In this file:
· Time To Buy Cattle?
· Higher Cattle Prices in 2020
Time To Buy Cattle?
Oliver-Sloup, Blue Line Futures
via AgWeb - Sep 10, 2019
Agricultural commodities caught a much-needed break today, news that John Bolton is no longer the National Security Adviser. After that headline was one from China that stated China would be buying US agricultural products to sweeten a potential deal. At first glance this is the recycled headline we have seen many times and may not mean much, but if you’ve been paying attention to the trade talks you know that this is a BIG deal. Bolton was a notorious hawk and a major headwind for meaningful negotiations with China. The trade dispute with China has little to do with our exports of beef, but it does shift the overall sentiment and money flow in the Ag space.
Yesterday morning we managed to rally on the back of bad news (lower cash), outside of the final 10 minutes it was a constructive session. Today we rallied on good news, if cattle futures can feed off today’s momentum and achieve follow through, we could see that help stabilize a crumbling cash market. The bottom is a process, not a point, but we believe that the process has started over the last two sessions. For live cattle futures, we continue to favor the April contract for a longer-term trade, front months will likely remain more volatile. We remain skeptical on feeders and wouldn’t be as aggressive on them...
Higher Cattle Prices in 2020
Source: Idaho Farm Bureau Federation
via Russell Nemetz, Land & Livestock Report/AgInfo.net - September 11, 2019
Beef production in this country continues to grow and consumer demand for that beef also is on the rise.
Demand means higher prices for beef cattle producers, but also for shoppers at the nation’s supermarkets.
The US Department of Agriculture says cattle prices average at least 1-percent higher than last year and for the year 2020, could go up more than 2-percent.
July market prices, just released Friday, show a steady rise according to the USDA showing a classic supply and demand model for the beef market.
“The retail choice-composite beef price for July was estimated at $6.15 cents per pound. That price per pound is up from $6.00 per pound from a year ago. So retail beef prices are on the rise,” according to USDA Economist Seanicaa Herron.
According to the USDA, prices are up 2.5 percent from a year ago. But for this year, all cuts of beef, reveal a hike between 1/2 percent and 1.5 percent. Forecasters say for the coming year, beef prices could be up another 1-percent.
Idaho Farm Bureau Commodities Director Zak Miller says he’s kept an eye on the market and thinks prices had nowhere to go, but up.
“I think cattle prices are showing a short-term increase in the form of a correction from the Tyson fire a couple of weeks ago. It’s always encouraging to see upward ticks in the price movements but unfortunately, I expect to still see bearish and downward market moves,” said Miller.
Miller thinks producers and investors should look closely at long-term planning with the current markets, cautioning that beef-market volatility could still swing either way.
As Miller pointed out, the Tyson slaughterhouse fire on August 9th has impacted the beef market, driving up profit margins for processors while paradoxically slowing price hikes for cattle.
In Emmett at 7-Rivers Livestock, the modest spike in beef prices has not gone unnoticed. For the first time this summer, cattlemen are making a little money. Auctioneer Eric Drees says producers are encouraged.
“The market has found its footing. We hope we won’t see major slip backs. The fundamentals are there for the market to stay steady and get stronger. We're seeing packer manipulation right now, they’ve got total control of the market. The good news is that demand for beef is good and exports are good,” said Drees.
Drees says there are other bright spots on the horizon, President Donald Trump’s trade agreement with the European will drive up the value of beef. He says the economy remains steady and consumer demand is brisk.
Due in part to the fire that nearly destroyed the Tyson slaughterhouse in Holcomb, Kansas...
more, including audio [1:30 min.]