[Fri]: Total pork sales for last week showed an increase of 17 percent over last year. More important, half of it was to China, making it the largest single week of Chinese pork purchases since May, according to Allendale… [Thurs]: National carcass base was $1.25 lower… Iowa-Minnesota carcass base fell $1.86… USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon were down $1.98… “In response to the delay of tariffs, China began to make inquiries about buying U.S. ag products ahead of the next round of trade talks, including pork,” Stewart-Peterson said. “Even with the current 62% tariff, U.S. pork exports to China reached 240,000 tons through the month of July, a 51% increase from a year ago”… “The (hog) market opened and closed limit-up,” the Hightower Report said…

 

Farm Commodity Newsletter/Iowa Farmer Today

 

Fri 9/13/2019 9:17 AM

 

Lean hogs - It seems likely that U.S. pork values will begin to rise, which will be necessary to rationalize the turn up in futures, according to The Hightower Report.

 

Total pork sales for last week showed an increase of 17 percent over last year. More important, half of it was to China, making it the largest single week of Chinese pork purchases since May, according to Allendale.

 

Cattle in an uptrend

 

The cattle market remains in a strong, short-term uptrend while pork values are at their lowest level since March 15 so it will be important for the bull camp to see values start to pick up steam, according to The Hightower Report.

 

On trade, the rhetoric is positive right now and maybe it will be good from here forward, but we have seen this type of rhetoric on trade twice in the last nine months so some pessimism may be warranted, according to John Payne.

 

Thu 9/12/2019 4:53 PM

 

In weighted average negotiated prices for barrows and gilts, USDA reported;

 

National carcass base was $1.25 lower to $46.05/cwt.

National live was down 59 cents to $38.52

Iowa-Minnesota carcass base fell $1.86 to $45.82

 

USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon were down $1.98 to $70.47/cwt.

 

“In response to the delay of tariffs, China began to make inquiries about buying U.S. ag products ahead of the next round of trade talks, including pork,” Stewart-Peterson said. “Even with the current 62% tariff, U.S. pork exports to China reached 240,000 tons through the month of July, a 51% increase from a year ago.”

 

“U.S. pork export sales for the week ending Sept. 5 came in at 21,900 tonnes, compared with the average of the previous four weeks of 21,221,” the Hightower Report said. “China was a buyer of 10,878 tonnes. Cumulative sales for 2019 have reached 1,107,600 tonnes, up 16.1% from last year's pace.”

 

Hogs go limit-up after tariff delays

 

“The (hog) market opened and closed limit-up,” the Hightower Report said. “News of the Trump Administration delaying the increase on China tariffs by 15 days to Oct. 15 was followed by news that China was looking in to buying US pork and soybeans as a goodwill gesture ahead of meetings and this helped to drive the market higher.

 

Cattle markets saw buying trends Thursday, with markets reaching their highest levels since last month. “December cattle closed moderately higher on the session and closed near the high,” the Hightower Report said. “The buying pushed the market up to the highest level since Aug. 30.”

 

WASDE, trade bring optimism to prices

 

Crop markets saw a boost from U.S.-China trade optimism. “After President Trump’s early morning tweet that China would be buying large amounts of U.S. agricultural goods, Reuter’s reported the sale of 600,000 tonnes of U.S. beans to China from the PNW,” Michaela White, with CHS Hedging, said. “This has not been confirmed by the USDA at this time.”

 

“The much anticipated monthly Supply and Demand report didn’t disappoint from a negative as (corn) yield was higher than expected at 168.2 bu an acre, as compared to the pre-report estimate of 166.7,” Stewart-Peterson said. “Last year’s figure was 176.4. Beginning stocks were raised from 2.360 bln to 2.445 bln. Production is forecast at 13.8 bln, 100 mln less than last month.”

 

Corn

 

"Corn traded higher today, drawing strength from soybeans and a neutral WASDE report,” Michaela White, with CHS Hedging, said. “The U.S. yield was lowered from the prior month, but the 2019-2020 ending stocks were raised slightly. The December contract closed above the 20-day moving average of $3.66 ½ for the first time since early July.”

 

Analysts were reacting to the numbers in the latest USDA report. “Demand numbers were held mostly steady with a small adjustment lower by just 25 mln bushels for ethanol,” ADM Investor Services said. “Beginning stocks were higher and production was a bit lower and this left ending stocks up slightly.”

 

Soybeans

 

“Soybeans traded explosively higher today on positive U.S. China news,” Michaela White, with CHS Hedging, said. “The strength in beans comes from positive news on U.S. China relations, good export sales this morning, and a friendly USDA report. The November bean contract closed above its 100-day moving average of $8.86 ½.”

 

“As of Sept. 5, cumulative soybean sales stand at 19.7% of the USDA forecast for 2019/2020 (Next) Marketing Year versus a 5 year average of 40.3%,” ADM Investor Services said. “Sales of 750,000 metric tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast.”

 

Wheat

 

Wheat was higher Thursday as well, mostly due to the gains in other crops. “The wheat markets were higher today, drawing support from strong gains in corn and beans,” Michaela White, with CHS Hedging, said. “Today’s report wasn’t impressive for wheat, with the U.S. stocks unchanged and world ending stocks raised by 1.5 mln tonnes.”

 

The trends with the U.S. dollar were working against wheat prices. “A firmer U.S. dollar is keeping U.S. wheat prices in check, however, late in the session the dollar reversed lower after sharp gains in the morning and this may have promoted short covering,” Stewart-Peterson said.

 

iowafarmertoday.com