[Weds]: Hogs appear to be in a position to trade higher in the months ahead, The Hightower Report said. They cited the “tremendous need for pork” in China, which means the possibility of expanded U.S. exports coming up… [Tues]: National carcass base was $1.72 lower… Iowa-Minnesota carcass base fell $1.75… USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon were up 8 cents… “China's pork shortage will not change anytime soon and imports from the U.S. or otherwise will likely increase in a big way down the road,” Stewart-Peterson said… “Chinese regulators have released thousands of tonnes of emergency pork reserves in an effort to relieve extreme tightness and to help ease the price rally with China pig prices up 107% so far this year,” The Hightower Report said…
Farm Commodity Newsletter/Iowa Farmer Today
Wed 9/11/2019 8:45 AM
Lean hogs - Hogs appear to be in a position to trade higher in the months ahead, The Hightower Report said. They cited the “tremendous need for pork” in China, which means the possibility of expanded U.S. exports coming up.
China is making moves to release cold storage stocks and reduce tariffs on U.S. pork, The Hightower Report said, meaning they are making sure they have enough pork supplies for the winter. The country is also trying to expand pork production for next year.
China headlines livestock news
A new case of African Swine Fever was reported in China, this time in the northwestern region of Ningxia, Allendale said. Of the 226 hogs on the affected farm, 13 have died.
Meanwhile, Brazil is prepared to send more meat to China, after the Asian country approved 25 meat plants for export. Of those plants, 17 are beef and six are chicken, with one pork and donkey.
Tue 9/10/2019 4:38 PM
In weighted average negotiated prices for barrows and gilts, USDA reported:
National carcass base was $1.72 lower to $48.93/cwt.
National live was down 30 cents to $40.66
Iowa-Minnesota carcass base fell $1.75 to $48.92
USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon were up 8 cents to $71.99/cwt.
“China's pork shortage will not change anytime soon and imports from the U.S. or otherwise will likely increase in a big way down the road,” Stewart-Peterson said. “Traders will be monitoring the U.S./China trade situation very closely.”
China’s pig prices were up, with the country releasing emergency pork reserves to try to stabilize the situation.
“Chinese regulators have released thousands of tonnes of emergency pork reserves in an effort to relieve extreme tightness and to help ease the price rally with China pig prices up 107% so far this year,” The Hightower Report said.
Cattle stable, pork struggles
Cattle markets appeared to be stabilizing on Tuesday.
“While prices are not exactly springing off of yesterday's lows, cattle are at least stabilizing near long-term support,” Stewart-Peterson said. “A few feed lots caved to lower cash trade yesterday though prices should creep higher by the end of the week.”
Meanwhile, domestic pork prices continue to slide due to the surge in pork inventory and an export market that is not able to handle the increased supplies, at least at this time, Stewart-Peterson said.
Sales rumor gives soybeans a boost
Soybeans saw sources of optimism on a couple of fronts Tuesday.
“A rumor was working its way through the wires this morning that China is expected to agree to buy more U.S. ag products,” Barchart.com reported. “A private export sale of 138,000 MT of ’19/’20 soybeans were reported to Mexico by USDA this morning.”
Michaela White, with CHS Hedging, said corn drew strength from yesterday’s crop progress report that showed lower than anticipated crop conditions, as well as a crop that remains far behind on maturity. Additional strength comes from short covering in the market after reaching oversold levels.
The USDA announced an export sale of 278,200 tonnes of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 2019-2020 marketing year, reported Michaela White, with CHS Hedging.
“Support was tied to another flash sale announcement of 278,000 tonnes corn sold to Mexico this morning on top of yesterday’s 651,000 tonnes,” ADM Investor Services said. “Buying was also tied to yesterday’s surprise crop condition report coming in at 55% good/excellent down from last week's 58% and compared to last year's 68%.”
“Soybeans rocketed higher today, and the November contract closed above the 20-day moving average of $8.67 3/4,” White said. “The strength in soybeans comes as rumors circulate that China plans to buy more U.S. soybeans while they continue to engage in trade talks with the U.S.”
“The market surged higher at mid-session after headlines from the South China Morning Post stated that China is expected to buy more U.S. agricultural goods in hopes of a delay in a series of tariffs that will take effect in October and December and the easing of a supply ban against Chinese telecom giant Huawei Technologies,” ADM Investor Services reported.
“The wheat markets were higher across the board today,” White said. “The strength in wheat comes from spillover strength in corn, as well as short covering. Both December Chicago and December Kansas City closed above their 20-day moving averages of $4.71 1/4 and $4 respectively.”
World wheat offers have seen a slight uptick with concerns starting to develop with Australia and Argentina’s wheat production, ADM Investor Services said. ABARES lowered their 2019-20 Australian wheat production estimate to 19.1 mln tonnes compared to the latest USDA estimate at 21.0 mln.