… China has been sanctioning American farmers in an effort to convince traditional Republican voting counties and states to vote against the party. They successfully managed to turn numerous red counties blue during the November midterm elections, which saw the promised “blue wave” in the House of Representatives… China needs to get Trump out of the White House in 2020 in hopes for a return to status quo...
China Basically Admits It’s Been Sanctioning U.S. Soy
Kenneth Rapoza, Senior Contributor, Forbes
Sep 13, 2019
China and the U.S. agreed yet again to a cease fire that may or may not last until October 15. The “interim” pause to U.S. tariff hikes includes China importing more soy and pork, something they’ve promised in the past but never delivered on.
China newswire Xinhua revealed something interest in an article after market hours in Hong Kong today, saying that Beijing “will allow Chinese businesses to purchase a certain amount of soybeans and pork from the United States.” Until now, China has been drastically increasing its purchase of Brazilian soybeans. Last year they imported somewhere between 10 million and 13 million tons more soy from Brazil than the previous year.
The word “allow” is key. It suggests what many U.S. soy exporters have quietly expected all along, that Beijing does not want Chinese companies to buy American soy even though their 25% tariff does not make U.S. soy any more expensive than Brazilian soy.
China has been sanctioning American farmers in an effort to convince traditional Republican voting counties and states to vote against the party. They successfully managed to turn numerous red counties blue during the November midterm elections, which saw the promised “blue wave” in the House of Representatives.
“In Tennessee, we have seen Chinese ag buyers come in and say they want to buy, but the trade war is prohibitive,” says John Scannapieco, a shareholder in the Nashville office of Baker Donelson and chair of their global business team.
Two things are worth noting here. First, American farmers must diversify away from China. Too much of their product line is directed towards the Chinese market with no alternatives. It was a lousy business model from the get-go.
Second, China has a busy October. Their 70th Anniversary of the Communist Party celebration, known as Nation Day, takes place on October 1. Hong Kong activists have already planned another million-strong rally against Beijing on that day.
Hong Kong remains a key variable in the trade war.
Investors will spend the next few weeks weighing whether or not President Trump caves to the likes of Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin, who is warning that tariffs across the entire Made in China landscape could bring about a recession. Mnuchin is the good cop on Trump’s trade negotiating team. A recession would kill Trump’s chance at reelection, so some on Wall Street think the president may call it quits and punt on the December tariffs, too.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said there is no recession in sight. But Mnuchin thinks otherwise.
BNP Paribas’s chief U.S. economist, Daniel Ahn, agrees with Powell that the U.S. economy would trough, “but not enough to cause a recession,” he says.
On the China side, they have to get through the first week of October and the promised escalation of protests in Hong Kong. Xi Jinping has too much on his plate to deal with changes in the trade relationship. Once the Hong Kong picture is clearer, they either return to negotiations at some point next month or try to make Trump look bad by convincing American companies that without them, they are doomed.
China needs to get Trump out of the White House in 2020 in hopes for a return to status quo...
Chinese-backed newspaper insert tries to undermine Iowa farm support for Trump, trade war
Donnelle Eller, Des Moines Register (IA)
Sept. 24, 2018
A Chinese government-run media company's four-page supplement in the Sunday Des Moines Register was intended to undermine farm-country support for President Donald Trump's escalating trade war, experts say.
The China Daily insert touted the mutual benefits of U.S.-China trade, built on concern about long-term market losses, and highlighted President Xi Jinping's three-decades-long relationship with Iowa.
"I think it's trying to maximize pressure on the administration to change its trade policies toward China by attempting to show White House and Republicans that they're going to pay a price with the mid-terms," said David Skidmore, a political science professor at Drake University.
The government-backed English newspaper regularly buys inserts in U.S. newspapers, including the New York Times and the Washington Post, experts say.
Skidmore and others questioned, though, whether the supplement will carry a political punch.
"What will influence farmers will be their bottom lines — whether trade policies are hurting them or helping them — and not what they read in a supplement in the Register," he said.
Iowa farmers are projected to lose up to $2.2 billion from U.S. trade wars, with hits to spending that could ripple through the economy, hitting state tax receipts, jobs and industries such as manufacturing, a new Iowa State University study shows.
Kirk Leeds, CEO of the Iowa Soybean Association, said he's not surprised that China would target Iowa as well as other key election states.
"I think they're very aware of where the red and the blue states are," he said.
Iowa holds the nation's first-in-the-nation presidential caucus, and is often key in kick-starting national political campaigns.
The state, like other ag-strongholds, backed Trump in the 2016 election.
"I think China believes that if the Democrats were to take hold of at least the House, the president would be easier to work with," Leeds said. "At least, they believe he would encounter more criticism" and less freedom to up the trade ante.
Trade already could be having an impact in some races, Skidmore said...
more, including links