and proteins produced via microbial fermentation – said no one can predict with certainty what the food system will be like in 2030 or 2035, but said all three approaches had the potential to be disruptive.
"I don't believe in a winner takes all, whether it's companies or sources of protein or technologies. I also think geographically things will play out differently [depending on] consumer tastes and culinary heritage," he said, noting that, much will also depend on "infrastructure, purchasing power, and crop availability. But what's very exciting is that big players are making bold strategic decisions to get into this space."
It is also significant that some of the world's biggest meat companies - which have invested in plant-based and cell-cultured meat - are increasingly describing themselves as 'protein' companies, he added.
Asked whether growing animal proteins using engineered microbes in big fermentation tanks ran contrary to consumers' desire to return to traditional methods of food production, he noted that bucolic images of small farms often presented by food companies are a far cry from the realities of factory farming, while lots of things consumers already eat, from beer to yogurts are already produced using fermentation.
NMPF: Authors are living in ‘a vegan fantasyland’ ...
Jack Bobo: ‘Incredibly unlikely that this will happen in the timeframe they describe’ ...
He added: “Not even the companies in this space are suggesting they can scale at that speed."
‘Big food’ and technology: ‘Imagine if Monsanto had come up with the Impossible Burger’ ...
‘It’s very easy to describe this technology in a way that makes it seem pretty unappetizing’ ...
The epitome of guilt-free eating? Meat alternatives entice two-thirds of US consumers, reports Innova Market Insights
By Benjamin Ferrer, Food Ingredients First
17 Sep 2019
As many as 10 percent of Americans claim they always buy meat alternatives, while a further 36 percent claim to do so often or sometimes. This is according to new consumer research conducted by Innova Market Insights, which highlights how pervasive the trend has become in a relatively short time. The survey also found that only 22 percent purchase from the category on rare occasions.
“I think part of the appeal now is the discovery. It’s a new and interesting trend and many people are experimenting. But the products are improving so fast that I think many consumers will adopt the products and become repeat customers,” Lu Ann Williams, Director of Innovation at Innova Market Insights, tells FoodIngredientsFirst.
Ethical and environmental concerns are increasingly influential in the consumer purchasing behavior of meatless offerings, which adds new considerations to the marketing of meat alternatives. “Meat substitutes should now carry the right messages for both healthful and mindful customers, with plant-based diets emerging as the epitome of guilt-free eating,” suggests Williams.
Innovators in this market have recognized the rise of veganism – particularly within younger age groups – and almost three-quarters of new meat substitutes launched in the US in 2018 carried vegan claims. But the need to balance this with flexitarian demands is clear: in earlier research conducted in 2017, only 14 percent of meat alternatives purchasers named vegetarian/vegan positioning as a factor influencing their purchasing decision, with higher levels of interest in simpler claims related to naturally healthy formulation.
Meanwhile, the percentage of occasional meat purchasers represents flexitarians who choose to cut down on their meat intake in favor of a healthier lifestyle, notes Innova Market Insights.
As far as flexitarians are concerned, there have even been moves to develop hybrid products that combine meat properties with vegetables, while some alternatives even “bleed” or sizzle in order to emulate meat, ideas that would dismay many vegans. With such diverse attitudes in the customer base and no “one size fits all” solution, delivering choice is very much the name of the game.
“The number one focus, or certainly the most attention-grabbing part of the meat alternative sector in the US, has been burgers. If we compare that to Europe for example, we see a wider range of alternative formats such as chicken pieces, sausages and ground beef. I think the ‘bleed’ characteristic of meat replacements could be seen by many consumers as part of the ‘reason to believe’ that the alternative tastes good and compares to meat,” says Williams.
In August, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved soy leghemoglobin as a color additive in uncooked ground beef analog products. This follows meat-alternative company Impossible Foods’ 2018 petition to have the ingredient accepted as a color additive. Soy leghemoglobin imparts a reddish-brown color to meat analogues and is used by Impossible Foods as the “magic ingredient” to impart an optimized beefy flavor in its products.
Spotlight on meat alternatives ...
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