[Tues]: With trade negotiations restarting this week and a major need from China for imports, The Hightower report sees exports “picking up steam and pork product prices on the rise”… [Mon]: National carcass base up 13 cents… Iowa-Minnesota carcass base up 23 cents… USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon rose 45 cents… News of a continued collapse in pork cutout values last week “helped to pressure the market early,” The Hightower Report said. “However, many traders see pork product prices turning up this week if exports begin to pick up steam”…
Farm Commodity Newsletter/Iowa Farmer Today
Tue 9/17/2019 9:13 AM
Lean hogs - Many traders see pork prices turning up this week “if” exports begin to pick up steam, The Hightower Report says.
The Report also sees an uptrend as December hogs opened higher and traded up to the highest level since July 31.
With trade negotiations restarting this week and a major need from China for imports, The Hightower report sees exports “picking up steam and pork product prices on the rise.”
Swine disease hits Korea
The first case of African swine fever was confirmed near the South Korean border with North Korea with 4,000 pigs culled, says The Hightower report.
“China will auction of pork from its reserves this week to help fight skyrocketing pork prices”, says Joe Lardy, CHS Hedging.
As for cattle, The Hightower report says that cheap corn and cheap feeder cattle could spark active placements in the months just ahead.
Mon 9/16/2019 4:20 PM
In weighted average negotiated prices for barrows and gilts, USDA reported;
National carcass base up 13 cents to $45.08/cwt.
National live was up $3.26, to $37.22
Iowa-Minnesota carcass base up 23 cents to $45.76
USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon rose 45 cents to $68.66/cwt.
News of a continued collapse in pork cutout values last week “helped to pressure the market early,” The Hightower Report said. “However, many traders see pork product prices turning up this week if exports begin to pick up steam.”
“China pealing tariffs off of U.S. pork products recently, the expectation for increased exports has not given much support to the pork product prices, currently their lowest level since March,” Stewart-Peterson said.
Livestock sees mixed trade
Today’s cattle trade was “choppy and two-sided,” The Hightower Report said. “Talk of a short-term overbought condition plus fears of hefty supply ahead helped to pressure,” they said.
Meanwhile, the lean hog market fell sharply in the October contract as there are “ideas the market is overbought,” The Hightower Report said.
Crop progress report out
Today’s Crop Progress Report showed corn condition unchanged from last week, reported at 55% Good/Excellent. Soybeans saw a one point downgrade to 54% G/E, from 55% last week.
This morning, Mike Zuzolo of Global Commodity Analytics said reports that President Trump was invited by North Korea to Pyongyang may be a sign of progress of a trade deal with China. “We need to have North Korea and to a lesser degree Hong Kong/Taiwan issues improving in terms of foreign policy—as I continue to think that the President’s foreign and trade policies are tied-together if not one in the same,” he said.
Oliver Sloup said if the corn market can achieve consecutive closes up, he anticipates some short-covering for the December contract. With funds short, positive momentum may bring that rally, he said.
“Continue to price corn on rallies,” John Payne of Daniel’s Trading said. “If you are waiting for the "green light" to sell product, you will get it only when yield is more certain.”
“I am getting the feeling the market is somewhat leery of the yields coming worse than expected,” John Payne of Daniel’s Trading said. “Short covering is a theme as delivery is in the rear view, end users are stuck in a spot between crop years. Last year, the crop was ready to be harvested in a lot of the corn belt at this time.”
“The soybean market traded both sides with strength coming from the crude oil and soyoil oil markets,” Ami L. Heesch of CHS Hedging said. “Prices drew additional support from this morning’s soybean sale to China, with thoughts of easing tensions between the US and China. Pressure stemmed from lack of demand and improving weather conditions.”
Short covering moved up the wheat market today, Ami L. Heesch of CHS Hedging said. There are also added concerns about the product coming out of Australia and Argentina due to dryness, which is adding to the support.
Heesch added that the northern plains is expected to see some warm and dry weather across the area, which should allow the continuation of spring wheat harvest, as “very little was done last week.”