[Tues]: The market awaits aggressive imports from China but with the trade war dragging on China is likely to attempt purchases from other sources first, according to The Hightower Report… [Mon]: National carcass base down $1.42… Iowa-Minnesota carcass base down $1.90… USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon fell $1.41… “Traders have all but given up that there is going to be a resolution in 2019,” Virginia McGathey of McGathey Commodities said… “Chinese regulators have released thousands of emergency pork reserves in an effort to relieve extreme tightness and help ease the price rally with China pig prices up 107% so far this year,” The Hightower Report said…
Farm Commodity Newsletter/Iowa Farmer Today
Tue 9/10/2019 9:19 AM
Lean hogs - The market awaits aggressive imports from China but with the trade war dragging on China is likely to attempt purchases from other sources first, according to The Hightower Report.
U.S. Secretary of Treasury Steven Mnuchin said he didn’t see signs of a recession and expressed hope that trade talks with China will result in an agreement soon, according to Allendale.
Cattle Still Struggling While Pork Awaits China
The cattle market is still looking for a low while the pork market awaits news of exports to China, according to The Hightower Report.
China granted export licenses to 25 Brazilian meatpacking plants (17 for beef, 6 for chicken, 1 for pork and 1 other), according to Allendale.
Mon 9/9/2019 4:08 PM
In weighted average negotiated prices for barrows and gilts, USDA reported;
National carcass base down $1.42 to $50.69/cwt.
National live was down 9 cents, moving to $40.64
Iowa-Minnesota carcass base down $1.90 to $50.72
USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon fell $1.41 at $71.91/cwt.
“Traders have all but given up that there is going to be a resolution in 2019,” Virginia McGathey of McGathey Commodities said. Shutdowns on the east coast are another negative factor pressuring lean hogs, she said, as the market looks for any positives to turn things around.
“Chinese regulators have released thousands of emergency pork reserves in an effort to relieve extreme tightness and help ease the price rally with China pig prices up 107% so far this year,” The Hightower Report said.
Livestock down again to open week
The lean hog market was sharply lower early in the day as the market followed through on Friday’s limit-down trading. However, traders seem to have eased off a bit, as the contracts finished well up from their lows.
Despite a late push up today, the cattle market still fell. The Hightower Report said the December cattle contract hit a new contract low early today.
Quiet trade sees wheat jump
Until Thursday, Louis Kaelin of The Andersons said he expects some quiet trade ahead of the upcoming WASDE report. There is the chance for some revised acreage, yield and production numbers as well in that report.
Today’s crop progress report saw an overall decline in corn. The corn crop was rated at 55% Good/Excellent, down three percentage points from last week. However, soybean condition held steady at 55% Good/Excellent.
The corn trade “couldn’t sustain that momentum” it saw early on in trade today, Louis Kaelin of The Andersons said. He said funds are holding a short position and with weather looking like it will be relatively normal for the rest of the month, which may be bearish for those looking for an early frost.
Guesses for Thursday’s USDA yield estimate are starting to come in, with The Hightower Report expecting the estimate to come in around 166.5 bushels per acre. That would mark a 3 bpa decrease from August’s report.
“With a continued warmer-than-normal forecast for the Midwest all the way out to September 22 and a lack of progress on China trade, the short-term forces for the market look bearish,” ADM Investor Services said. “Trade focus this week will be on the USDA Crop Production and Supply/Demand update.”
Guesses for the upcoming WASDE report are coming in, with yield estimates expected to come in at 47.1 bushels per acre, which would mark a 1.4 bpa decrease from August, The Hightower Report said.
Australia cut their wheat production forecast by nearly 10% today, CHS Hedging said. “Australia pegged production of the country's largest rural export at 19.2 million tonnes, down from its previous estimate in June of 21.9 million tonnes,” they said.
John Payne, Daniel’s Trading, said he “sees nothing but downside in the Chicago contract.” He noted that while the balance sheet is “somewhat tight,” it doesn’t need to trade 60 points over French wheat and 110 points over corn. “If it hangs up here i think that is a major "tell" that rains have a rally in them on all of this money printing like we have seen in the metals,” he said.