[Mon]: “If China is a strong buyer of U.S. pork in the months ahead, the longer-term trend should remain up as there is significant need,” The Hightower Report said. China’s spot pig prices continue to rise… [Fri]: National carcass base down 64 cents… Iowa-Minnesota carcass base up 22 cents… USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon fell $2.26... The hog trade is “all about China,” Virginia McGathey of McGathey Commodities said, adding the market was already oversold. She said African Swine Fever issues are continuing to creep up, and any info over the weekend should help the market move higher…
Farm Commodity Newsletter/Iowa Farmer Today
Mon 9/16/2019 9:07 AM
Lean hogs - “If China is a strong buyer of U.S. pork in the months ahead, the longer-term trend should remain up as there is significant need,” The Hightower Report said. China’s spot pig prices continue to rise.
The Hightower Report said that it seems likely that U.S. pork values will begin to rise soon. They suggest buying February hogs near the $73.95 mark with risk to $71.15.
Friday action leaves cattle possibly bearish
More pigs have been culled in Japan’s Saitama Prefecture, north of Tokyo, due to African swine fever, Allendale said.
Friday’s weak technical action leaves the market with continued concerns about hefty supply of cattle, The Hightower Report said. They are also concerned about the possibility of increasing supply going into next year which may impact the market.
Fri 9/13/2019 4:18 PM
In weighted average negotiated prices for barrows and gilts, USDA reported;
National carcass base down 64 cents to $45.67/cwt.
National live was down $2.71, to $34.90
Iowa-Minnesota carcass base up 22 cents to $46.47
USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon fell $2.26 to $68.21/cwt.
Both the December and February contracts were limit-up for most of the day today, after short covering came in to the market, The Hightower Report. The China news was the biggest factor, as it is seen as a goodwill gesture ahead of trade talks.
The hog trade is “all about China,” Virginia McGathey of McGathey Commodities said, adding the market was already oversold. She said African Swine Fever issues are continuing to creep up, and any info over the weekend should help the market move higher.
Lean hogs surging, cattle steadying
Lean hogs continued to trade limit-up in most contracts today, as China announced there would be no additional tariffs on the commodity for the time being, Kathleen Murphy of CHS Hedging said.
Sluggish trade is steading the live cattle market, Virginia McGathey of McGathey Commodities said. “We are a far cry from where we were last Friday where had the big push to the downside,” but she believes the downside is solidly in right now.
China trade news boosts beans
With China announcing there would be no new tariffs put on soybeans, strength continued in the grain markets, Kathleen Murphy of CHS Hedging said.
Meanwhile, President Trump announced he will delay a 5% tariff increase by two weeks (to Oct. 15) this week, as both countries show signs of goodwill, CHS Hedging said.
Today was the last day for September contracts in the grains.
The corn market held onto support found from a possible ethanol demand boost, Kathleen Murphy of CHS Hedging said. “According to an article on Bloomberg, President Trump has ‘tentatively’ agreed with Midwest Senators on a plan to help boost ethanol production,” she said. “However, the deal is not yet set and may change when Trump meets with representatives from oil producing states.”
Kylee Phillips of The Andersons said corn is seeing benefits from dryness in South America. However, she warned that the market may react differently if yields on the early corn harvest are higher than expected.
Soybeans are still riding high as the markets embrace the trade war and yield headlines. “. A private exporter’s sales report this morning along with news of a possible “interim deal” gave the markets some positive news to trade off of,” Kathleen Murphy of CHS Hedging said.
“China is buying and that is rallying the market,” Virginia McGathey of McGathey Commodities said. “Right now the market is looking very strong.” There could be profit taking coming up, she warned, but things look strong going into harvest.
Wheat’s recent rally comes on technical indicators, Virginia McGathey of McGathey Commodities said. “All the data around wheat is kind of bearish, so this rally is technical more than anything else,” she said.
The wheat markets endured some profit taking today, as supplies continue to grow, CHS Hedging said. However, wheat stayed mostly untouched by yesterday’s WASDE report.