… Beef production is reduced from the previous month primarily on slower expected pace of fed cattle slaughter and lighter carcass weights in the fourth quarter. The pork production forecast is reduced on the current rate of slaughter in the third quarter and slightly lighter carcass weights…
WASDE Lowers Corn Production by a Bushel but Raises Ending Stocks
via FarmJournal's AgPro - September 12, 2019
LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The forecast for 2019 total red meat and poultry production is lowered from last month as reduced beef, pork, and turkey production forecasts more than offset higher broiler production. Beef production is reduced from the previous month primarily on slower expected pace of fed cattle slaughter and lighter carcass weights in the fourth quarter. The pork production forecast is reduced on the current rate of slaughter in the third quarter and slightly lighter carcass weights. USDA’s Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report will be released on September 27 and provide information on producer farrowing intentions into early 2020. The turkey forecast is reduced on lower expected third- and fourthquarter production. The broiler production forecast is raised on recent production data and continued growth in average bird weights for the remainder of the year. The 2019 egg production forecast is raised slightly on hatchery flock data.
For 2020, the total red meat and poultry forecast is raised from the previous month on higher expected beef and broiler production. Beef production is raised from last month as higher expected first-half 2020 marketings support higher fed cattle slaughter in 2020. First-half carcass weights are also expected to support increased beef production. The broiler production forecast is raised from the previous month on expectations of a higher proportion of heavy bird weights. Pork, turkey, and egg production forecasts are unchanged from the previous month.
Beef import and export forecasts for 2019 are reduced, reflecting recent trade data; however, no changes are made to the forecasts for 2020. The 2019 and 2020 pork export forecasts are raised from the previous month on recent trade data and expectations of continued strong global demand for U.S. pork products. The 2019 broiler export forecast is adjusted higher reflecting recent trade data, but no change is made to the 2020 export forecast. No changes are made to the 2019 and 2020 turkey trade forecasts.
The cattle price forecast for 2019 is lowered on current prices and expectations of continued price weakness; the 2020 forecast is also reduced. Hog price forecasts are reduced slightly for 2019 and first-half 2020. The 2019 broiler price forecast is raised on recent price strength, but no change is made to 2020 price forecasts. Turkey price forecasts are unchanged for both 2019 and 2020. The 2019 and 2020 egg price forecasts are raised from last month on strong demand that is expected to carry into the next year.
The milk production forecast for 2019 is raised as stronger growth in milk per cow more than offsets forecast lower cow numbers. For 2020, the milk production forecast is reduced from the previous month on slower expected growth in dairy cow numbers; however this is partly offset by slightly higher forecast milk per cow. The 2019 and 2020 fat basis import forecasts are lowered on recent trade data and expectations of slower butterfat imports. Fat basis export forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are reduced from last month on weaker expected global demand for U.S. butterfat products. The 2019 skim-solids basis import forecast is raised from the previous month on higher-than-expected imports of milk protein concentrates and a number of other dairy products. This strength is expected to carry over into 2020 and the 2020 skim-solids basis import forecast is raised. The skim-solids basis export forecast for 2019 is reduced from last month on weakness in a number of dairy products, but the 2020 skim-solids basis export forecast is raised primarily on expected strong global demand for lactose.
For 2019 and 2020, cheese, nonfat dry milk (NDM), and whey prices are raised from the previous month, but the price forecast for butter is reduced. The 2019 and 2020 the Class III price forecasts are raised from last month on higher cheese and whey prices. The 2019 and 2020 Class IV price forecasts are lowered from the previous month as lower forecast butter prices more than offset higher NDM prices. The 2019 all milk price is forecast raised to $18.35 per cwt, and the all milk price forecast for 2020 is raised to $18.85 per cwt.
COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2019/20 U.S. corn outlook is for reduced production, lower corn used for ethanol, and slightly higher ending stocks. Corn production is forecast at 13.799 billion bushels, down 102 million from last month on a lower yield forecast. Corn supplies are down from last month, as a smaller crop more than offsets larger beginning stocks due to lower estimated exports and corn used for ethanol for 2018/19. Corn used for ethanol for 2019/20 is lowered 25 million bushels. With use falling more than supply, corn ending stocks are up 9 million bushels from last month. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $3.60 per bushel.
This month’s 2019/20 foreign coarse grain outlook is for virtually unchanged production, with fractionally lower trade and stocks relative to last month. Ukraine corn production is lowered, as dry conditions during the month of August reduce yield prospects for filling corn. EU corn production is unchanged, as reductions for France and Germany offset increases for Bulgaria and Romania. Barley production is raised for Russia, Ukraine, the EU, and Kazakhstan, but lowered for Australia and Canada.
Major global coarse grain trade changes for 2019/20 include barley export increases for Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and Russia, with a partly offsetting reduction for Australia. For 2018/19, corn exports for Brazil are raised for the local marketing year beginning March 2019, based on record large shipments during the month of August. Foreign corn ending stocks for 2019/20 are lower relative to last month, mostly reflecting declines for Brazil, Ukraine, Mexico, Paraguay, and Chile.